On forecasting the Indian summer monsoon: The intriguing season of 2002

This year, the rainfall over India during the first half of the summer monsoon season was 30 below normal. This has naturally led to a lot of concern and speculation about the causes. We have shown that the deficit in rainfall is a part of the natural variability. Analysis of the past data suggests that there is a 78 chance that seasonal mean rainfall this year will be 10 or more below the long-term average value. We discuss briefly how forecasts for seasonal rainfall are generated, whether this event could have been foreseen, and share our perspective on the problems and prospects of forecasting the summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian region

A comparison of weather variables linked to infectious disease patterns using laboratory addresses and patient residence addresses

Background: To understand the impact of weather on infectious diseases, information on weather parameters at patient locations is needed, but this is not always accessible due to confidentiality or data availability. Weather parameters at nearby locations are often used as a proxy, but the accuracy of this practice is not known. Methods: Daily Campylobacter and Cryptosporidium cases across England and Wales were linked to local temperature and rainfall at the residence postcodes of the patients and at the corresponding postcodes of the laboratory where the patient’s specimen was tested. The paired values of daily rainfall and temperature for the laboratory versus residence postcodes were interpolated from weather station data, and the results were analysed for agreement using linear regression. We also assessed potential dependency of the findings on the relative geographic distance between the patient’s residence and the laboratory. Results: There was significant and strong agreement between the daily values of rainfall and temperature at diagnostic laboratories with the values at the patient residence postcodes for samples containing the pathogens Campylobacter or Cryptosporidium. For rainfall, the R-squared was 0.96 for the former and 0.97 for the latter, and for maximum daily temperature, the R-squared was 0.99 for both. The overall mean distance between the patient residence and the laboratory was 11.9 km; however, the distribution of these distances exhibited a heavy tail, with some rare situations where the distance between the patient residence and the laboratory was larger than 500 km. These large distances impact the distributions of the weather variable discrepancies (i.e. the differences between weather parameters estimated at patient residence postcodes and those at laboratory postcodes), with discrepancies up to ±10 °C for the minimum and maximum temperature and 20 mm for rainfall. Nevertheless, the distributions of discrepancies (estimated separately for minimum and maximum temperature and rainfall), based on the cases where the distance between the patient residence and the laboratory was within 20 km, still exhibited tails somewhat longer than the corresponding exponential fits suggesting modest small scale variations in temperature and rainfall. Conclusion: The findings confirm that, for the purposes of studying the relationships between meteorological variables and infectious diseases using data based on laboratory postcodes, the weather results are sufficiently similar to justify the use of laboratory postcode as a surrogate for domestic postcode. Exclusion of the small percentage of cases where there is a large distance between the residence and the laboratory could increase the precision of estimates, but there are generally strong associations between daily weather parameters at residence and laboratory

Outer membrane protein folding from an energy landscape perspective

The cell envelope is essential for the survival of Gram-negative bacteria. This specialised membrane is densely packed with outer membrane proteins (OMPs), which perform a variety of functions. How OMPs fold into this crowded environment remains an open question. Here, we review current knowledge about OFMP folding mechanisms in vitro and discuss how the need to fold to a stable native state has shaped their folding energy landscapes. We also highlight the role of chaperones and the β-barrel assembly machinery (BAM) in assisting OMP folding in vivo and discuss proposed mechanisms by which this fascinating machinery may catalyse OMP folding

A922 Sequential measurement of 1 hour creatinine clearance (1-CRCL) in critically ill patients at risk of acute kidney injury (AKI)

Meeting abstrac

The eClinical Care Pathway Framework: A novel structure for creation of online complex clinical care pathways and its application in the management of sexually transmitted infections.

Despite considerable international eHealth impetus, there is no guidance on the development of online clinical care pathways. Advances in diagnostics now enable self-testing with home diagnosis, to which comprehensive online clinical care could be linked, facilitating completely self-directed, remote care. We describe a new framework for developing complex online clinical care pathways and its application to clinical management of people with genital chlamydia infection, the commonest sexually transmitted infection (STI) in England.Using the existing evidence-base, guidelines and examples from contemporary clinical practice, we developed the eClinical Care Pathway Framework, a nine-step iterative process. Step 1: define the aims of the online pathway; Step 2: define the functional units; Step 3: draft the clinical consultation; Step 4: expert review; Step 5: cognitive testing; Step 6: user-centred interface testing; Step 7: specification development; Step 8: software testing, usability testing and further comprehension testing; Step 9: piloting. We then applied the Framework to create a chlamydia online clinical care pathway (Online Chlamydia Pathway).Use of the Framework elucidated content and structure of the care pathway and identified the need for significant changes in sequences of care (Traditional: history, diagnosis, information versus Online: diagnosis, information, history) and prescribing safety assessment. The Framework met the needs of complex STI management and enabled development of a multi-faceted, fully-automated consultation.The Framework provides a comprehensive structure on which complex online care pathways such as those needed for STI management, which involve clinical services, public health surveillance functions and third party (sexual partner) management, can be developed to meet national clinical and public health standards. The Online Chlamydia Pathway's standardised method of collecting data on demographics and sexual behaviour, with potential for interoperability with surveillance systems, could be a powerful tool for public health and clinical management.UKCRC Translational Infection Research (TIR) Initiative supported by the Medical Research Council, eSTI2 Consortium (Grant Number G0901608)

Additive manufacturing of geopolymer composites for sustainable construction: critical factors, advancements, challenges, and future directions

Increasing pollution poses enormous pressure on the global ecosystem, with a need to limit the carbon emissions from the construction materials industry. Mitigation of this carbon is possible by converting industrial wastes into alternative cement and optimisation in the building process. Taking this into account, advancement is taking place in sustainable geopolymer composites-based additive manufacturing (AM) technology. Typical precursors for geopolymer binder are industrial waste by-products (such as slag, fly ash, and metakaolin). In another aspect, AM entails several benefits such as easy fabrication, freedom of design, the ability to generate sophisticated structural elements and reduce: expenses, time, waste generation, and labor demands. This review journal paper on geopolymer AM presents a bibliometric study followed by an overview of AM methods and influencing parameters, techniques in geopolymer AM (such as extrusion and powder bed), materials, improvements in AM process, and fresh-state and hardened-state properties. Recent developments in AM processes within the geopolymer are critically discussed while investigating the properties and applications of the same. The discussion includes an analysis pinpointing research gaps essential in developing geopolymer AM

Improving Real-Time Bidding Using a Constrained Markov Decision Process

Online advertising is increasingly switching to real-time bidding on advertisement inventory, in which the ad slots are sold through real-time auctions upon users visiting websites or using mobile apps. To compete with unknown bidders in such a highly stochastic environment, each bidder is required to estimate the value of each impression and to set a competitive bid price. Previous bidding algorithms have done so without considering the constraint of budget limits, which we address in this paper. We model the bidding process as a Constrained Markov Decision Process based reinforcement learning framework. Our model uses the predicted click-through-rate as the state, bid price as the action, and ad clicks as the reward. We propose a bidding function, which outperforms the state-of-the-art bidding functions in terms of the number of clicks when the budget limit is low. We further simulate different bidding functions competing in the same environment and report the performances of the bidding strategies when required to adapt to a dynamic environment.</p

Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability