Rapid screening of operational freshwater availability using global models

Freshwater shortage already affects large parts of the world, and is expected to increase rapidly over the coming decades as a result of increased water demands and the impacts of climate change. Global-scale water risk or stress maps are available online, but these lack quantitative information on local freshwater availability, rendering them unsuitable for water risk assessment from an operational perspective, i.e. when comparing water availability to a specific quantified water demand (in m3/s rather than generic risk indicators). Therefore, our main goal was to develop a rapid screening method to estimate current and future operational freshwater availability using global-scale models. Operational Freshwater Availability (OFWA) was computed using the PCR-GLOBWB global hydrology and water resources model, coupled to a global MODFLOW groundwater model. PCR-GLOBWB was forced with rainfall and temperature fields from the IPSL-CM5A-LR climate model under the RCP6.0 climate scenario, with water demands based on the SSP2 socio-economic scenario. Output from PCR-GLOBWB provided recharge and river stage height boundary conditions to the MODFLOW model. To our knowledge, the combined PCR-GLOBWB-MODFLOW model is the first coupled global surface water-groundwater model that is locally downscaled to a 90 m resolution, and used to provide quantitative estimates on long term trends in operational freshwater availability. Our results showed a high, operationally relevant, accuracy for operational surface water availability, while the uncertainty about operational groundwater availability remained high due to limited availability of subsurface data. With this method, we developed a modelling capacity for rapidly generating scenario-based water availability projections with operational relevance in a rigorous, systematic way, such that it enables like-for-like comparisons. Further refinement is required for accurate estimates of operational groundwater availability

Rapid screening of operational freshwater availability using global models

Freshwater shortage already affects large parts of the world, and is expected to increase rapidly over the coming decades as a result of increased water demands and the impacts of climate change. Global-scale water risk or stress maps are available online, but these lack quantitative information on local freshwater availability, rendering them unsuitable for water risk assessment from an operational perspective, i.e. when comparing water availability to a specific quantified water demand (in m3/s rather than generic risk indicators). Therefore, our main goal was to develop a rapid screening method to estimate current and future operational freshwater availability using global-scale models. Operational Freshwater Availability (OFWA) was computed using the PCR-GLOBWB global hydrology and water resources model, coupled to a global MODFLOW groundwater model. PCR-GLOBWB was forced with rainfall and temperature fields from the IPSL-CM5A-LR climate model under the RCP6.0 climate scenario, with water demands based on the SSP2 socio-economic scenario. Output from PCR-GLOBWB provided recharge and river stage height boundary conditions to the MODFLOW model. To our knowledge, the combined PCR-GLOBWB-MODFLOW model is the first coupled global surface water-groundwater model that is locally downscaled to a 90 m resolution, and used to provide quantitative estimates on long term trends in operational freshwater availability. Our results showed a high, operationally relevant, accuracy for operational surface water availability, while the uncertainty about operational groundwater availability remained high due to limited availability of subsurface data. With this method, we developed a modelling capacity for rapidly generating scenario-based water availability projections with operational relevance in a rigorous, systematic way, such that it enables like-for-like comparisons. Further refinement is required for accurate estimates of operational groundwater availability

Impacts of multiple stressors on freshwater biota across spatial scales and ecosystems: MARS Synthesis Paper

Climate and land-use change drive a suite of stressors that shape ecosystems and interact to yield complex ecological responses (that is, additive, antagonistic and synergistic effects). We know little about the spatial scales relevant for the outcomes of such interactions and little about effect sizes. These knowledge gaps need to be filled to underpin future land management decisions or climate mitigation interventions for protecting and restoring freshwater ecosystems. This study combines data across scales from 33 mesocosm experiments with those from 14 river basins and 22 cross-basin studies in Europe, producing 174 combinations of paired-stressor effects on a biological response variable. Generalized linear models showed that only one of the two stressors had a significant effect in 39% of the analysed cases, 28% of the paired-stressor combinations resulted in additive effects and 33% resulted in interactive (antagonistic, synergistic, opposing or reversal) effects. For lakes, the frequencies of additive and interactive effects were similar for all spatial scales addressed, while for rivers these frequencies increased with scale. Nutrient enrichment was the overriding stressor for lakes, with effects generally exceeding those of secondary stressors. For rivers, the effects of nutrient enrichment were dependent on the specific stressor combination and biological response variable. These results vindicate the traditional focus of lake restoration and management on nutrient stress, while highlighting that river management requires more bespoke management solutions.JRC.D.2-Water and Marine Resource

Impacts of multiple stressors on freshwater biota across spatial scales and ecosystems

Climate and land-use change drive a suite of stressors that shape ecosystems and interact to yield complex ecological responses (that is, additive, antagonistic and synergistic effects). We know little about the spatial scales relevant for the outcomes of such interactions and little about effect sizes. These knowledge gaps need to be filled to underpin future land management decisions or climate mitigation interventions for protecting and restoring freshwater ecosystems. This study combines data across scales from 33 mesocosm experiments with those from 14 river basins and 22 cross-basin studies in Europe, producing 174 combinations of paired-stressor effects on a biological response variable. Generalized linear models showed that only one of the two stressors had a significant effect in 39% of the analysed cases, 28% of the paired-stressor combinations resulted in additive effects and 33% resulted in interactive (antagonistic, synergistic, opposing or reversal) effects. For lakes, the frequencies of additive and interactive effects were similar for all spatial scales addressed, while for rivers these frequencies increased with scale. Nutrient enrichment was the overriding stressor for lakes, with effects generally exceeding those of secondary stressors. For rivers, the effects of nutrient enrichment were dependent on the specific stressor combination and biological response variable. These results vindicate the traditional focus of lake restoration and management on nutrient stress, while highlighting that river management requires more bespoke management solutions