Probit models for capture-recapture data subject to imperfect detection, individual heterogeneity and misidentification

As noninvasive sampling techniques for animal populations have become more popular, there has been increasing interest in the development of capture-recapture models that can accommodate both imperfect detection and misidentification of individuals (e.g., due to genotyping error). However, current methods do not allow for individual variation in parameters, such as detection or survival probability. Here we develop misidentification models for capture-recapture data that can simultaneously account for temporal variation, behavioral effects and individual heterogeneity in parameters. To facilitate Bayesian inference using our approach, we extend standard probit regression techniques to latent multinomial models where the dimension and zeros of the response cannot be observed. We also present a novel Metropolis-Hastings within Gibbs algorithm for fitting these models using Markov chain Monte Carlo. Using closed population abundance models for illustration, we re-visit a DNA capture-recapture population study of black bears in Michigan, USA and find evidence of misidentification due to genotyping error, as well as temporal, behavioral and individual variation in detection probability. We also estimate a salamander population of known size from laboratory experiments evaluating the effectiveness of a marking technique commonly used for amphibians and fish. Our model was able to reliably estimate the size of this population and provided evidence of individual heterogeneity in misidentification probability that is attributable to variable mark quality. Our approach is more computationally demanding than previously proposed methods, but it provides the flexibility necessary for a much broader suite of models to be explored while properly accounting for uncertainty introduced by misidentification and imperfect detection. In the absence of misidentification, our probit formulation also provides a convenient and efficient Gibbs sampler for Bayesian analysis of traditional closed population capture-recapture data.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS783 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

The Crustal Rigidity of a Neutron Star, and Implications for PSR 1828-11 and other Precession Candidates

We calculate the crustal rigidity parameter, b, of a neutron star (NS), and show that b is a factor 40 smaller than the standard estimate due to Baym & Pines (1971). For a NS with a relaxed crust, the NS's free-precession frequency is directly proportional to b. We apply our result for b to PSR 1828-11, a 2.5 Hz pulsar that appears to be precessing with period 511 d. Assuming this 511-d period is set by crustal rigidity, we show that this NS's crust is not relaxed, and that its reference spin (roughly, the spin for which the crust is most relaxed) is 40 Hz, and that the average spindown strain in the crust is 5 \times 10^{-5}. We also briefly describe the implications of our b calculation for other well-known precession candidates.Comment: 44 pages, 10 figures, submitted to Ap

Correlation of Patient Symptoms With Labral and Articular Cartilage Damage in Femoroacetabular Impingement.

BackgroundFemoroacetabular impingement (FAI) can lead to labral and articular cartilage injuries as well as early osteoarthritis of the hip. Currently, the association of patient symptoms with the progression of labral and articular cartilage injuries due to FAI is poorly understood.PurposeTo evaluate the correlation between patient-reported outcome (PRO) scores and cartilage compositional changes seen on quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) as well as cartilage and labral damage seen during arthroscopic surgery in patients with FAI.Study designCohort study; Level of evidence, 3.MethodsPatients were prospectively enrolled before hip arthroscopic surgery for symptomatic FAI. Patients were included if they had cam-type FAI without radiographic arthritis. All patients completed PRO scores, including the Hip disability and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (HOOS) and a visual analog scale for pain. MRI with mapping sequences (T1ρ and T2) on both the acetabular and femoral regions was performed before surgery to quantitatively assess the cartilage composition. During arthroscopic surgery, cartilage and labral injury grades were recorded using the Beck classification. Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients were then obtained to evaluate the association between chondrolabral changes and PRO scores.ResultsA total of 46 patients (46 hips) were included for analysis (mean age, 35.5 years; mean body mass index [BMI], 23.9 kg/m2; 59% male). Increasing BMI was correlated with a more severe acetabular cartilage grade (ρ = 0.37; 95% CI, 0.08-0.65). A greater alpha angle was correlated with an increased labral tear grade (ρ = 0.59; 95% CI, 0.37-0.82) and acetabular cartilage injuries (ρ = 0.61; 95% CI, 0.42-0.80). With respect to PRO scores, increasing femoral cartilage damage in the anterosuperior femoral head region, as measured on quantitative MRI using T1ρ and T2 mapping, correlated with lower (worse) scores on the HOOS Activities of Daily Living (r = 0.35; 95% CI, 0.06-0.64), Symptoms (r = 0.32; 95% CI, 0.06-0.57), and Pain (r = 0.31; 95% CI, 0.06-0.55) subscales. There was no correlation between PRO scores and acetabular cartilage damage or labral tearing found on quantitative MRI or during arthroscopic surgery.ConclusionFemoral cartilage damage, as measured on T1ρ and T2 mapping, appears to have a greater correlation with clinical symptoms than acetabular cartilage damage or labral tears in patients with symptomatic FAI

MiniBooNE

The physics motivations, design, and status of the Booster Neutrino Experiment at Fermilab, MiniBooNE, are briefly discussed. Particular emphasis is given on the ongoing preparatory work that is needed for the MiniBooNE muon neutrino to electron neutrino oscillation appearance search. This search aims to confirm or refute in a definitive and independent way the evidence for neutrino oscillations reported by the LSND experiment.Comment: 3 pages, no figures, to appear in the proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Astroparticle and Underground Physics (TAUP 2005), Zaragoza, Spain, 10-14 Sep 200

D^+_s -> pi^+ pi^+ pi^- decay: the 1^3P_0 s anti-s component in scalar-isoscalar mesons

On the basis of data on the decay D^+_s -> pi^+ pi^+ pi^-, which goes dominantly via the transition D_s -> pi^+ s anti-s, we evaluate the 1^3P_0 s anti-s components in the scalar-isoscalar resonances f0(980), f0(1300), f0(1500) and broad state f0(1200-1600)$. The data point to a large s anti-s component in the f0(980): 40% < s anti-s < 70%. Nearly 30% of the 1^3P_0 s anti-s component flows to the mass region 1300-1500 MeV being shared by f0(1300), f0(1500) and broad state f0(1200-1600): the interference of these states results in a peak near 1400 MeV with the width around 200 MeV.Comment: 17 pages, 4 figures, epsfi