Clinical Value of Prognostic Instruments to Identify Patients with an Increased Risk for Osteoporotic Fractures: Systematic Review

There is a plethora of evidence available studying the association of risk profiles and the development of osteoporotic fractures. The small number of out-of-sample validations, the large variety of study characteristics, outcomes and follow-up periods impedes from deriving robust summaries and from conclusions regarding the clinical performance of many tools. First and foremost, future activity in this field should aim at reaching a consensus among clinical experts in respect to the existing instruments. Then we call for careful validations and expedient adaptations for local circumstances of the most promising candidates

RISK-FACTORS FOR HIP FRACTURE IN EUROPEAN WOMEN - THE MEDOS STUDY

The aims of this study were to determine common international risk factors for hip fracture in women aged 50 years or more. We studied women aged 50 years or more who sustained a hip fracture in 14 centers from Portugal, Spain, France, Italy, Greece, and Turkey over a 1-year period. Women aged 50 years or more selected from the neighborhood or population registers served as controls. Cases and controls were interviewed using a structured questionnaire on work, physical activity, exposure to sunlight, reproductive history and gynecologic status, height, weight, mental score, and consumption of tobacco, alcohol, calcium, coffee, and tea. Significant risk factors identified by univariate analysis included low body mass index (BMI), short fertile period, low physical activity, lack of sunlight exposure, low milk consumption, no consumption of tea, and a poor mental score. No significant adverse effects of coffee or smoking were observed. Moderate intake of spirits was a protective factor in young adulthood, but otherwise no significant effect of alcohol intake was observed. For some risks, a threshold effect was observed. A low BMI and milk consumption were significant risks only in the lowest 50% and 10% of the population, respectively. A late menarche, poor mental score, low BMI and physical activity, low exposure to sunlight, and a low consumption of calcium and tea remained independent risk factors after multivariate analysis, accounting for 70% of hip fractures, Excluding mental score and age at menarche (not potentially reversible), the attributable risk was 56%. Thus, about half of the hip fractures could be explained on the basis of the potentially reversible risk factors sought. In contrast, the use of risk factors to ''predict'' hip fractures had moderate sensitivity and specificity. We conclude that variations in lifestyle factors are associated with significant differences in the risk of hip fracture, account for a large component of the total risk, and may be of some value in selecting individuals at high risk

Risk factors for hip fracture in men from Southern Europe: The MEDOS study

The aims of this study were to identify risk factors for hip fracture in men aged 50 years or more. We identified 730 men with hip fracture from 14 centers from Portugal, Spain, France, Italy, Greece and Turkey during the course of a prospective study of hip fracture incidence and 1132 age-stratified controls selected from the neighborhood or population registers. The questionnaire examined aspects of work, physical activity past and present, diseases and drugs, height, weight, indices of co-morbidity and consumption of tobacco, alcohol, calcium, coffee and tea. Significant risk factors identified by univariate analysis included low body mass index (BMI), low sunlight exposure, a low degree of recreational physical activity, low consumption of milk and cheese, and a poor mental score. Co-morbidity including sleep disturbances, loss of weight, impaired mental status and poor appetite were also significant risk factors. Previous stroke with hemiplegia, prior fragility fractures, senile dementia, alcoholism and,gastrectomy were associated with significant risk, whereas osteoarthrosis, nephrolithiasis and myocardial infarction were associated with lower risks. Taking medications was not associated with a difference in risk apart from a protective effect with the use of analgesics independent of co-existing osteoarthrosis and an increased risk with the use of antiepileptic agents. Of the potentially 'reversible' risk factors, BMI, leisure exercise, exposure to sunlight and consumption of tea and alcohol and tobacco remained independent risk factors after multivariate analysis, accounting for 54% of hip fractures. Excluding BMI, 46% of fractures could be explained on the basis of the risk factors sought. Of the remaining factors low exposure to sunlight and decreased physical activity accounted for the highest attributable risks (14% and 9% respectively). The use of risk factors to predict hip fractures had relatively low sensitivity and specificity (59.6% and 61.0% respectively). We conclude that lifestyle factors are associated with significant differences in the risk of hip fracture. Potentially remediable factors including a low degree of physical exercise and a low BMI account for a large component of the total risk

THE VARIABLE INCIDENCE OF HIP FRACTURE IN SOUTHERN EUROPE - THE MEDOS STUDY

We assessed the incidence of hip fracture and ecological correlates in residents of 14 communities in six countries of Southern Europe. Hip fracture cases were recorded prospectively in defined catchment areas over a 1-year interval. A retrospective questionnaire was used to assess ecological differences between communities. During a 1-year period of observation of total of 3629 men and women over the age of 50 years were identified with hip fracture from a catchment of 3 million. In all communities the fracture rate increased exponentially with age. There were large and significant differences between centres in the doubling time for hip fracture risk with age and in crude and age-standardized rates. Greater than 4-fold and 13-fold differences in age-standardized risk were found amongst men and women respectively. The lowest rates were observed from Turkey and the highest from Seville, Crete and Porto. Fractures were significantly more frequent among women than men with the exception of three rural Turkish centres. Indeed, in rural Turkey the normal female/male ratio were greater than the differences within centres between sexes, and there was a close and significant correlation between incidence rates for men and those for women in the regions studied. Excess female morbidity increased progressively from the age of 50 years but attained a plateau after the age of 80 years, suggesting a finite duration of the effect of the menopause. The retrospective questionnaire completed by 80% of cases suggested that differences in incidence between the communities studied could not be explained by differences in gonadal status in women. In both men and women related to age or socioeconomic prosperity, the majority of which disappeared after adjustment for age. We conclude that there are marked and sizeable differences in the incidence rates of hip fracture throughout southern Europe. The reasons for these differences are not known but affect both men and women, and are likely to be related to lifestyle or genetic factors rather than to differences in endocrine status

A country-specific FRAX model for Botswana

Introduction Hip fracture rates in Botswana were used to create a FRAX® model for fracture risk assessment. Objective This paper describes the development and characteristics of a country-specific FRAX model for Botswana. Methods Age-specific and sex-specific incidence of hip fracture and national mortality rates was incorporated into a FRAX model for Botswana. Ten-year fracture probabilities were compared with those from African countries having a FRAX model and African Americans from the USA. Results The probabilities of hip fracture and major osteoporotic fracture were low compared with those from South Africa (Black and Coloured) and US Blacks. Probabilities were marginally higher than for Tunisia. Conclusion The creation of a FRAX model is expected to help guide decisions about the prevention and treatment of fragility fractures in Botswana