Learning from Neighbors about a Changing State

Agents learn about a changing state using private signals and past actions of neighbors in a network. We characterize equilibrium learning and social influence in this setting. We then examine when agents can aggregate information well, responding quickly to recent changes. A key sufficient condition for good aggregation is that each individual's neighbors have sufficiently different types of private information. In contrast, when signals are homogeneous, aggregation is suboptimal on any network. We also examine behavioral versions of the model, and show that achieving good aggregation requires a sophisticated understanding of correlations in neighbors' actions. The model provides a Bayesian foundation for a tractable learning dynamic in networks, closely related to the DeGroot model, and offers new tools for counterfactual and welfare analyses.Comment: minor revision tweaking exposition relative to v5 - which added new Section 3.2.2, new Theorem 2, new Section 7.1, many local revision

Finite Element Analysis Of Modified Conebolt Under Static And Dynamic Loadings

Axisymmetric finite element models are developed to simulate static pull test and dynamic drop test of MCB33 (modified conebolt with full dedonding) using ABAQUS. Results from the numerical models are in reasonable agreement with the test results. A parametric study is performed considering various variables (i.e. friction, cone angle, material strength, etc.) to analyze the performance of MCB33. The results demonstrate that friction between the steel and resin, cone angle, and the Poisson’s ratio of the resin affect the static and dynamic behaviors of the rockbolt. These parameters can be modified to improve the current design and enhance the overall performance of the rockbolt

Regional center for complex colonoscopy: yield of neoplasia in patients with prior incomplete colonoscopy

Background and Aims Incomplete colonoscopy increases the risk of incident proximal colon cancer postcolonoscopy. Incomplete colonoscopy is often followed by barium enema or CT colonography. We sought to describe the yield of completion colonoscopy in a regional center for complex colonoscopy. Methods This is a retrospective cohort study of 520 consecutive patients referred to a single colonoscopist over a 14-year period for completion colonoscopy after a previous incomplete examination. Results Colonoscopy was completed to the cecum in 506 of 520 patients (97.3%). A total of 913 conventional adenomas was removed in 277 patients (adenoma detection rate 53.3%). There were 184 adenomas ≥ 1 cm in size or with advanced pathology. There were 525 serrated-class lesions removed in 175 patients, including 54 sessile serrated polyps in 26 patients and 41 hyperplastic polyps greater than 1 cm in 26 patients. Nine colorectal cancers were found. We estimated that approximately 57% of the conventional adenomas, 58% of the sessile serrated polyps, 27% of the hyperplastic polyps, and all 9 cancers detected by the completion colonoscopy were beyond the extent of the previous examination. Conclusions The yield of completion colonoscopy in a cohort of patients with previous failed cecal intubation was substantial. Regional centers for complex colonoscopy can provide high rates of cecal intubation in cases of incomplete colonoscopy and high yields of lesions in these cases. The regional center for complex colonoscopy is an important medical service

A pan-Himalayan test of predictions on plant species richness based on primary production and water-energy dynamics

Spatial variation in plant species diversity is well-documented but an overarching first-principles theory for diversity variation is lacking. Chemical energy expressed as Net Primary Production (NPP) is related to a monotonic increase in species richness at a macroscale and supports one of the leading energy-productivity hypotheses, the More individuals Hypothesis. Alternatively, water-energy dynamics (WED) hypothesizes enhanced species richness when water is freely available and energy supply is optimal. This theoretical model emphasises the amount and duration of photosynthesis across the year and therefore we include the length of the growing season and its interaction with precipitation. This seasonal-WED model assumes that biotemperature and available water represent the photosynthetically active period for the plants and hence, is directly related to NPP, especially in temperate and alpine regions. This study aims to evaluate the above-mentioned theoretical models using interpolated elevational species richness of woody and herbaceous flowering plants of the entire Himalayan range based on data compiled from databases. Generalized linear models (GLM) and generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) were used to analyse species richness (elevational gamma diversity) in the six geopolitical sectors of the Himalaya. NPP, annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (derived by the Holdridge formula), and length of growing season were treated as the explanatory variables and the models were evaluated using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and explained deviance. Both precipitation plus potential evapotranspiration (PET), and NPP explain plant species richness in the Himalaya. The seasonal-WED model explains the species richness trends of both plant life-forms in all sectors of the Himalayan range better than the NPP-model. Despite the linear precipitation term failing to precisely capture the amount of water available to plants, the seasonal-WED model, which is based on the thermodynamical transition between water phases, is reasonably good and can forecast peaks in species richness under different climate and primary production conditions.publishedVersio

Alveolar Macrophages Isolated Directly From Human Cytomegalovirus (HCMV)-Seropositive Individuals Are Sites of HCMV Reactivation In Vivo.

Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) causes significant morbidity in the immunocompromised host. Following primary infection, the virus establishes latent infection in progenitor cells of the myeloid lineage. These cells exhibit limited viral gene transcription and no evidence of de novo virion production. It is well recognized that differentiation of latently infected myeloid progenitor cells to dendritic or macrophage-like cells permits viral reactivation in vitro. This has been used to support the concept that viral reactivation in HCMV carriers routinely occurs from such terminally differentiated myeloid cells in vivo. However, to date this has not been shown for in vivo-differentiated macrophages. This study is the first to demonstrate that alveolar macrophages from HCMV carriers express immediate early lytic genes and produce infectious virus. This supports the view, until now based on in vitro data, that terminally differentiated myeloid cells in vivo are sites of HCMV reactivation and potential centers of viral dissemination in latently infected individuals with no evidence of virus disease or dissemination.This work was supported by the UK Medical Research Council (grant 0701279 to J. S.) and the National Institute for Health Research UK Biomedical Research Centre (to J. S. and E. R. C.).This is the final published version. It first appeared at http://jid.oxfordjournals.org/content/211/12/1936