Remote sensing of tropical tropopause layer radiation balance using A-train measurements

Determining the level of zero net radiative heating (LZH) is critical to understanding parcel trajectory in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) and associated stratospheric hydration processes. Previous studies of the TTL radiative balance have focused on using radiosonde data, but remote sensing measurements from polar-orbiting satellites may provide the relevant horizontal and vertical information for assessing TTL solar heating and infrared cooling rates, especially across the Pacific Ocean. CloudSat provides a considerable amount of vertical information about the distribution of cloud properties relevant to heating rate analysis. The ability of CloudSat measurements and ancillary information to constrain LZH is explored. We employ formal error propagation analysis for derived heating rate uncertainty given the CloudSat cloud property retrieval algorithms. Estimation of the LZH to within approximately 0.5 to 1 km is achievable with CloudSat, but it has a low-altitude bias because the radar is unable to detect thin cirrus. This can be remedied with the proper utilization of Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) lidar backscatter information. By utilizing an orbital simulation with the GISS data set, we explore the representativeness of non-cross-track scanning active sounders in terms of describing the LZH distribution. In order to supplement CloudSat, we explore the ability of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS (AMSR-E) to constrain LZH and find that these passive sounders are useful where the cloud top height does not exceed 7 km. The spatiotemporal distributions of LZH derived from CloudSat and CALIPSO measurements are presented which suggest that thin cirrus have a limited effect on LZH mean values but affect LZH variability

Physical tests for Random Numbers in Simulations

We propose three physical tests to measure correlations in random numbers used in Monte Carlo simulations. The first test uses autocorrelation times of certain physical quantities when the Ising model is simulated with the Wolff algorithm. The second test is based on random walks, and the third on blocks of n successive numbers. We apply the tests to show that recent errors in high precision simulations using generalized feedback shift register algorithms are due to short range correlations in random number sequences. We also determine the length of these correlations.Comment: 16 pages, Post Script file, HU-TFT-94-

Exploring the error characteristics of thin ice cloud property retrievals using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/95385/1/jgrd15111.pd

Aerosol-Radiation-Cloud Interactions in the South-East Atlantic: Future Suborbital Activities to Address Knowledge Gaps in Satellite and Model Assessments

Southern Africa produces almost a third of the Earth's biomass burning (BB) aerosol particles. Particles lofted into the mid-troposphere are transported westward over the South-East (SE) Atlantic, home to one of the three permanent subtropical stratocumulus (Sc) cloud decks in the world. The SE Atlantic stratocumulus deck interacts with the dense layers of BB aerosols that initially overlay the cloud deck, but later subside and may mix into the clouds. These interactions include adjustments to aerosol-induced solar heating and microphysical effects, and their global representation in climate models remains one of the largest uncertainties in estimates of future climate. Hence, new observations over the SE Atlantic have significant implications for global climate change scenarios. Our understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions in the SE Atlantic is hindered both by the lack of knowledge on aerosol and cloud properties, as well as the lack of knowledge about detailed physical processes involved. Most notably, we are missing knowledge on the absorptive and cloud nucleating properties of aerosols, including their vertical distribution relative to clouds, on the locations and degree of aerosol mixing into clouds, on the processes that govern cloud property adjustments, and on the importance of aerosol effects on clouds relative to co-varying synoptic scale meteorology. We discuss the current knowledge of aerosol and cloud property distributions based on satellite observations and sparse suborbital sampling. Recent efforts to make full use of A-Train aerosol sensor synergies will be highlighted. We describe planned field campaigns in the region to address the existing knowledge gaps. Specifically, we describe the scientific objectives and implementation of the five synergistic, international research activities aimed at providing some of the key aerosol and cloud properties and a process-level understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions over the SE Atlantic: NASA's ORACLES, the UK Met Office's CLARIFY-2016, the DoE's LASIC, NSF's ONFIRE, and CNRS' AEROCLO-SA

Verification of an agent-based disease model of human mycobacterium tuberculosis infection

Agent-Based Models are a powerful class of computational models widely used to simulate complex phenomena in many different application areas. However, one of the most critical aspects, poorly investigated in the literature, regards an important step of the model credibility assessment: solution verification. This study overcomes this limitation by proposing a general verification framework for Agent-Based Models that aims at evaluating the numerical errors associated with the model. A step-by-step procedure, which consists of two main verification studies (deterministic and stochastic model verification), is described in detail and applied to a specific mission critical scenario: the quantification of the numerical approximation error for UISS-TB, an ABM of the human immune system developed to predict the progression of pulmonary tuberculosis. Results provide indications on the possibility to use the proposed model verification workflow to systematically identify and quantify numerical approximation errors associated with UISS-TB and, in general, with any other ABMs

The evaluation of CloudSat and CALIPSO ice microphysical products using ground-based cloud radar and lidar observations

In this paper, the statistical properties of tropical ice clouds (ice water content, visible extinction, effective radius, and total number concentration) derived from 3 yr of ground-based radar–lidar retrievals from the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility in Darwin, Australia, are compared with the same properties derived using the official CloudSat microphysical retrieval methods and from a simpler statistical method using radar reflectivity and air temperature. It is shown that the two official CloudSat microphysical products (2B-CWC-RO and 2B-CWC-RVOD) are statistically virtually identical. The comparison with the ground-based radar–lidar retrievals shows that all satellite methods produce ice water contents and extinctions in a much narrower range than the ground-based method and overestimate the mean vertical profiles of microphysical parameters below 10-km height by over a factor of 2. Better agreements are obtained above 10-km height. Ways to improve these estimates are suggested in this study. Effective radii retrievals from the standard CloudSat algorithms are characterized by a large positive bias of 8–12 μm. A sensitivity test shows that in response to such a bias the cloud longwave forcing is increased from 44.6 to 46.9 W m−2 (implying an error of about 5%), whereas the negative cloud shortwave forcing is increased from −81.6 to −82.8 W m−2. Further analysis reveals that these modest effects (although not insignificant) can be much larger for optically thick clouds. The statistical method using CloudSat reflectivities and air temperature was found to produce inaccurate mean vertical profiles and probability distribution functions of effective radius. This study also shows that the retrieval of the total number concentration needs to be improved in the official CloudSat microphysical methods prior to a quantitative use for the characterization of tropical ice clouds. Finally, the statistical relationship used to produce ice water content from extinction and air temperature obtained by the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellite is evaluated for tropical ice clouds. It is suggested that the CALIPSO ice water content retrieval is robust for tropical ice clouds, but that the temperature dependence of the statistical relationship used should be slightly refined to better reproduce the radar–lidar retrievals