Near future climate change projections with implications for the agricultural sector of three major Mediterranean islands

AbstractThe paper presents the analysis of a sub-set of high-resolution bias-adjusted simulations from the EURO-CORDEX initiative, in order to examine the changes in the mean climate and the extremes in three Mediterranean islands, namely, Sicily, Crete and Cyprus, in the near future (2031–2060) compared to the present climate (1971–2000), under two future scenarios, i.e. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The analysis entails commonly used climatic indices of interest related to the islands' agricultural sector. The results indicate robust increases for both the mean maximum and minimum temperatures on a seasonal basis, as well as for the temperature related extremes under both climate scenarios. On the contrary, the changes in precipitation are less pronounced as the changes in the seasonal precipitation are not found statistically significant for the three islands under both scenarios. The projected warming combined with the projected unchanged precipitation pattern in the future, especially in spring and summer, might expose the crops to conditions with a negative impact on the plants' phenology, leading to implications on crop production and quality. The results presented here might be the basis for the development of an adaptation strategy specifically targeted on the three islands but also replicable to other Mediterranean islands

Assessing climate change impacts on crops by adopting a set of crop performance indicators

AbstractThe impact of climate change on the agricultural systems of three major islands in the Mediterranean basin, namely Sicily, Crete and Cyprus, was evaluated using a suite of specifically calibrated crop models and the outputs of a regional circulation model for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 downscaled to 12 km of resolution and tested for its effectiveness in reproducing the local meteorological data. The most important annual (wheat, barley, tomato and potato) and perennial (grapevine and olive tree) crops were selected to represent the agricultural systems of the islands. The same modelling framework was used to test the effectiveness of autonomous adaptation options, such as shifting sowing date and the use of varieties with different growing season length. The results highlighted that, on average, warmer temperatures advanced both anthesis and maturity of the selected crops, but at different magnitudes depending on the crop and the island. Winter crops (barley, wheat and potato) experienced the lowest impact in terms of yield loss with respect to the baseline, with even some positive effects, especially in Sicily where both wheat and barley showed a general increase of 9% as compared to the baseline, while potato increased up to + 17%. Amongst perennial crops, olive tree showed low variation under RCP 4.5, but on average increased by 7% under RCP 8.5 on the three islands. Climate change had a detrimental effect specifically on tomato (− 2% on average in RCP 8.5 and 4.5 on the three islands) and grapevine (− 7%). The use of different sowing dates, or different varieties, revealed that for winter crops early autumn sowing is still the best option for producing wheat and barley in future periods on the three islands under both future scenarios. For tomato and potato, advancing sowing date to early winter is a winning strategy that may even increase final yield (+ 9% for tomato and + 17% for potato, on average). For grapevine, the use of late varieties, while suffering the most from increasing temperatures and reduced rainfall (− 15%, on average), is still a valuable option to keep high yield levels with respect to earlier varieties, which even if showing some increases with respect to the baseline have a generally much lower production level. The same may be applied to olive tree although the production differences between late and early varieties are less evident and climate change exerts a favourable influence (+ 4 and + 3% for early and late varieties, respectively)

Is the ozone climate penalty robust in Europe?

Ozone air pollution is identified as one of the main threats bearing upon human health and ecosystems, with 25 000 deaths in 2005 attributed to surface ozone in Europe (IIASA 2013 TSAP Report #10). In addition, there is a concern that climate change could negate ozone pollution mitigation strategies, making them insufficient over the long run and jeopardising chances to meet the long term objective set by the European Union Directive of 2008 (Directive 2008/50/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2008) (60 ppbv, daily maximum). This effect has been termed the ozone climate penalty. One way of assessing this climate penalty is by driving chemistry-transport models with future climate projections while holding the ozone precursor emissions constant (although the climate penalty may also be influenced by changes in emission of precursors). Here we present an analysis of the robustness of the climate penalty in Europe across time periods and scenarios by analysing the databases underlying 11 articles published on the topic since 2007, i.e. a total of 25 model projections. This substantial body of literature has never been explored to assess the uncertainty and robustness of the climate ozone penalty because of the use of different scenarios, time periods and ozone metrics. Despite the variability of model design and setup in this database of 25 model projection, the present meta-analysis demonstrates the significance and robustness of the impact of climate change on European surface ozone with a latitudinal gradient from a penalty bearing upon large parts of continental Europe and a benefit over the North Atlantic region of the domain. Future climate scenarios present a penalty for summertime (JJA) surface ozone by the end of the century (2071-2100) of at most 5 ppbv. Over European land surfaces, the 95% confidence interval of JJA ozone change is [0.44; 0.64] and [0.99; 1.50] ppbv for the 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 time windows, respectively

On the Use of Reanalysis Data to Reconstruct Missing Observed Daily Temperatures in Europe over a Lengthy Period of Time

In this study, a methodology that can reconstruct missing daily values of maximum and minimum temperatures over a long time period under the assumption of a sparse network of meteorological stations is described. To achieve this, a well-established software used for quality control, homogenization and the infilling of missing climatological series data, Climatol, is used to combine a mosaic of data, including daily observations from 15 European stations and daily data from two high-resolution reanalysis datasets, ERA5-Land and MESCAN-SURFEX; this is in order reconstruct daily values over the 2000–2018 period. By comparing frequently used indices, defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) in studies of climate change assessment and goodness-of-fit measures, the reconstructed time series are evaluated against the observed ones. The analysis reveals that the ERA5-Land reconstructions outperform the MESCAN-SURFEX ones when compared to the observations in terms of biases, the various indices evaluated, and in terms of the goodness of fit for both the daily maximum and minimum temperatures. In addition, the magnitude and significance of the observed long-term temporal trends maintained in the reconstructions, in the majority of the stations examined, for both the daily maximum and daily minimum temperatures, is an issue of the greatest relevance in many climatic studies

Spatial Variability in the Effect of High Ambient Temperature on Mortality: An Analysis at Municipality Level within the Greater Athens Area

Spatial variability in temperature exists within metropolitan areas but very few studies have investigated intra-urban differentiation in the temperature-mortality effects. We investigated whether local characteristics of 42 Municipalities within the Greater Athens Area lead to modified temperature effects on mortality and if effect modifiers can be identified. Generalized Estimating Equations models were used to assess the effect of high ambient temperature on the total and cause-specific daily number of deaths and meta-regression to investigate effect modification. We found significant effects of daily temperature increases on all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality (e.g., for all ages 4.16% (95% CI: 3.73,4.60%) per 1 degrees C increase in daily temperature (lags 0-3). Heterogeneity in the effect estimates between Municipalities was observed in several outcomes and environmental and socio-economic effect modifying variables were identified, such as % area coverage of buildings, length of roads/km(2), population density, % unemployed, % born outside the EU countries and mean daily temperature. To further examine the role of temperature, we alternatively used modelled temperature per Municipality and calculated the effects. We found that heterogeneity was reduced but not eliminated. It appears that there are socioeconomic status and environmental determinants of the magnitude of heat-related effects on mortality, which are detected with some consistency and should be further investigated

Climate Change Scenarios and Their Implications on the Energy Performance of Hellenic Non-Residential Buildings

It is important to understand how the climate is changing in order to prepare for the future, adapt if necessary, and, most importantly, take proper precautionary measures to alleviate major negative impacts. This work investigates the potential impacts of climate change on the anticipated energy performance of the existing Hellenic building stock until the end of the century. The assessment considers average climatic projections for two future time periods, one for the near and one for the distant future, following two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The first one is a baseline scenario (RCP8.5) representing the highest greenhouse gas emissions. The second is an intermediate stabilization scenario (RCP4.5), assuming the imposition of conservative emissions mitigation policies. The future climate data are generated for 62 cities throughout Greece. As a case study, the work focuses on Hellenic non-residential (NR) whole buildings, analyzing available data collected during about 2500 energy audits of real NR buildings. The available data are used to assess the buildings’ heating and cooling demand and energy use. The annual average air temperature for Greece in 2050 is projected to increase by 1.5 K for the RCP4.5 scenario and by 1.9 K for the RCP8.5 scenario. In 2090, the increase is estimated to reach 1.7 K and 4.2 K, respectively. Accordingly, if the existing NR buildings are not renovated, the average heating energy use is expected to decrease by 22–26% in 2050 and by 23–52% in 2090. On the other hand, the average cooling energy use is expected to increase by 24–30% in 2050 and by 28–66% in 2090

Modification of heat-related effects on mortality by air pollution concentration, at small-area level, in the Attica prefecture, Greece

Abstract Background The independent effects of short-term exposure to increased air temperature and air pollution on mortality are well-documented. There is some evidence indicating that elevated concentrations of air pollutants may lead to increased heat-related mortality, but this evidence is not consistent. Most of these effects have been documented through time-series studies using city-wide data, rather than at a finer spatial level. In our study, we examined the possible modification of the heat effects on total and cause-specific mortality by air pollution at municipality level in the Attica region, Greece, during the warm period of the years 2000 to 2016. Methods A municipality-specific over-dispersed Poisson regression model during the warm season (May–September) was used to investigate the heat effects on mortality and their modification by air pollution. We used the two-day average of the daily mean temperature and daily mean PM10, NO2 and 8 hour-max ozone (O3), derived from models, in each municipality as exposures. A bivariate tensor smoother was applied for temperature and each pollutant alternatively, by municipality. Α random-effects meta-analysis was used to obtain pooled estimates of the heat effects at different pollution levels. Heterogeneity of the between-levels differences of the heat effects was evaluated with a Q-test. Results A rise in mean temperature from the 75th to the 99th percentile of the municipality-specific temperature distribution resulted in an increase in total mortality of 12.4% (95% Confidence Interval (CI):7.76–17.24) on low PM10 days, and 21.25% (95% CI: 17.83–24.76) on high PM10 days. The increase on mortality was 10.09% (95% CI: − 5.62- 28.41) on low ozone days, and 14.95% (95% CI: 10.79–19.27) on high ozone days. For cause-specific mortality an increasing trend of the heat effects with increasing PM10 and ozone levels was also observed. An inconsistent pattern was observed for the modification of the heat effects by NO2, with higher heat effects estimated in the lower level of the pollutant. Conclusions Our results support the evidence of elevated heat effects on mortality at higher levels of PM10 and 8 h max O3. Under climate change, any policy targeted at lowering air pollution levels will yield significant public health benefits

Assessment of Total Climate Change Impacts on the Agricultural Sector of Cyprus

In this paper, the results of a climate change impact and vulnerability assessment conducted for the agricultural sector of Cyprus are presented. The assessment is based on the outputs of specialized climatic and crop models, while it incorporates quantified socio-economic vulnerability indicators of the Cypriot agriculture. The results are aggregated at municipal level in order to support regional and local adaptation planning. The assessment was performed for two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5, RCP8.5), as well as for extreme climatic scenarios. Following, an economic assessment was made on the expected change in revenues of the agricultural sector. The results of climatic simulations indicated that future increases in temperature will be characterized by a strong seasonal trend, with the highest increases occurring in summer. Precipitation is expected to decrease throughout the island, where the highest decreases (50%) are expected during summer (RCP8.5). This trend will affect mainly tomato, grapevine, and olive tree, whose growing cycle takes place during summer. By contrast, crops covering autumn-winter season, such as potato, barley, and wheat, are expected to partially avoid harsh summer conditions. The results of the economic assessment show that the changes in total revenues are insignificant, because, under all scenarios, a loss in one crop is compensated by a gain in another crop. However, the farmers as well as the government should take action to increase the resilience of the agricultural sector, with a special focus on those crops and areas that are expected to be adversely affected by climate change impacts

Integration of the Climate Impact Assessments with Future Projections ,in (A.Navarra and L.Tubiana eds), Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterran

Climate projections are essential in order to extend the case-study impacts and vulnerability assessments to encompass future climate change. Thus climatemodel based indicators for the future (to 2050 and for the A1B emissions scenario) are presented for the climate and atmosphere theme (including indices of temperature and precipitation extreme events), together with biogeophysical and socioeconomic indicators encompassing the other case-study themes. For the latter, the speci fi c examples presented here include peri-urban fi res, air pollution, human health risks, energy demand, alien marine species and tourism (attractiveness and socio-economic consequences). The primary source of information about future climate is the set of global and regional model simulations performed as part of CIRCE. These have the main novel characteristic of incorporating a realistic representation of the Mediterranean Sea including coupling between sea and atmosphere. These projections are inevitably subject to uncertainties relating to unpredictability, model structural uncertainty and value uncertainty. These uncertainties are addressed by taking a multi-model approach, but problems remain, for example, due to a systematic cold bias in the CIRCE models. In the context of the case-study integrated assessments, there are also uncertainties \u2018downstream\u2019 of climate modeling and the construction of climate change projections \u2013 largely relating to the modeling of impacts. In addition, there are uncertainties associated with all socio-economic projections used in the case studies \u2013 such as population projections. Thus there are uncertainties inherent to all stages of the integrated assessments and it is important to consider all these aspects in the context of adaptation decision making