Asymptotic assessment of distribution moments of price increments for pair USD/RUB

Рассмотрен метод оценивания коэффициентов модели стохастической волатильности при бесконечно возрастающем времени. Найденные зависимости позволяют свести задачу нахождения решения системы стохастических дифференциальных уравнений к отысканию аналитического решения асимптотического уравнения Фоккера-Планка-Колмогорова. Разработанный алгоритм применяется к анализу дневных котировок тиковых значений цены пары USD/RUB

Treatment outcomes and predictive factors for multidrug-resistant TB and HIV coinfection in Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil

BACKGROUND: Brazil ranks 14th worldwide in the number of TB cases and 19th in terms of TB-HIV co-infected cases. This study aims at identifying clinical and demographic factors associated with unsuccessful treatment outcomes (loss to follow-up, treatment failure and death) of HIV-positive patients with multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) in Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of MDR-TB cases notified from 2000 to 2016 in RJ. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to assess risk factors associated with unsuccessful treatment in HIV-positive patients with MDR-TB. RESULTS: Among 2,269 patients, 156 (6.9%) were HIV-positive and had a higher proportion of unsuccessful treatment outcomes (52.6%) than HIV-negative cases (43.7%). All HIV-positive cases with extensively drug-resistant TB (XDR-TB) had unsuccessful treatment outcomes. Multivariate analysis shows that previous MDR-TB treatment (HR 1.97, 95% CI 1.22–3.18) and illicit drugs use (HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.01–2.78) were associated with a greater hazard of unsuccessful treatment outcomes, while 6-month culture conversion (HR 0.48, 95% CI 0.27–0.84) and use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) (HR 0.51, 95% CI 0.32–0.80) were predictors of reduced risk. CONCLUSIONS: Unsuccessful treatment was higher among HIV patients with MDR-TB than among HIV-negative patients. Prompt initiation of ART and effective interventions are necessary to improve treatment adherence and prevent retreatment cases

Assessment of Multivariate Financial Risks of a Stock Share Portfolio

The method of evaluation of stochastic volatility (SV) model coefficients, with time going to the infinity, is consid-ered. The problem of finding the solution of a system of stochastic differential equations is reduced to that of the analytical solution of the Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov asymptotic equation. The constructed algorithm is applied to econometric analysis of daily GAZPROM share prices and values of S&P500 Index options (SPX).stochastic volatility model; Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equation

Automatic Data Processing System of Constructing an Optimal Mean/Value-at-Risk Portfolio

We propose a computer-based automatic system of share prices processing for constructing an optimal mean/Valueat-Risk portfolio with mixed integer linear programming algorithm based on Benati - Rizzi method. We investigate the impact of so-called Value at risk measure on the size of total capital and shares in the optimal risky portfolio is necessary for revising the classical approach of Markovitz and for adapting it to the modern requirements in the banking and financial sectors. In a classical way it is impossible to construct a portfolio when structural changes in the stock market are happened, or as the same, when a long fall in prices is replaced by a steady growth. Our work is devoted to the study of the construction of the risky portfolio using the Value at risk measure. Within this investigation, two portfolios are constructed according to the classical Markowitz algorithm and the Benati - Rizzi algorithm. The sample alpha and beta-coefficients are estimated, the riskiness and profitability of passive portfolio investments are calculated. The comparison of returns and values of such portfolios of shares included in Moscow index MICEX-10 was carried out

Learning from the Italian experience in coping with COVID-19

Introduction: In March 2020, the rapid increase in COVID-19 cases overburdened the Italian health system, with the country becoming the pandemic’s epicenter. Methods: We present a narrative review based on manuscripts, official documents, and newspaper articles regarding COVID-19 in Italy. Results: Characteristics of the epidemic, possible causes for its worsening, and the measures adopted across Italian regions are presented. Conclusions: In the early stages of an epidemic, effective decision-making is essential to contain the number of cases. Medical support for patients and social isolation measures are the most appropriate strategies currently available to reduce the spread and lethality of COVID-19

Barriers faced by patients in the diagnosis of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in Brazil

OBJECTIVE To understand patients’ narratives about the barriers they faced in the diagnosis and treatment of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, and their consequences in Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil. METHODS This is a qualitative cross-sectional study with non-probabilistic sampling. A theoretical saturation criterion was considered for composing the number of interviewees. Semi-structured interviews were conducted from August to December 2019 with 31 patients undergoing treatment for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis at an outpatient referral center in Rio de Janeiro. Data were transcribed and processed with the aid of the NVIVO software. Interviews were evaluated by content analysis, and their themes, cross-referenced with participants’ characterization data. RESULTS Our main findings were: a) participants show a high proportion of primary drug resistance, b) patients experience delays in the diagnosis and effective treatment of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis ; c) healthcare providers fail to value or seek the diagnosis of drug-resistant tuberculosis, thus beginning the inadequate treatment for drug-susceptible tuberculosis, d) primary health units show low report rates of active case-finding and contact monitoring, and e) patients show poor knowledge about the disease. CONCLUSIONS We need to improve referral systems, and access to the diagnosis and effective treatment of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis; conduct an active investigation of contacts; intensify the training of healthcare providers, in collaboration with medical and nursing schools, in both public and private systems; and promote campaigns to educate the population on tuberculosis signs and symptoms