Contrasting Multiple Social Network Autocorrelations for Binary Outcomes, With Applications To Technology Adoption

The rise of socially targeted marketing suggests that decisions made by consumers can be predicted not only from their personal tastes and characteristics, but also from the decisions of people who are close to them in their networks. One obstacle to consider is that there may be several different measures for "closeness" that are appropriate, either through different types of friendships, or different functions of distance on one kind of friendship, where only a subset of these networks may actually be relevant. Another is that these decisions are often binary and more difficult to model with conventional approaches, both conceptually and computationally. To address these issues, we present a hierarchical model for individual binary outcomes that uses and extends the machinery of the auto-probit method for binary data. We demonstrate the behavior of the parameters estimated by the multiple network-regime auto-probit model (m-NAP) under various sensitivity conditions, such as the impact of the prior distribution and the nature of the structure of the network, and demonstrate on several examples of correlated binary data in networks of interest to Information Systems, including the adoption of Caller Ring-Back Tones, whose use is governed by direct connection but explained by additional network topologies

Transitivity correlation:A descriptive measure of network transitivity

This paper proposes that common measures for network transitivity, based on the enumeration of transitive triples, do not reflect the theoretical statements about transitivity they aim to describe. These statements are often formulated as comparative conditional probabilities, but these are not directly reflected by simple functions of enumerations. We think that a better approach is obtained by considering the probability of a tie between two randomly drawn nodes, conditional on selected features of the network. Two measures of transitivity based on correlation coefficients between the existence of a tie and the existence, or the number, of two-paths between the nodes are developed, and called "Transitivity Phi" and "Transitivity Correlation." Some desirable properties for these measures are studied and compared to existing clustering coefficients, in both random (Erdos-Renyi) and in stylized networks (windmills). Furthermore, it is shown that in a directed graph, under the condition of zero Transitivity Correlation, the total number of transitive triples is determined by four underlying features: size, density, reciprocity, and the covariance between in- and outdegrees. Also, it is demonstrated that plotting conditional probability of ties, given the number of two-paths, provides valuable insights into empirical regularities and irregularities of transitivity patterns

Airports at Risk: The Impact of Information Sources on Security Decisions

Security decisions in high risk organizations such as airports involve obtaining ongoing and frequent information about potential threats. Utilizing questionnaire survey data from a sample of airport employees in European Airports across the continent, we analyzed how both formal and informal sources of security information affect employee's decisions to comply with the security rules and directives. This led us to trace information network flows to assess its impact on the degree employees making security decisions comply or deviate with the prescribed security rules. The results of the multivariate analysis showed that security information obtained through formal and informal networks differentially determine if employee will comply or not with the rules. Information sources emanating from the informal network tends to encourage employees to be more flexible in their security decisions while formal sources lead to be more rigid with complying with rules and protocols. These results suggest that alongside the formal administrative structure of airports, there exists a diverse and pervasiveness set of informal communications networks that are a potent factor in determining airport security levels

Livestock trade network: potential for disease transmission and implications for risk-based surveillance on the island of Mayotte

The island of Mayotte is a department of France, an outermost region of the European Union located in the Indian Ocean between Madagascar and the coast of Eastern Africa. Due to its close connection to the African mainland and neighbouring islands, the island is under constant threat of introduction of infectious diseases of both human and animal origin. Here, using social network analysis and mathematical modelling, we assessed potential implications of livestock movements between communes in Mayotte for risk-based surveillance. Our analyses showed that communes in the central region of Mayotte acted as a hub in the livestock movement network. The majority of livestock movements occurred between communes in the central region and from communes in the central region to those in the outer region. Also, communes in the central region were more likely to be infected earlier than those in the outer region when the spread of an exotic infectious disease was simulated on the livestock movement network. The findings of this study, therefore, suggest that communes in the central region would play a major role in the spread of infectious diseases via livestock movements, which needs to be considered in the design of risk-based surveillance systems in Mayotte

Competition and Selection Among Conventions

In many domains, a latent competition among different conventions determines which one will come to dominate. One sees such effects in the success of community jargon, of competing frames in political rhetoric, or of terminology in technical contexts. These effects have become widespread in the online domain, where the data offers the potential to study competition among conventions at a fine-grained level. In analyzing the dynamics of conventions over time, however, even with detailed on-line data, one encounters two significant challenges. First, as conventions evolve, the underlying substance of their meaning tends to change as well; and such substantive changes confound investigations of social effects. Second, the selection of a convention takes place through the complex interactions of individuals within a community, and contention between the users of competing conventions plays a key role in the convention's evolution. Any analysis must take place in the presence of these two issues. In this work we study a setting in which we can cleanly track the competition among conventions. Our analysis is based on the spread of low-level authoring conventions in the eprint arXiv over 24 years: by tracking the spread of macros and other author-defined conventions, we are able to study conventions that vary even as the underlying meaning remains constant. We find that the interaction among co-authors over time plays a crucial role in the selection of them; the distinction between more and less experienced members of the community, and the distinction between conventions with visible versus invisible effects, are both central to the underlying processes. Through our analysis we make predictions at the population level about the ultimate success of different synonymous conventions over time--and at the individual level about the outcome of "fights" between people over convention choices.Comment: To appear in Proceedings of WWW 2017, data at https://github.com/CornellNLP/Macro

Social Cohesion, Structural Holes, and a Tale of Two Measures

EMBARGOED - author can archive pre-print or post-print on any open access repository after 12 months from publication. Publication date is May 2013 so embargoed until May 2014.This is an author’s accepted manuscript (deposited at arXiv arXiv:1211.0719v2 [physics.soc-ph] ), which was subsequently published in Journal of Statistical Physics May 2013, Volume 151, Issue 3-4, pp 745-764. The final publication is available at link.springer.com http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10955-013-0722-

Polarization of coalitions in an agent-based model of political discourse

Political discourse is the verbal interaction between political actors in a policy domain. This article explains the formation of polarized advocacy or discourse coalitions in this complex phenomenon by presenting a dynamic, stochastic, and discrete agent-based model based on graph theory and local optimization. In a series of thought experiments, actors compute their utility of contributing a specific statement to the discourse by following ideological criteria, preferential attachment, agenda-setting strategies, governmental coherence, or other mechanisms. The evolving macro-level discourse is represented as a dynamic network and evaluated against arguments from the literature on the policy process. A simple combination of four theoretical mechanisms is already able to produce artificial policy debates with theoretically plausible properties. Any sufficiently realistic configuration must entail innovative and path-dependent elements as well as a blend of exogenous preferences and endogenous opinion formation mechanisms

Key Features Relevant to Select Antigens and TCR From the MHC-Mismatched Repertoire to Treat Cancer

Adoptive transfer of T cells transgenic for tumor-reactive T-cell receptors (TCR) is an attractive immunotherapeutic approach. However, clinical translation is so far limited due to challenges in the identification of suitable target antigens as well as TCRs that are concurrent safe and efficient. Definition of key characteristics relevant for effective and specific tumor rejection is essential to improve current TCR-based adoptive T-cell immunotherapies. We here characterized in-depth two TCRs derived from the human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-mismatched allogeneic repertoire targeting two different myeloperoxidase (MPO)-derived peptides presented by the same HLA-restriction element side by side comprising state of the art biochemical and cellular in vitro, in vivo, and in silico experiments. In vitro experiments reveal comparable functional avidities, off-rates, and cytotoxic activities for both TCRs. However, we observed differences especially with respect to cytokine secretion and cross-reactivity as well as in vivo activity. Biochemical and in silico analyses demonstrate different binding qualities of MPO-peptides to the HLA-complex determining TCR qualities. We conclude from our biochemical and in silico analyses of peptide-HLA-binding that rigid and high-affinity binding of peptides is one of the most important factors for isolation of TCRs with high specificity and tumor rejection capacity from the MHC-mismatched repertoire. Based on our results, we developed a workflow for selection of such TCRs with high potency and safety profile suitable for clinical translation

Global Networks of Trade and Bits

Considerable efforts have been made in recent years to produce detailed topologies of the Internet. Although Internet topology data have been brought to the attention of a wide and somewhat diverse audience of scholars, so far they have been overlooked by economists. In this paper, we suggest that such data could be effectively treated as a proxy to characterize the size of the "digital economy" at country level and outsourcing: thus, we analyse the topological structure of the network of trade in digital services (trade in bits) and compare it with that of the more traditional flow of manufactured goods across countries. To perform meaningful comparisons across networks with different characteristics, we define a stochastic benchmark for the number of connections among each country-pair, based on hypergeometric distribution. Original data are thus filtered by means of different thresholds, so that we only focus on the strongest links, i.e., statistically significant links. We find that trade in bits displays a sparser and less hierarchical network structure, which is more similar to trade in high-skill manufactured goods than total trade. Lastly, distance plays a more prominent role in shaping the network of international trade in physical goods than trade in digital services.Comment: 25 pages, 6 figure

Generation of Functional CLL-Specific Cord Blood CTL Using CD40-Ligated CLL APC

PMCID: PMC3526610This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited