Renewable energy in North Africa: Modeling of future electricity scenarios and the impact on manufacturing and employment

The transition of the North African electricity system towards renewable energy technologies is analyzed in this thesis. Large potentials of photovoltaics (PV), concentrating solar power (CSP) and onshore wind power provide the opportunity to achieve a long-term shift from conventional power sources to a highly interconnected and sustainable electricity system based on renewable energy sources (RES). A multi-dimensional analysis evaluates the economic and technical effects on the electricity market as well as the socio-economic impact on manufacturing and employment caused by the large deployment of renewable energy technologies. The integration of renewable energy (RE) into the electricity system is modeled in a linear optimization model RESlion which minimizes total system costs of the long-term expansion planning and the hourly generation dispatch problem. With this model, the long-term portfolio mix of technologies, their site selection, required transmission capacities and the hourly operation are analyzed. The focus is set on the integration of renewable energy in the electricity systems of Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt with the option to export electricity to Southern European countries. The model results of RESlion show that a very equal portfolio mix consisting of PV, CSP and onshore wind power is optimal in long-term scenarios for the electricity system. Until the year 2050, renewable energy sources dominate with over 70% the electricity generation due to their cost competiveness to conventional power sources. In the case of flexible and dispatchable electricity exports to Europe, all three RE technologies are used by the model at a medium cost perspective. The socio-economic impact of the scenarios is evaluated by a decision model (RETMD) for local manufacturing and job creation in the renewable energy sector which is developed by incorporating findings from expert interviews in the RE industry sector. The electricity scenarios are assessed regarding their potential to create local economic impact and local jobs in manufacturing RE components and constructing RE power plants. With 40,000 to 100,000 new jobs in the RE sector of North African countries, scenarios with substantial RE deployment can provide enormous benefits to the labor market and lead to additional economic growth. The deployment of renewable energy sources in North Africa is consequently accelerated and facilitated by finding a trade-off between an optimal technology portfolio from an electricity system perspective and the opportunities through local manufacturing. By developing two model approaches for evaluating the effects of renewable energy technologies in the electricity system and in the industrial sector, this thesis contributes to the literature on energy economics and energy policy for the large-scale integration of renewable energy in North Africa.:Abstract iii Acknowledgement iv Table of contents v List of tables ix List of figures xii List of abbreviations xvi 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Renewable energy in North Africa 2 1.2 Research questions and aim of this thesis 3 1.2.1 Modeling of electricity systems 4 1.2.2 Modeling of manufacturing and employment impact 6 1.2.3 Optimal renewable energy scenarios 6 1.3 Related research 7 1.4 Structure of thesis 7 2 Modeling fundamentals for electricity systems with renewable energy sources 9 2.1 Energy system modeling 9 2.2 Electricity models 16 2.2.1 Classifications and taxonomy 17 2.2.2 Differences between operation models and planning models 20 2.2.3 Typical modeling approaches 21 2.3 Optimization models 23 2.3.1 Basic model structure 23 2.3.2 Objective functions of electricity models 24 2.3.3 Technical aspects of electricity systems as models constraints 26 2.3.4 Combining different objectives in energy scenarios 27 2.4 Models for high shares of renewable energy 28 2.5 Models for North African electricity systems 31 2.6 Conclusions for model development 34 3 Electricity system of North Africa 36 3.1 Market structure 36 3.2 National targets for renewable energy 40 3.2.1 Morocco 40 3.2.2 Algeria 41 3.2.3 Tunisia 42 3.2.4 Libya 42 3.2.5 Egypt 43 3.3 Long-term development of electricity demand 44 3.4 Electricity exports to Europe 47 3.5 Geopolitical risks for the electricity system 51 4 Development of the electricity market model RESlion 53 4.1 Model requirements and modeling goals 53 4.2 Modeling of renewable energy technologies 56 4.2.1 Onshore wind power plants and wind resources 59 4.2.2 PV power plants and solar resources 61 4.2.3 CSP plants and solar resources 63 4.2.4 Hydro power plants and energy storage systems 65 4.3 General model approach of RESlion 65 4.4 Model description of RESlion 69 4.4.1 Introduction to the model structure 69 4.4.2 Temporal coverage 70 4.4.3 Objective function 72 4.4.4 Technology independent model constraints 74 4.4.5 Regional electricity exchange: Transmission lines 76 4.4.6 Renewable energy technologies 78 4.4.7 Hydro and storage power plants 80 4.4.8 Uncertainty of input parameters and assumptions 81 4.5 Modeling of expansion planning 83 4.6 Modeling of detailed hourly generation dispatch 83 4.7 Extension options to a Mixed Integer Linear Programming model 84 4.8 Solver selection and implementation environment 85 5 Model-based analysis of future electricity scenarios for North Africa 86 5.1 Scenario assumptions 86 5.2 Scenario definition 89 5.3 Technical and economic input data 94 5.4 Model adjustment 99 5.4.1 Electricity generation in reference year 2010 99 5.4.2 Testing of results with detailed hourly generation dispatch 100 5.5 Electricity scenarios for North Africa by 2050 102 5.5.1 Development of the generation system 102 5.5.2 System and generation costs 106 5.5.3 Site selection of RES generation capacities 108 5.5.4 Regional transmission lines 114 5.5.5 Energy storage systems 118 5.5.6 Technology specific generation 119 5.5.7 CO2 emissions 126 5.6 Sensitivity analyses 126 5.6.1 Adaption of market conditions: Split of electricity markets 127 5.6.2 Technology focus 127 5.6.3 Adaption of cost trends for fossil fuels, transmission lines and storage systems 129 5.7 Technology specific findings for CSP, PV and wind power 131 5.7.1 Typical sites and locations for electricity generation from RES 131 5.7.2 Influence of wind speeds and solar irradiation 131 5.7.3 Interactions with conventional power plants 132 5.8 Electricity scenarios with export to Europe 133 5.9 Discussion of RESlion model and its results 139 6 Model development for socio-economic impact analysis 142 6.1 The idea of combining a cost-optimized electricity system with a socio-economic analysis 142 6.2 Literature review and terminology 145 6.3 Data acquisition and further studies 148 6.4 Model description of RETMD 151 6.4.1 Model objectives 151 6.4.2 Model structure and decision modeling 152 6.4.3 Model limitations and uncertainties 156 6.5 Data input of RETMD 157 6.5.1 Construction of reference power plants 157 6.5.2 Operation of reference power plants 159 6.5.3 Status quo of local manufacturing in recent RE projects 160 6.6 Sensitivity of RETMD on market size and know-how 161 6.7 Discussion of model achievements 163 7 Manufacturing and employment impact of optimized electricity scenarios 165 7.1 Demand scenarios for the RE markets from 2012 to 2030 165 7.2 Economic impact and employment creation 166 7.3 Technology specific development of local manufacturing 168 7.4 Country specific development of local manufacturing 172 7.5 Potentials of local manufacturing in each scenarios 174 7.6 Local economic impact 176 7.7 Local employment impact 177 7.8 Evaluation of scenario results 181 7.9 Electricity system analysis and RE manufacturing: Results and discussion of the combined analysis 183 8 Conclusions and outlook 186 8.1 Conclusion on model developments 186 8.2 Conclusion on renewable energy in North Africa 187 8.3 Outlook and further research 189 9 Bibliography 191 10 Appendix 21

Renewable energy in North Africa: Modeling of future electricity scenarios and the impact on manufacturing and employment

The transition of the North African electricity system towards renewable energy technologies is analyzed in this thesis. Large potentials of photovoltaics (PV), concentrating solar power (CSP) and onshore wind power provide the opportunity to achieve a long-term shift from conventional power sources to a highly interconnected and sustainable electricity system based on renewable energy sources (RES). A multi-dimensional analysis evaluates the economic and technical effects on the electricity market as well as the socio-economic impact on manufacturing and employment caused by the large deployment of renewable energy technologies. The integration of renewable energy (RE) into the electricity system is modeled in a linear optimization model RESlion which minimizes total system costs of the long-term expansion planning and the hourly generation dispatch problem. With this model, the long-term portfolio mix of technologies, their site selection, required transmission capacities and the hourly operation are analyzed. The focus is set on the integration of renewable energy in the electricity systems of Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt with the option to export electricity to Southern European countries. The model results of RESlion show that a very equal portfolio mix consisting of PV, CSP and onshore wind power is optimal in long-term scenarios for the electricity system. Until the year 2050, renewable energy sources dominate with over 70% the electricity generation due to their cost competiveness to conventional power sources. In the case of flexible and dispatchable electricity exports to Europe, all three RE technologies are used by the model at a medium cost perspective. The socio-economic impact of the scenarios is evaluated by a decision model (RETMD) for local manufacturing and job creation in the renewable energy sector which is developed by incorporating findings from expert interviews in the RE industry sector. The electricity scenarios are assessed regarding their potential to create local economic impact and local jobs in manufacturing RE components and constructing RE power plants. With 40,000 to 100,000 new jobs in the RE sector of North African countries, scenarios with substantial RE deployment can provide enormous benefits to the labor market and lead to additional economic growth. The deployment of renewable energy sources in North Africa is consequently accelerated and facilitated by finding a trade-off between an optimal technology portfolio from an electricity system perspective and the opportunities through local manufacturing. By developing two model approaches for evaluating the effects of renewable energy technologies in the electricity system and in the industrial sector, this thesis contributes to the literature on energy economics and energy policy for the large-scale integration of renewable energy in North Africa.:Abstract iii Acknowledgement iv Table of contents v List of tables ix List of figures xii List of abbreviations xvi 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Renewable energy in North Africa 2 1.2 Research questions and aim of this thesis 3 1.2.1 Modeling of electricity systems 4 1.2.2 Modeling of manufacturing and employment impact 6 1.2.3 Optimal renewable energy scenarios 6 1.3 Related research 7 1.4 Structure of thesis 7 2 Modeling fundamentals for electricity systems with renewable energy sources 9 2.1 Energy system modeling 9 2.2 Electricity models 16 2.2.1 Classifications and taxonomy 17 2.2.2 Differences between operation models and planning models 20 2.2.3 Typical modeling approaches 21 2.3 Optimization models 23 2.3.1 Basic model structure 23 2.3.2 Objective functions of electricity models 24 2.3.3 Technical aspects of electricity systems as models constraints 26 2.3.4 Combining different objectives in energy scenarios 27 2.4 Models for high shares of renewable energy 28 2.5 Models for North African electricity systems 31 2.6 Conclusions for model development 34 3 Electricity system of North Africa 36 3.1 Market structure 36 3.2 National targets for renewable energy 40 3.2.1 Morocco 40 3.2.2 Algeria 41 3.2.3 Tunisia 42 3.2.4 Libya 42 3.2.5 Egypt 43 3.3 Long-term development of electricity demand 44 3.4 Electricity exports to Europe 47 3.5 Geopolitical risks for the electricity system 51 4 Development of the electricity market model RESlion 53 4.1 Model requirements and modeling goals 53 4.2 Modeling of renewable energy technologies 56 4.2.1 Onshore wind power plants and wind resources 59 4.2.2 PV power plants and solar resources 61 4.2.3 CSP plants and solar resources 63 4.2.4 Hydro power plants and energy storage systems 65 4.3 General model approach of RESlion 65 4.4 Model description of RESlion 69 4.4.1 Introduction to the model structure 69 4.4.2 Temporal coverage 70 4.4.3 Objective function 72 4.4.4 Technology independent model constraints 74 4.4.5 Regional electricity exchange: Transmission lines 76 4.4.6 Renewable energy technologies 78 4.4.7 Hydro and storage power plants 80 4.4.8 Uncertainty of input parameters and assumptions 81 4.5 Modeling of expansion planning 83 4.6 Modeling of detailed hourly generation dispatch 83 4.7 Extension options to a Mixed Integer Linear Programming model 84 4.8 Solver selection and implementation environment 85 5 Model-based analysis of future electricity scenarios for North Africa 86 5.1 Scenario assumptions 86 5.2 Scenario definition 89 5.3 Technical and economic input data 94 5.4 Model adjustment 99 5.4.1 Electricity generation in reference year 2010 99 5.4.2 Testing of results with detailed hourly generation dispatch 100 5.5 Electricity scenarios for North Africa by 2050 102 5.5.1 Development of the generation system 102 5.5.2 System and generation costs 106 5.5.3 Site selection of RES generation capacities 108 5.5.4 Regional transmission lines 114 5.5.5 Energy storage systems 118 5.5.6 Technology specific generation 119 5.5.7 CO2 emissions 126 5.6 Sensitivity analyses 126 5.6.1 Adaption of market conditions: Split of electricity markets 127 5.6.2 Technology focus 127 5.6.3 Adaption of cost trends for fossil fuels, transmission lines and storage systems 129 5.7 Technology specific findings for CSP, PV and wind power 131 5.7.1 Typical sites and locations for electricity generation from RES 131 5.7.2 Influence of wind speeds and solar irradiation 131 5.7.3 Interactions with conventional power plants 132 5.8 Electricity scenarios with export to Europe 133 5.9 Discussion of RESlion model and its results 139 6 Model development for socio-economic impact analysis 142 6.1 The idea of combining a cost-optimized electricity system with a socio-economic analysis 142 6.2 Literature review and terminology 145 6.3 Data acquisition and further studies 148 6.4 Model description of RETMD 151 6.4.1 Model objectives 151 6.4.2 Model structure and decision modeling 152 6.4.3 Model limitations and uncertainties 156 6.5 Data input of RETMD 157 6.5.1 Construction of reference power plants 157 6.5.2 Operation of reference power plants 159 6.5.3 Status quo of local manufacturing in recent RE projects 160 6.6 Sensitivity of RETMD on market size and know-how 161 6.7 Discussion of model achievements 163 7 Manufacturing and employment impact of optimized electricity scenarios 165 7.1 Demand scenarios for the RE markets from 2012 to 2030 165 7.2 Economic impact and employment creation 166 7.3 Technology specific development of local manufacturing 168 7.4 Country specific development of local manufacturing 172 7.5 Potentials of local manufacturing in each scenarios 174 7.6 Local economic impact 176 7.7 Local employment impact 177 7.8 Evaluation of scenario results 181 7.9 Electricity system analysis and RE manufacturing: Results and discussion of the combined analysis 183 8 Conclusions and outlook 186 8.1 Conclusion on model developments 186 8.2 Conclusion on renewable energy in North Africa 187 8.3 Outlook and further research 189 9 Bibliography 191 10 Appendix 21

High-fidelity simulation increases obstetric self-assurance and skills in undergraduate medical students

Objective: Teaching intrapartum care is one of the most challenging tasks in undergraduate medical education. High-fidelity obstetric simulators might support students' learning experience. The specific educational impact of these simulators compared with traditional methods of model-based obstetric teaching has not yet been determined. Study design: We randomly assigned 46 undergraduate medical students to be taught using either a high-fidelity simulator or a scale wood-and-leather phantom. Their self-assessments were evaluated using a validated questionnaire. We assessed obstetric skills and asked students to solve obstetric paper cases. Main outcome measures: Assessment of fidelity-specific teaching impact on procedural knowledge, motivation, and interest in obstetrics as well as obstetric skills using high- and low-fidelity training models. Results: High-fidelity simulation specifically improved students' feeling that they understood both the physiology of parturition and the obstetric procedures. Students in the simulation group also felt better prepared for obstetric house jobs and performed better in obstetric skills evaluations. However, the two groups made equivalent obstetric decisions. Conclusion: This study provides first data on the impact of high-fidelity simulation in an undergraduate setting

The influence of obesity on survival in early, high-risk breast cancer: results from the randomized SUCCESS A trial

Introduction: Obese breast cancer patients have worse prognosis than normal weight patients, but the level at which obesity is prognostically unfavorable is unclear. Methods: This retrospective analysis was performed using data from the SUCCESS A trial, in which 3754 patients with high-risk early breast cancer were randomized to anthracycline- and taxane-based chemotherapy with or without gemcitabine. Patients were classified as underweight/normal weight (body mass index (BMI) < 25.0), overweight (BMI 25.0–29.9), slightly obese (BMI 30.0–34.9), moderately obese (BMI 35.0–39.9) and severely obese (BMI ≥ 40.0), and the effect of BMI on disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) was evaluated (median follow-up 65 months). In addition, subgroup analyses were conducted to assess the effect of BMI in luminal A-like, luminal B-like, HER2 (human epidermal growth factor 2)-positive and triple-negative tumors. Results: Multivariate analyses revealed an independent prognostic effect of BMI on DFS (p = 0.001) and OS (p = 0.005). Compared with underweight/normal weight patients, severely obese patients had worse DFS (hazard ratio (HR) 2.70, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.71–4.28, p < 0.001) and OS (HR 2.79, 95 % CI 1.63–4.77, p < 0.001), while moderately obese, slightly obese and overweight patients did not differ from underweight/normal weight patients with regard to DFS or OS. Subgroup analyses showed a similar significant effect of BMI on DFS and OS in patients with triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC), but not in patients with other tumor subtypes. Conclusions: Severe obesity (BMI ≥ 40) significantly worsens prognosis in early breast cancer patients, particularly for triple-negative tumors. Trial registration: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT02181101. Registered September 200

Deutschland auf dem Weg zur Klimaneutralität 2045 - Szenarien und Pfade im Modellvergleich (Zusammenfassung)

Erstmals stellt die vorliegende Szenarienanalyse für Deutschland konkreteTransformationspfade zur Klimaneutralität 2045 auf der Basis eines umfassenden Modellvergleichs vor. Das Besondere an dieser Studie des Ariadne-Projektes ist, dass sechs Gesamtsystem- und Sek-tormodelle in einer Studie integriert wurden, die sich in ihren jeweiligen Stärken ergänzen: Für spezifische Fragestellungen wurde jeweils dasjenige Modell als Leitmodell hervorgehoben, welches die entsprechenden Aspekte am genauesten abbildet. Weitere Modelle wurden genutzt, um Auswirkungen der Transformation auf Umweltschutzgüter und die Verteilung der Kosten auf verschiedene Einkommensgruppen zu analysieren.Dieser breit gefächerte Ansatz ermöglicht es, die Implikationen der Energiewende robust und im Detail zu beschreiben

Renewable energy in North Africa: Modeling of future electricity scenarios and the impact on manufacturing and employment

The transition of the North African electricity system towards renewable energy technologies is analyzed in this thesis. Large potentials of photovoltaics (PV), concentrating solar power (CSP) and onshore wind power provide the opportunity to achieve a long-term shift from conventional power sources to a highly interconnected and sustainable electricity system based on renewable energy sources (RES). A multi-dimensional analysis evaluates the economic and technical effects on the electricity market as well as the socio-economic impact on manufacturing and employment caused by the large deployment of renewable energy technologies. The integration of renewable energy (RE) into the electricity system is modeled in a linear optimization model RESlion which minimizes total system costs of the long-term expansion planning and the hourly generation dispatch problem. With this model, the long-term portfolio mix of technologies, their site selection, required transmission capacities and the hourly operation are analyzed. The focus is set on the integration of renewable energy in the electricity systems of Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt with the option to export electricity to Southern European countries. The model results of RESlion show that a very equal portfolio mix consisting of PV, CSP and onshore wind power is optimal in long-term scenarios for the electricity system. Until the year 2050, renewable energy sources dominate with over 70% the electricity generation due to their cost competiveness to conventional power sources. In the case of flexible and dispatchable electricity exports to Europe, all three RE technologies are used by the model at a medium cost perspective. The socio-economic impact of the scenarios is evaluated by a decision model (RETMD) for local manufacturing and job creation in the renewable energy sector which is developed by incorporating findings from expert interviews in the RE industry sector. The electricity scenarios are assessed regarding their potential to create local economic impact and local jobs in manufacturing RE components and constructing RE power plants. With 40,000 to 100,000 new jobs in the RE sector of North African countries, scenarios with substantial RE deployment can provide enormous benefits to the labor market and lead to additional economic growth. The deployment of renewable energy sources in North Africa is consequently accelerated and facilitated by finding a trade-off between an optimal technology portfolio from an electricity system perspective and the opportunities through local manufacturing. By developing two model approaches for evaluating the effects of renewable energy technologies in the electricity system and in the industrial sector, this thesis contributes to the literature on energy economics and energy policy for the large-scale integration of renewable energy in North Africa.:Abstract iii Acknowledgement iv Table of contents v List of tables ix List of figures xii List of abbreviations xvi 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Renewable energy in North Africa 2 1.2 Research questions and aim of this thesis 3 1.2.1 Modeling of electricity systems 4 1.2.2 Modeling of manufacturing and employment impact 6 1.2.3 Optimal renewable energy scenarios 6 1.3 Related research 7 1.4 Structure of thesis 7 2 Modeling fundamentals for electricity systems with renewable energy sources 9 2.1 Energy system modeling 9 2.2 Electricity models 16 2.2.1 Classifications and taxonomy 17 2.2.2 Differences between operation models and planning models 20 2.2.3 Typical modeling approaches 21 2.3 Optimization models 23 2.3.1 Basic model structure 23 2.3.2 Objective functions of electricity models 24 2.3.3 Technical aspects of electricity systems as models constraints 26 2.3.4 Combining different objectives in energy scenarios 27 2.4 Models for high shares of renewable energy 28 2.5 Models for North African electricity systems 31 2.6 Conclusions for model development 34 3 Electricity system of North Africa 36 3.1 Market structure 36 3.2 National targets for renewable energy 40 3.2.1 Morocco 40 3.2.2 Algeria 41 3.2.3 Tunisia 42 3.2.4 Libya 42 3.2.5 Egypt 43 3.3 Long-term development of electricity demand 44 3.4 Electricity exports to Europe 47 3.5 Geopolitical risks for the electricity system 51 4 Development of the electricity market model RESlion 53 4.1 Model requirements and modeling goals 53 4.2 Modeling of renewable energy technologies 56 4.2.1 Onshore wind power plants and wind resources 59 4.2.2 PV power plants and solar resources 61 4.2.3 CSP plants and solar resources 63 4.2.4 Hydro power plants and energy storage systems 65 4.3 General model approach of RESlion 65 4.4 Model description of RESlion 69 4.4.1 Introduction to the model structure 69 4.4.2 Temporal coverage 70 4.4.3 Objective function 72 4.4.4 Technology independent model constraints 74 4.4.5 Regional electricity exchange: Transmission lines 76 4.4.6 Renewable energy technologies 78 4.4.7 Hydro and storage power plants 80 4.4.8 Uncertainty of input parameters and assumptions 81 4.5 Modeling of expansion planning 83 4.6 Modeling of detailed hourly generation dispatch 83 4.7 Extension options to a Mixed Integer Linear Programming model 84 4.8 Solver selection and implementation environment 85 5 Model-based analysis of future electricity scenarios for North Africa 86 5.1 Scenario assumptions 86 5.2 Scenario definition 89 5.3 Technical and economic input data 94 5.4 Model adjustment 99 5.4.1 Electricity generation in reference year 2010 99 5.4.2 Testing of results with detailed hourly generation dispatch 100 5.5 Electricity scenarios for North Africa by 2050 102 5.5.1 Development of the generation system 102 5.5.2 System and generation costs 106 5.5.3 Site selection of RES generation capacities 108 5.5.4 Regional transmission lines 114 5.5.5 Energy storage systems 118 5.5.6 Technology specific generation 119 5.5.7 CO2 emissions 126 5.6 Sensitivity analyses 126 5.6.1 Adaption of market conditions: Split of electricity markets 127 5.6.2 Technology focus 127 5.6.3 Adaption of cost trends for fossil fuels, transmission lines and storage systems 129 5.7 Technology specific findings for CSP, PV and wind power 131 5.7.1 Typical sites and locations for electricity generation from RES 131 5.7.2 Influence of wind speeds and solar irradiation 131 5.7.3 Interactions with conventional power plants 132 5.8 Electricity scenarios with export to Europe 133 5.9 Discussion of RESlion model and its results 139 6 Model development for socio-economic impact analysis 142 6.1 The idea of combining a cost-optimized electricity system with a socio-economic analysis 142 6.2 Literature review and terminology 145 6.3 Data acquisition and further studies 148 6.4 Model description of RETMD 151 6.4.1 Model objectives 151 6.4.2 Model structure and decision modeling 152 6.4.3 Model limitations and uncertainties 156 6.5 Data input of RETMD 157 6.5.1 Construction of reference power plants 157 6.5.2 Operation of reference power plants 159 6.5.3 Status quo of local manufacturing in recent RE projects 160 6.6 Sensitivity of RETMD on market size and know-how 161 6.7 Discussion of model achievements 163 7 Manufacturing and employment impact of optimized electricity scenarios 165 7.1 Demand scenarios for the RE markets from 2012 to 2030 165 7.2 Economic impact and employment creation 166 7.3 Technology specific development of local manufacturing 168 7.4 Country specific development of local manufacturing 172 7.5 Potentials of local manufacturing in each scenarios 174 7.6 Local economic impact 176 7.7 Local employment impact 177 7.8 Evaluation of scenario results 181 7.9 Electricity system analysis and RE manufacturing: Results and discussion of the combined analysis 183 8 Conclusions and outlook 186 8.1 Conclusion on model developments 186 8.2 Conclusion on renewable energy in North Africa 187 8.3 Outlook and further research 189 9 Bibliography 191 10 Appendix 21