Predicting trajectories of temperate forest understorey vegetation responses to global change

Predicting forest understorey community responses to global change and forest management is vital given the importance of the understorey for biodiversity conservation and forest functioning. Though substantial effort has gone into disentangling the impact of global change on understorey communities, scarcity of information on site-specific environmental drivers across large temporal-spatial scales has limited our ability to predict global change effects at specific forest sites. In this study, using vegetation resurvey and soil data from 1363 plots across temperate Europe, we applied a machine learning approach (gradient boosting regression, GBR) to model and predict site-specific responses of four understorey properties to global change. We applied our final GBR models at 8 forest sites in Austria to validate the model performance, predict understorey trajectories, and evaluate the effect of alternative scenarios for future nitrogen(N) deposition, climate change and forest management on the projected trajectories. Our results showed that the R² value of the four final GBR models on the independent testing dataset ranged between 0.611 and 0.723 and the most important environmental drivers in predicting the trajectory of understorey properties at specific forest sites were soil pH, soil total carbon-to-nitrogen ratio, overstorey shade-casting ability and regional-scale mean annual precipitation. The out-of-sample R2 value of the four final GBR models on the Austrian data ranged between 0.224 and 0.561. The forecasted trajectories for the Austrian forest sites showed that site-specific understorey responses to near-future climate warming were expected to be weak. Under N deposition decreases, the proportion of woody species was predicted to increase, while species richness and total vegetation cover were predicted to decrease. Furthermore, under a closed canopy, the understorey community was predicted to shift towards more woody species and more forest specialists, albeit with reduced species richness and vegetation cover. Given expected warming and declining N pollution pressures, our presented GBR models allow the prediction of trajectories of understorey vegetation responses to global change and management interventions at specific forest sites. Such projections could aid forest management in addressing challenges posed by global change

Copy Number Variation in Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder and Tourette Syndrome: A Cross-Disorder Study

Objective Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) and Tourette syndrome (TS) are heritable, neurodevelopmental disorders with a partially shared genetic etiology. This study represents the first genome-wide investigation of large (>500kb), rare (<1%) copy number variants (CNVs) in OCD and the largest genome-wide CNV analysis in TS to date. Method The primary analyses utilized a cross-disorder design for 2,699 patients (1,613 ascertained for OCD, 1,086 ascertained for TS) and 1,789 controls. Parental data facilitated a de novo analysis in 348 OCD trios. Results Although no global CNV burden was detected in the cross-disorder analysis or in secondary, disease-specific analyses, there was a 3.3-fold increased burden of large deletions previously associated with other neurodevelopmental disorders (p=.09). Half of these neurodevelopmental deletions were located in a single locus, 16p13.11 (5 patient deletions: 0 control deletions, p=0.08 in current study, p=0.025 compared to published controls). Three 16p13.11 deletions were confirmed de novo, providing further support to the etiological significance of this region. The overall OCD de novo rate was 1.4%, which is intermediate between published rates in controls (0.7%) and in autism or schizophrenia (2-4%). Conclusion Several converging lines of evidence implicate 16p13.11 deletions in OCD, with weaker evidence for a role in TS. The trend toward increased overall neurodevelopmental CNV burden in TS and OCD suggests that deletions previously associated with other neurodevelopmental disorders may also contribute to these phenotypes

Copy number variation in obsessive-compulsive disorder and tourette syndrome: A cross-disorder study

Objective Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) and Tourette syndrome (TS) are heritable neurodevelopmental disorders with a partially shared genetic etiology. This study represents the first genome-wide investigation of large (>500 kb), rare (<1%) copy number variants (CNVs) in OCD and the largest genome-wide CNV analysis in TS to date. Method The primary analyses used a cross-disorder design for 2,699 case patients (1,613 ascertained for OCD, 1,086 ascertained for TS) and 1,789 controls. Parental data facilitated a de novo analysis in 348 OCD trios. Results Although no global CNV burden was detected in the cross-disorder analysis or in secondary, disease-specific analyses, there was a 3.3-fold increased burden of large deletions previously associated with other neurodevelopmental disorders (p =.09). Half of these neurodevelopmental deletions were located in a single locus, 16p13.11 (5 case patient deletions: 0 control deletions, p =.08 in the current study, p =.025 compared to published controls). Three 16p13.11 deletions were confirmed de novo, providing further support for the etiological significance of this region. The overall OCD de novo rate was 1.4%, which is intermediate between published rates in controls (0.7%) and in individuals with autism or schizophrenia (2-4%). Conclusion Several converging lines of evidence implicate 16p13.11 deletions in OCD, with weaker evidence for a role in TS. The trend toward increased overall neurodevelopmental CNV burden in TS and OCD suggests that deletions previously associated with other neurodevelopmental disorders may also contribute to these phenotypes