ANALYSIS AND MAPPING OF CLIMATE CHANGE RISK AND VULNERABILITY IN CENTRAL RIFT VALLEY OF ETHIOPIA

There is growing demand for spatially explicit information among stakeholders across public and private institutions regarding vulnerability to climate change at the local scale. This study was conducted over 16 districts in Central Rift Valley (CRV) of Ethiopia, to determine the degree of climate risk and the relative vulnerability of the districts, to climate change and, thereby identify vulnerable hotspots. A biophysical and socio-economic indicator based integrated vulnerability assessment technique was used to map climate change vulnerability. Indicators were generated and analysed under three components of vulnerability, namely exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity; and finally aggregated into a single vulnerability index. The values of all indicators were normalised by considering their functional relationship with vulnerability, and expert judgment was then used to assign weights to all indicators. Aggregate vulnerability index (VI) was finally determined from the weighted sum of all indicators and mapped over the 16 districts. Selti, Dodotana-Sire and Tiyo districts had relatively high vulnerability to climate change; while Arsinegele, Adamitulu-Jido-Kombolcha and Dugda-Bora were the least vulnerable. The rest of the districts had medium vulnerability to changing climate. This study shows that vulnerability mapping is crucial in determining the varying degrees of vulnerability of different localities, and generating information that can help researchers, policy makers, private and public institutions in formulating site-specific adaptation strategies and prioritising adaptation investments to the most vulnerable hotspots.Il ya une demande sans cesse croissante parmi les partenaires \ue0 travers les institutions publiques et priv\ue9es, de l\u2019information spatiale explicite concernant la vuln\ue9rabilit\ue9 au changement climatique \ue0 l\u2019\ue9chelle locale. Cette \ue9tude \ue9tait conduite sur 16 districts de la Vall\ue9e du Rift Central (VRC) en Ethiopie, pour d\ue9terminer le degr\ue9 de risque climatique et la vuln\ue9rabilit\ue9 relative de ces districts au changement climatique et del\ue0, identifier les sites les plus vuln\ue9rables. Une technique d\u2019\ue9valuation du degr\ue9 de vulnerabilit\ue9 bas\ue9 sur un indicateur int\ue9grant les aspects biophysiques et socio-\ue9conomiques \ue9tait utilis\ue9e pour \ue9tablir la carte de vuln\ue9rabilit\ue9 au changements climatique. Les indicateurs \ue9taient g\ue9n\ue9r\ue9s et analys\ue9s sous trois composantes de vuln\ue9rabilit\ue9\ua0: exposition, sensitivit\ue9 et capacit\ue9 adaptive; et finalement agr\ue9g\ue9s en un seul indice de vuln\ue9rabilit\ue9. Les valeurs de tous les indicateurs \ue9taient normalis\ue9es en consid\ue9rant leur relation fonctionnelle avec la vuln\ue9rabilit\ue9, et ensuite, un jugement expert \ue9tait utilis\ue9 pour leur assigner un poids. L\u2019indice de vuln\ue9rabilit\ue9 cumulative (VI) \ue9tait finalement d\ue9termin\ue9 de la somme du poids de tous les indicateurs et cartographi\ue9 sur l\u2019\ue9tendue de seize districts. Les districts de Selti, Dodotana-Sire et Tiyo avaient relativement une vuln\ue9rabilit\ue9 \ue9lev\ue9e au changements climatique, pendant que Arsinegele, Adamitulu-Jido-Kombolcha et Dugda-Bora \ue9taient les districts les moins vuln\ue9rables. Le reste des districts pr\ue9sentaient une vuln\ue9rabilit\ue9 moyenne au changement climatique. Cette \ue9tude montre que la cartographie de la vuln\ue9rabilit\ue9 est cruciale dans la d\ue9termination des divers niveaux de vuln\ue9rabilit\ue9 des diff\ue9rentes localit\ue9s et la g\ue9n\ue9ration de l\u2019information pouvant aider les chercheurs, les d\ue9cideurs politiques, les institutions priv\ue9es et publiques dans la formulation des strat\ue9gies sp\ue9cifiques d\u2019adaptation et \ue0 la formulation des priorit\ue9s d\u2019investissement pour renforcer l\u2019adaptation des sites les plus vuln\ue9rables

From farm to table: exploring food handling and hygiene practices of meat and milk value chain actors in Ethiopia

Livestock value chains constitute a source of livelihood for meat and milk value chain actors in Ethiopia, from dairy farmers to other associated value chain actors such as milk traders, abattoir workers, public health officials, veterinarians, butcheries selling meats, milk cooperatives, artisanal milk processors, and transporters. The development of these livestock value chains, however, is constrained by poor food safety and quality, while consumers are also exposed to public health risks due to milk and meat value chain actors' food handling and hygiene practices.This study used Photovoice and participant observation to explore meat and milk value chain actors' food handling and hygiene practices in suburban areas of Addis Ababa and neighbouring Oromia in Ethiopia. The results of this study reveal that milk and meat value chain actors' food handling practices are not aligned with the recommended Ethiopian food safety and quality standards. Low compliance with food safety and quality standards reflected a combination of factors such as lack of incentives, poor road infrastructure and low enforcement of food safety standards.Participatory and visual research methods enable a researcher to collect context-aware data that can lead to the development of policies and intervention strategies that reflect local needs and priorities. The results of this study affirm the need to identify socially acceptable and economically viable policies and intervention strategies that are acceptable to all chain actors; and suggest there is an imperative to train milk and meat value chain actors on good hygiene handling practices, improve road infrastructure, and facilitate access equipment such as fridges and freezers that can contribute to maintaining food safety and quality

Exploring animal husbandry in smallholder dairy systems in Ethiopia using photovoice

This study uses photovoice to explore smallholder dairy farmers’ husbandry knowledge and practices and document how they address constraints faced in pursuing their livelihood strategy. Currently, there is a paucity of farmer-led research in Ethiopia which captures farmers’ local knowledge and lived experiences. This study was conducted in April and May 2021 in Kaliti, a sub-city of Addis Ababa, and Holeta, located near Addis Ababa, in the Oromia region of Ethiopia. Farmers were selected through purposive and snowball sampling approaches based on their previous participation in a bovine tuberculosis study. Farmers selection was based on their experience in dairy farming and willingness to attend research-related meetings and to engage in photo-taking and subsequent group discussions. Farmers were trained on the use of the digital camera and asked to take pictures of their day-to-day activities, challenges faced in pursuing dairy production and how they overcome these challenges. The pictures taken by farmers indicated their attachment to their cattle, cattle disease symptoms, manure management, pest control practices, cattle housing, feeding practices, milking hygiene and storage. Discussions revealed that husbandry challenges faced stemmed from land-use change, declining farm sizes, poor access to veterinary and animal health services, low milk prices and high cattle feed prices. Farmers explained that they had developed knowledge of cattle nutrition, such as feed ration mixing and ways to deal with manure problems. The results of this study underscore that farmers have a good understanding of husbandry challenges and, additionally, have a wealth of local knowledge which can be leveraged, if captured through participatory and visual research methods, such as photovoice, by policymakers to develop context-aware policies and interventions and recommendations regarding improved practices which are economically viable, and socially and culturally acceptable

Adoption of Biosecurity Practices in Smallholder Dairy Farms in Ethiopia

Dairy production is an important livelihood source for smallholder dairy farmers who produce the majority of milk consumed and traded in Ethiopia. Dairy production is, however, constrained by livestock diseases that impact farm productivity, food safety, and animal welfare. Biosecurity measures (BSM) include all risk reduction strategies designed to avoid the introduction of pathogenic infections from outside and minimise the spread of diseases within dairy herds. This study used a cross-sectional survey to investigate the adoption of BSM in dairy farms in Addis Ababa and Oromia regions of Ethiopia. Using a questionnaire, scores for adopted external and internal BSM were calculated based on the Ghent’s University Biocheck tool to compare the performance of different farms in Ethiopia. The weighted external biosecurity score was 49.1%, which was below average (below 50% adoption), while the weighted internal biosecurity score was 55.5%. Low adoption of crucial BSM increases the risk of disease introduction into dairy farms and transmission within herds. Adoption of BSM at the farm level was driven by individual, demographic, and socio-economic drivers, including education, farming system, milk value chain, and farming experience among others. Results of this research reveal low adoption of BSM and the imperative to encourage farmers to implement BSM can lead to a reduction in disease pressures and, thus, a reduction in antibiotic use and increased dairy farms productivity, and improved animal health and welfare. Farmers can be encouraged through proactive engagement with veterinarians and extension professionals. Moreover, creating a favourable policy environment can support farmers to adopt and implement BSM, given the known fact that “prevention is better and cheaper than curing diseases.

Smallholder farmers' adaptation to climate change and determinants of their adaptation decisions in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

Background: The agricultural sector remains the main source of livelihoods for rural communities in Ethiopia, but faces the challenge of changing climate. This study investigated how smallholder farmers perceive climate change, what adaptation strategies they practice, and factors that influence their adaptation decisions. Both primary and secondary data were used for the study, and a multinomial logit model was employed to identify the factors that shape smallholder farmers’ adaptation strategies. Results: The results show that 90% of farmers have already perceived climate variability, and 85% made attempts to adapt using practices like crop diversification, planting date adjustment, soil and water conservation and management, increasing the intensity of input use, integrating crop with livestock, and tree planting. The econometric model indicated that education, family size, gender, age, livestock ownership, farming experience, frequency of contact with extension agents, farm size, access to market, access to climate information and income were the key factors determining farmers’ choice of adaptation practice. Conclusion: In the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia, climate change is a pressing problem, which is beyond the capacity of smallholders to respond to autonomously. Farmers’ capacity to choose effective adaptation options is influenced by household demography, as well as positively by farm size, income, access to markets, access to climate information and extension, and livestock production. This implies the need to support the indigenous adaptation strategies of the smallholder farmers with a wide range of institutional, policy, and technology support; some of it targeted on smaller, poorer or female-headed households. Moreover, creating opportunities for non-farm income sources is important as this helps farmers to engage in those activities that are less sensitive to climate change. Furthermore, providing climate change information, extension services, and creating access to markets are crucial

Cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life years for 29 cancer groups from 2010 to 2019 a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019

IMPORTANCE The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden. OBJECTIVE To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019. EVIDENCE REVIEW The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). FINDINGS In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world. © 2022 American Medical Association. All rights reserved. **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 30 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Muhammad Aziz Rahman" is provided in this record*

National mortality burden due to communicable, non-communicable, and other diseases in Ethiopia, 1990–2015: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background: Ethiopia lacks a complete vital registration system that would assist in measuring disease burden and risk factors. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk factors 2015 (GBD 2015) estimates to describe the mortality burden from communicable, non-communicable, and other diseases in Ethiopia over the last 25 years. Methods: GBD 2015 mainly used cause of death ensemble modeling to measure causes of death by age, sex, and year for 195 countries. We report numbers of deaths and rates of years of life lost (YLL) for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disorders, non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and injuries with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) for Ethiopia from 1990 to 2015. Results: CMNN causes of death have declined by 65% in the last two-and-a-half decades. Injury-related causes of death have also decreased by 70%. Deaths due to NCDs declined by 37% during the same period. Ethiopia showed a faster decline in the burden of four out of the five leading causes of age-standardized premature mortality rates when compared to the overall sub-Saharan African region and the Eastern sub-Saharan African region: lower respiratory infections, tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, and diarrheal diseases; however, the same could not be said for ischemic heart disease and other NCDs. Non-communicable diseases, together, were the leading causes of age-standardized mortality rates, whereas CMNN diseases were leading causes of premature mortality in 2015. Although lower respiratory infections, tuberculosis, and diarrheal disease were the leading causes of age-standardized death rates, they showed major declines from 1990 to 2015. Neonatal encephalopathy, iron-deficiency anemia, protein-energy malnutrition, and preterm birth complications also showed more than a 50% reduction in burden. HIV/AIDS-related deaths have also decreased by 70% since 2005. Ischemic heart disease, hemorrhagic stroke, and ischemic stroke were among the top causes of premature mortality and age-standardized death rates in Ethiopia in 2015. Conclusions: Ethiopia has been successful in reducing deaths related to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional deficiency diseases and injuries by 65%, despite unacceptably high maternal and neonatal mortality rates. However, the country’s performance regarding non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancer, and chronic respiratory disease, was minimal, causing these diseases to join the leading causes of premature mortality and death rates in 2015. While the country is progressing toward universal health coverage, prevention and control strategies in Ethiopia should consider the double burden of common infectious diseases and non-communicable diseases: lower respiratory infections, diarrhea, tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and diabetes. Prevention and control strategies should also pay special attention to the leading causes of premature mortality and death rates caused by non-communicable diseases: cardiovascular disease, cancer, and diabetes. Measuring further progress requires a data revolution in generating, managing, analyzing, and using data for decision-making and the creation of a full vital registration system in the country

Trends, causes, and risk factors of mortality among children under 5 in Ethiopia, 1990–2013: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background: Ethiopia has made remarkable progress in reducing child mortality over the last two decades. However, the under-5 mortality rate in Ethiopia is still higher than the under-5 mortality rates of several low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). On the other hand, the patterns and causes of child mortality have not been well investigated in Ethiopia. The objective of this study was to investigate the mortality trend, causes of death, and risk factors among children under 5 in Ethiopia during 1990–2013. Methods: We used Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 data. Spatiotemporal Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) was applied to generate best estimates of child mortality with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). Causes of death by age groups, sex, and year were measured using Cause of Death Ensemble modeling (CODEm). For estimation of HIV/AIDS mortality rate, the modified UNAIDS EPP-SPECTRUM suite model was used. Results: Between 1990 and 2013 the under-5 mortality rate declined from 203.9 deaths/1000 live births to 74.4 deaths/1000 live births with an annual rate of change of 4.6%, yielding a total reduction of 64%. Similarly, child (1–4 years), post-neonatal, and neonatal mortality rates declined by 75%, 64%, and 52%, respectively, between 1990 and 2013. Lower respiratory tract infection (LRI), diarrheal diseases, and neonatal syndromes (preterm birth complications, neonatal encephalopathy, neonatal sepsis, and other neonatal disorders) accounted for 54% of the total under-5 deaths in 2013. Under-5 mortality rates due to measles, diarrhea, malaria, protein-energy malnutrition, and iron-deficiency anemia declined by more than two-thirds between 1990 and 2013. Among the causes of under-5 deaths, neonatal syndromes such as sepsis, preterm birth complications, and birth asphyxia ranked third to fifth in 2013. Of all risk-attributable deaths in 1990, 25% of the total under-5 deaths (112,288/435,962) and 48% (112,288/232,199) of the deaths due to diarrhea, LRI, and other common infections were attributable to childhood wasting. Similarly, 19% (43,759/229,333) of the total under-5 deaths and 45% (43,759/97,963) of the deaths due to diarrhea and LRI were attributable to wasting in 2013. Of the total diarrheal disease- and LRI-related deaths (n = 97,963) in 2013, 59% (57,923/97,963) of them were attributable to unsafe water supply, unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, and no handwashing with soap. Conclusions: LRI, diarrheal diseases, and neonatal syndromes remain the major causes of under-5 deaths in Ethiopia. These findings call for better-integrated newborn and child survival interventions focusing on the main risk factors