Modelling the Rise and Fall of Two-Sided Mobility Markets with Microsimulation

In this paper, we propose a novel modelling framework to reproduce the market entry strategies for two-sided mobility platforms. In the MaaSSim agent-based simulator, we develop a co-evolutionary model to represent day-to-day dynamics of the two-sided mobility market with agents making rational decisions to maximize their perceived utility. Participation probability of agents depends on utility, composed of: experience, word of mouth and marketing components adjusted by agents every day with the novel S-shaped formulas - better suited (in our opinion) to reproduce market entry dynamics than previous approaches. With such a rich representation, we can realistically model a variety of market entry strategies and create significant network effects to reproduce the rise and fall of two-side mobility platforms. To illustrate model capabilities, we simulate a 400-day evolution of 200 drivers and 2000 travelers on a road-network of Amsterdam. We design a six-stage market entry strategy with consecutive: kick-off, discount, launch, growth, maturity and greed stages. After 25 days the platform offers discounts, yet it starts gaining market share only when the marketing campaign launches at day 50. Campaign finishes after 50 days, which does not stop the growth, now fueled mainly with a positive word of mouth effect and experiences. The platform ends discounts after 200 days and reaches the steady maturity period, after which its greedy strategy leads to collapse of its market share and profit. All above simulated with a single behavioral model, which well reproduces how agents of both sides adapts to platform actions

The representativity index of a simple monitoring network with regular theoretical shapes and its practical application for the existing groundwater monitoring network of the Tychy-Urbanowice landfills, Poland

The representativity index Ru is a measure used in assessing the chemical status of groundwater based on monitoring studies. This index is designed to describe the spatial homogeneity of the monitoring network. The general formula for calculating the index Ru includes the following parameters: average distance to the nearest monitoring point, number of monitoring points, and size of the test area. Calculations to determine the representativity index for four different shapes of the theoretical test study with the same area and the same number of monitoring points have been done. These calculations suggest that the index value depends on the shape and the position of these points, and it is less dependent on the size of the surface. An assessment of the representativeness of the monitoring network for the different numbers and configurations of the piezometers around the Tychy-Urbanowice landfills based on the mentioned index has been done as well. The best and the worst configurations of the monitoring network for these landfill sites in mathematical terms have been presented in this paper. The results are surprising: the highest index value is obtained with a single measurement point. The calculations were performed with the area of landfill and the area limited by the range of piezometers as the exclusive test area. To choose the optimal test area, representativity indicator was calculated also for the monitoring network around waste landfills, including the buffer network behind the piezometers. The difference in the values of the representativity indicator for subsequent variants is astounding. The representativity index for the same monitoring network is about 20 % higher if we consider the test area limited by external piezometers, and higher by another 20 %, taking into account the 95-m buffer zone behind piezometers. Due to increase of the representativity index value with a different width of buffer zone, the mathematical calculations of the monitoring network’s representativeness should be supported by an analysis of the geological structure and hydrogeological conditions occurring in the analyzed area

Optimization of the break-even point for non-homogeneous products sales

Break-even point analysis is a classic management accounting tool. In the case of the sale of one product, the notion of the break-even point is well described in the literature, conceptually simple, and relatively easy to apply in business practice. However, when it comes to heterogeneous sales, consisting of various products, this problem is presented less frequently, and the methods used in this case exploit rather arbitrary and often ambiguous criteria. The aim of the article is to present and analyze alternative ways of determining break-even points for non-homogeneous sales based on econometric modeling methods. Production levels determined by the proposed methods meet the classical condition set for the break-even point, and in addition are optimal from the point of view of criteria used in the economic analysis. Three methods were presented: first – based on the classic criterion of profit maximization and linear programming, second – minimizing variable production costs and taking into account the scale effects on the production costs, and third – taking into account the random aspect of the business operations and maximizing the probability of profitability. According to the authors' knowledge, the proposed methods are original and are not known in the existing literature on the subject

Multichannel queueing behaviour in urban bicycle traffic

The objective of this paper is to propose a method to analyse and describe cyclists’ behaviour at signalized intersections with specific focus on the multichannel (multi-lane) queue phenomenon. As we observed, cyclists form queues without a fixed-lane and FIFO discipline, for which the classical, car-oriented analytical approach becomes insufficient. Cyclists’ multichannel queueing behaviour is common and characterized by substantial degree of variability, especially in case of shorter queues which emerge regularly at cycle crossings. Although cyclist behaviour has been widely studied by transportation research community, their queueing behaviour picture is still incomplete. Namely, there is no method addressed to analyse the full scope of these phenomena and to quantify their impact on the cyclist queue performance. To bridge this gap, we introduce the technique to observe multichannel queues and report relevant observations, which we then complement with a methodological framework to analyse obtained results and provide a complete multichannel queue description. We video-record cyclists as they enqueue to one of multiple channels, form the queue and smoothly merge into a single lane again as the queue discharges. We apply the method to analyse results from a pilot study of 160 cyclists forming 50 queues in the city of Krakow, Poland. The proposed method allows us to analyse and quantify the observed queue performance and its characteristics: the number of channels, their emergence process, channel and queue lengths, discharge process with FIFO violations, starting and discharging times. Findings from pilot study reveal that both queue length and discharge times strongly depend on queue formation process. The contribution of this paper is the method to describe multichannel cyclist queueing behaviour, enriching current picture of bicycle flow and cyclists’ behaviour. Since the method has been developed on relatively short queues (up to 10 cyclists), findings included in this paper primarily refer to such queue sizes. Nonetheless, the method is formulated in a generic way, applicable also for longer bicycle queues. Possible practical implications are new estimates for queue lengths and discharge times - useful for bicycle infrastructure design and traffic engineering purposes

Metody statystyczne w ocenie zmian zawartości bromków w solankach uzdrowiska Goczałkowice-Zdrój

Trends in the groundwater quality can be assessed with statistical methods such as the linear model, the fixed effect model and the robust statistic. The paper shows the assessment of trend on the example of bromides in the region of Goczałkowice- Zdrój health resort. Analyses were based on the data from the years 1977– 2014 from two boreholes: GN-1, GN-2. Results indicate a decrease trend of bromides concentration

Should I stay or should I board? Willingness to wait with real-time crowding information in urban public transport

Overcrowding is a major phenomenon affecting travel experience in urban public transport, whose negative impacts can be potentially mitigated with real-time crowding information (RTCI) on public transport vehicle departures. In this study, we investigate the willingness to wait (WTW) with instantaneous RTCI to avoid the in-vehicle (over)crowding the passenger faces, focusing specifically on urban crowding context (i.e. bus and tram systems). We conduct a stated-preference survey in Krakow (Poland), where we examine the choice probability between boarding now a more crowded vehicle vs. waiting at the stop for a less-crowded PT departure, and estimate a series of discrete choice models.Results show that 50–70% of respondents consider skipping a first departure which is excessively overcrowded and 10–30% would skip a vehicle with moderate standing crowding on-board. Acceptable waiting times typically range between 2 and 13 min, depending on crowding level and propensity to arrive on-time, but may even exceed 20 min in individual cases. These findings indicate that RTCI can induce a substantial WTW, affecting travel behaviour. We discuss its implications for mitigating service disruptions and demand management policies, including prospective support for public transport recovery in the aftermath of covid-19 crisis