Optimization of Demographic Policy in Socio-Economic Growth Models

The paper deals with the socio-economic growth model, which includes three main feedbacks: (1) accumulation of capital due to the investments; (2) accumulation of labor force resulting from the government expenditures in demographic policy; and (3) technical progress represented by government expenditures in education, health service, research and development, etc. Using an optimization technique called "the factor coordination principle", the optimum strategy of factor endowments has been derived. In particular, the optimum strategy of government expenditures in population policy was derived (in an explicit form) and analyzed for the case of short and long planning horizons

A Dynamic Consumption Model and Optimization of Utility Functionals

The present paper has been motivated by the research concerned with the construction of a complex, long-range, national development model. The model -- MRI -- is being constructed at the Institute of Organization and Management of the Polish Academy of Sciences. It consists of three main submodels: production, consumption and environment. The consumption submodel is characterized by the utility function with parameters which are estimated on the basis of past statistical data. It takes into account the utility structure changes caused by GNP per capita and the change in price indices. The model is normative, in the sense that one can investigate the national growth path as a result of alternative development strategies in terms of productive investment and government expenditures in the fields of education, R&D, health service, pollution control, etc. The optimum investment strategies for MRI have already been derived elsewhere. In the present paper, an effort is being made to derive the optimum consumer and government expenditure strategies which maximize the utility functional

Optimization of Rural-Urban Development and Migration

The paper deals with rural-urban migration and the impact of migration on regional development. In order to derive the optimal migration strategy, the general problem of optimal allocation of production factors in time and space is introduced. Describing the regional economy by a generalized Cobb-Douglas production function, the general problem is decomposed into two levels. Using the generalized Hölder inequality at the first level, optimal allocation of factors in time is solved in an explicit form. At the second level, a spatial strategy is derived and the principle of spatial allocation of production factors is formulated. Using the optimal strategies, the simple two-sector (i.e., agriculture and the rest of the economy) model was investigated and the labor surpluses in Polish agriculture and in an agricultural region in Poland were calculate

On Optimization of Demographic and Migration Policies in a Socio-Economic Growth Model

The paper deals with a socio-economic model of planned national and regional development. The development is regarded as a result of accumulation of production factors (i.e. labour, capital, etc.), which are controlled by the decision center in such a way that the consumption per head allocated among different population groups (in preworking, working, post working age) in the form of salaries, stipends, allowances for families with many children, pensions for the retired, etc., is maximum, i.e., that a given utility function attains maximum. The impact of the consumption allocation on fertility is investigated. The results obtained are used for determining the optimum demographic and migration policies for the allocation of labour force in regional systems

NOTEC REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT- Proceedings of Task Force Meeting I on Notec Regional Development

The first Task Force Meeting on Notec (Poland) regional development was held at IIASA, Schloss Laxenburg, Austria, May 10-11, 1978, with joint cooperation between the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and a group of prominent Polish scholars. The principal aim of this meeting was to clarify the main problems of this region to international scholars and to discuss the possibilities of their solution. A broad spectrum of intraregional problems, starting from water supply touching regional agriculture and industrial development, migration processes, development of urban and rural settlement systems, was discussed. The results of these discussions serve as a good introduction in problem understanding and promote the choice of the interdependent core problems to be solved

On Modeling and Planning of Optimum Long-Range Regional Development

It may be assumed that the primary goal of regional policy is to contribute to .the national economic and social development. Such an approach basically differs from the concept which emphasizes the development of lagging regions, although the latter's major objective is also included in the former, more comprehensive framework. It is intended that the models discussed in this paper are used in the analysis and planning of economic and social development in the region of Lublin. In this case the development of major coal resources may be regarded as an exogenous factor whose impacts are to be anticipated and traced through the national, regional, as well as intraregional scale

Decentralized Management and Optimization of Development in Large Production Organizations

This paper deals with a model of large production organizations using a decentralized management system. We first decompose the complex, hierarchically organized structure in such a form that the intersector flows do not interfere with the allocation strategies. Next, the problem of best allocation of development resources is investigated. Finally, we investigate the prices on the long-range development strategy. As a concrete example, the Cobb-Douglas production functions are used to describe the sector input-output relations. Using the model presented here, it is possible to avoid the gap which exists between micro-production and macro-economic models

Toward a Global Model: A Methodology for Construction and Linkage of Long-Range Normative Development Models

In recent years an increasing activity in the field of modeling of development processes on the regional, national, and global level can be observed. In global models a descriptive approach is commonly used while in the regional and national models an attempt is being made to employ the normative concepts which are regarded as rather useful tools for long-range planning purposes. It is a general belief that the long-range planning and forecasting on the regional, national and (probably in the future) global level could be much improved if the existing models could be linked and fitted together. That requires, however, that the model aggregation and decomposition techniques or linkage methodology exists and can be used effectively, employing the available data bank. In the present paper, an effort has been made to show that such a technique exists and can be used effectively for the construction of a class of models on the regional, national and global levels. Using that technique, we have already been able to construct (at the Institute of Organization and Management of the Polish Academy of Sciences) a class of models called the DR series. The core model (MRI) enables us to make long-range projections of national development in fifteen sectors of the Polish economy. Using the core model, a number of more specialized models (used for regional, environmental, education, R&D etc. -- projections) could be constructed. It is hoped that the model can be linked to the international trade model. As the data base, the Statistical Year Book published each year by the Polish Main Statistical Office has been used. The model accuracy, tested in historical runs has proved to be encouraging to further development

Long-Term Normative Model of Development: Methodological Aspects

Few academic discussions in recent years have become as controversial as those regarding the application of computer-operated mathematical models which forecast the future of mankind. It has been argued, for example, that the modeling methodology usually takes a descriptive, i.e. passive, attitude with regard to global development processes. As a result, even slight tendencies towards a crisis may appear as if they had been determined, in which case the whole future development appears predestined and "doomsday" seems inevitable. It has also been argued that descriptive models do not take into account the changes in the system of socio-economic values and development goals, which have a direct effect on the consumption structure, allocation of resources, prices, fertility, and the growth of population, etc. Since, in descriptive models, decisions cannot be introduced explicitly one cannot find out what can be done when the crisis is in sight and what chances one has in trying to avoid or reduce the effects of the crisis. It was proposed that, in order to have a realistic global development model, the normative rather than descriptive approach should be used. The approach used in this paper can be called "optimistic" (compared to the approaches used in the so called "Doomsday Models") in the sense that it relys on the realistic assumption that mankind will choose the policy of international cooperation and will optimize the allocation of scarce resources rather than follow the passive attitude and apathy when confronted with a crisis or catastrophe. The increase in international cooperation, especially after the Helsinki Peace Conference, indicates that such a strategy is feasible

A Normative Model of Rural-Urban Development and Optimal Migration Policy

Agricultural development policies influence patterns of internal migration and population distribution directly and indirectly. The reverse is also true. Hence, a nation's agricultural development policy should be consistent with its population distribution policy. Accordingly, the policy field to be investigated must be extended to include side effects and secondary consequences in these interdependent spheres. Methodological research and a number of case studies are envisaged to deal with this problem in the Food and Agriculture Program, in the Human Settlements and Services Area, and in the Regional Development Task. This paper is among the first of such studies and should be regarded as a methodological study to determine whether a computerized regional model can be constructed to improve the planning of rural-urban development, employment, and migration policy