A GIS based anthropogenic PM10 emission inventory for Greece

AbstractAn anthropogenic, chemically speciated PM10 emission inventory was compiled for Greece in 10km spatial resolution. The inventory comprises of all anthropogenic particulate matter sources and it was compiled using a Geographical Information System (GIS) integrated with SQL programming language. Input data from the national and international databases were used for the calculation of spatially and temporally resolved emissions for the road transport and all the subsectors of the other mobile sources and machinery sector using top–down or bottom–up methodologies. Annual data from existing emission databases were also used and were temporally and spatially disaggregated using source relevant statistical data and high resolution maps. The sectoral emission totals are compared with other emission databases or studies conducted in the area. Total anthropogenic emissions in Greece were estimated to be 182 219t for the base year 2003. The results indicate the industrial sector as the major PM10 emission source (39.9% contribution) with the major industrial units though to be situated inside the organised industrial areas of the country. The power generation sector (21.4%) is the second largest contributor in national level mostly derived from one specific industrial region at north. International cargo shipping activities (9.6%) is also an important source category for particles. Heat production and road transport are found to play a significant role inside the urban centres of the country

A cointegrating stock trading strategy: application to listed tanker shipping companies

In the current paper, we propose a strategy to trade a portfolio of listed shipping companies in the US market. In particular, we estimate a co-integrating relationship between the weekly stock market returns of a portfolio of tanker shipping companies and the Baltic Tanker Index, exploiting the close relationship between freight rates and the stock market performance of shipping companies. Our results suggest that a trading strategy on the basis of a co-integrating relationship and a simple moving average rule outperforms, by approximately 50%, a standard buy-and-hold strategy in various investment horizons, often by a very wide margin. Given the latter, the results allow us to enhance the current literature on shipping finance by providing evidence of how simple investment strategies can benefit both retail and institutional investors who do not have direct exposure or experience in the shipping industry by allowing them to include shipping stocks in their portfolios. The shipping industry has not been open for a wider circle of investors since its inception (Harlafti and Papakonstantinou 2013). Ties within the industry have been close and family relationships have been, most often than not, predominant (Harlaftis and Theotokas 2007). Nevertheless, the increase in vessel prices since the 1970s has brought up the question of whether shipping companies should use external lending financing or float in the markets. Nonetheless, it was not until the mid-2000s that an increasing number of shipping enterprises decided to relinquish information of their modus operandi and enlist in the world stock markets (Merikas et al. 2009). The increased number of companies in the market provided investors with an alternative way to invest in the shipping industry. Interested parties no longer need to acquire actual assets (vessels) but only hold stocks of shipping companies. Even in this case, however, little is currently known regarding the performance of the shipping companies in the stock market. The existing literature just provides information regarding IPOs (Merikas et al. 2009) and M&As (Alexandrou et al. 2014) in the industry. Nonetheless, there exists no study, at least to our knowledge, which employs a trading strategy based solely on shipping stock companies. In the current paper, we build on the literature’s premise that freight rates are the predominant factor which affects the companies’ performance (see also next Section) and propose a trading strategy for a portfolio of tanker shipping companies that are listed in the US stock markets. As expected, we find that these companies exhibit a long-run common path with the Baltic Tanker Index. Given this relationship, we propose a long-short trading strategy on the basis of a cointegration model and a simple moving average rule, which appears to outperform the classic buy-and-hold approach across various investment horizons, often by a wide margin. We have employed the buy-and-hold approach as a benchmark of our strategy, since it tends to be denoted to investors that are not actively trading in the stock markets (Shilling 1992). Thus, we propose that the specific active trading technique, that we propose, can give higher returns when compared to a passive investment strategy. The remainder of the paper is organized as follows: the next section provides a review of the existing literature on the shipping companies’ stock prices, their unique characteristics and the (non-stock market) trading strategies that have been introduced by other researchers. Section 3 presents the methodology and the data we have used, Section 4 offers the results and the last Section provides a general overview along with the conclusions reached by this paper

Evaluation of IScore validity in a Greek cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND: Diabetes constitutes a risk factor for stroke that also aggravates stroke prognosis. Several prognostic models have been developed for the evaluation of neurologic status, severity, short-term functional outcome and mortality of stroke patients. IScore is a novel tool recently developed in order to predict mortality rates within 30 days and 1 year after ischemic stroke and diabetes is not included in the scoring scale of IScore. The aim of the present study was to evaluate and compare IScore validity in ischemic stroke patients with and without diabetes. METHODS: This prospective study included 312 consecutive Caucasian patients with type 2 diabetes and 222 Caucasian patients without diabetes admitted for ischemic stroke in a tertiary Greek hospital. Thirty-day and 1-year IScores were individually calculated for each patient and actual mortality was monitored at the same time intervals. IScore’s predictive ability and calibration was evaluated and compared for ischemic stroke patients with and without diabetes. The performance of IScore for predicting 30 and 1-year mortality between patients with and without diabetes was assessed by determining the calibration and discrimination of the score. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the discriminative ability of IScore for patients with and without diabetes, whereas the calibration of IScore was assessed by the Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of fit statistic. RESULTS: Baseline population characteristics and mortality rates did not differ significantly for both cohorts. IScore values were significantly higher for patients with diabetes at 30 days and 1 year after ischemic stroke and patients with diabetes presented more frequently with lacunar strokes. Based on ROC curves analysis IScore’s predictive ability for 30 day mortality was excellent, without statistically significant difference, for both cohorts. Predictive ability for 1 year mortality was also excellent for both groups with significantly better ability for patients with diabetes especially at high score values. Calibration of the model was good for both groups of patients. CONCLUSIONS: IScore accurately predicts mortality in acute ischemic stroke Caucasian patients with and without diabetes with higher efficacy in predicting 1 year mortality in patients with diabetes especially with high scores

Is the ozone climate penalty robust in Europe?

Ozone air pollution is identified as one of the main threats bearing upon human health and ecosystems, with 25 000 deaths in 2005 attributed to surface ozone in Europe (IIASA 2013 TSAP Report #10). In addition, there is a concern that climate change could negate ozone pollution mitigation strategies, making them insufficient over the long run and jeopardising chances to meet the long term objective set by the European Union Directive of 2008 (Directive 2008/50/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2008) (60 ppbv, daily maximum). This effect has been termed the ozone climate penalty. One way of assessing this climate penalty is by driving chemistry-transport models with future climate projections while holding the ozone precursor emissions constant (although the climate penalty may also be influenced by changes in emission of precursors). Here we present an analysis of the robustness of the climate penalty in Europe across time periods and scenarios by analysing the databases underlying 11 articles published on the topic since 2007, i.e. a total of 25 model projections. This substantial body of literature has never been explored to assess the uncertainty and robustness of the climate ozone penalty because of the use of different scenarios, time periods and ozone metrics. Despite the variability of model design and setup in this database of 25 model projection, the present meta-analysis demonstrates the significance and robustness of the impact of climate change on European surface ozone with a latitudinal gradient from a penalty bearing upon large parts of continental Europe and a benefit over the North Atlantic region of the domain. Future climate scenarios present a penalty for summertime (JJA) surface ozone by the end of the century (2071-2100) of at most 5 ppbv. Over European land surfaces, the 95% confidence interval of JJA ozone change is [0.44; 0.64] and [0.99; 1.50] ppbv for the 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 time windows, respectively

Deciphering colorectal cancer genetics through multi-omic analysis of 100,204 cases and 154,587 controls of European and east Asian ancestries

In the version of this article initially published, the author affiliations incorrectly listed “Candiolo Cancer Institute FPO-IRCCS, Candiolo (TO), Italy” as “Candiolo Cancer Institute, Candiolo, Italy.” The change has been made to the HTML and PDF versions of the article

Three Essays on Behavioural Finance in Shipping Markets

Shipping finance is a strand of literature that was mainly initiated by Costas Grammenos and its main driver was the need of shipowners and ship operators to manage the financial aspect of the sector given the volatility that it is always apparent. The research that has been conducted up to now focuses on examining aspects relevant to the assets (ships) and the freight rates (cash flow). Despite the work that has already been conducted all these years, the financial crisis of 2008 re-enforced the need to develop a better understanding of the complexities of the external and the internal drivers of the shipping industry. In the current thesis, three topics that are of prime importance to the industry have been researched in order to address certain unanswered questions. More precisely, the volatility spillovers of the freight rates, corporate governance of the shipping companies and sales and purchases of second-hand dry bulk carriers have been examined. Chapter 1 explores the determinants of investment diversification in the shipping industry, as measured by the net volatility spillover index introduced by Diebold & Yilmaz (2012) and in the shipping context by Tsouknidis (2016). Specific indicators of shipping economic activity as introduced in Papapostolou et al. (2016) are used as potential determinants of the net volatility spillover indices across the dry bulk and tanker shipping segments and sub-segments. Results reveal that certain measures of investment prospects and activity in the second-hand vessels market are positively associated with increased volatility spillovers across shipping segments. Chapter 2, reviews the role of corporate governance in maritime enterprises. While various research has been conducted on the executive teams of shipping companies and their relationship with the companies’ performance, results, however, remain inconclusive on the specific characteristics that are having a positive influence on the companies’ performance. In the current research, we have employed the largest sample that has been used up to now and we are examining the relation between the demographic characteristics of the board of directors with the financial performance of the shipping companies. Nevertheless, given the volatility that exists in the shipping market, we further examine the demographic characteristics that are particularly important when the market participants are either overly optimistic or overly pessimistic for the outlook of the market. In this chapter, a literature review of the relevant bibliography reveals the unique characteristics of the shipping industry as far as corporate practices and their outcomes are concerned. Moreover, the chapter discusses how corporate governance affects enterprises at large and why both academics and professionals have been active in the field, trying both to grasp the conundrum of corporate boards, and additionally to create ameliorating policies. Finally, exploratory research is conducted to reveal the demographic profile of the corporate boards. The revealed trends of the last 15 years provide the reader with insight of the practices that maritime enterprises have been using in order to provide better mechanisms of governance. Chapter 3, re-examines the methods for vessel valuation and the predominant factors that affect them. Given the diffusion of information that derives from recent technological advances, we further test previous models with an updated and more thorough dataset. Accordingly, evidence on the significance of the different level of information when compared to annual averages is provided. Additionally, we further enhance the existing literature by adding an extrapolating variable that accounts for the profitability of vessels. Thus, we employ a statistical technique, based on the precise age of a vessel, to capture the total profit that she will provide until she is demolished. The estimation provides results that reduce the variance between the actual transaction prices and the predicted ones when compared to benchmark models by 20%.Complete

Sentiment-augmented supply and demand equations for the dry bulk shipping market

We present, for the first time in the literature, empirical estimates of the supply and demand curves for the ocean-going dry bulk sector, using a three-stage least squares methodology. Furthermore, we augment these functions with sentiment, which appears to have a positive and significant impact on supply. This supports the view that the outlook that shipowners have about the market will undoubtedly influence their decisions regarding purchasing vessels or bringing them out of lay up. Thus, our results highlight the fact that future expectations have an impact on current pricing, albeit indirectly, through their impact on the supply side. Our results further enhance the behavioral economics literature and provide important insights for both academics and professionals

Covid-19 and the energy trade: Evidence from tanker trade routes

We employ a cointegration setup to explore route-specific off-equilibrium deviations related to Covid-19 that have affected clean (petroleum products) and dirty (crude oil) tanker freight rates, over and above the expected macroeconomic reactions. We find that the additional deviation caused by Covid-19 is route-specific. In particular, deviation caused by Covid-19 is found to be more significant for clean tankers, with an average impact of 0.15, an expected outcome given that these products are more reliant on economic developments because of their uses. The clean tanker impact is more evident in Japan-related routes, while no specific pattern can be extracted with regards to the additional off-equilibrium Covid-19 deviation for dirty tanker routes. Results suggest that time-charters and hedging against the stock markets can help ship-owners ameliorate demand-driven shocks

Commodity Prices and Dry Bulk Shipping Stock Returns

We explore the relationship between the returns of 64 dry bulk shipping company stock prices and the main 15 commodities that bulk carriers transport. Using a principal component analysis to reduce the dimensionality of the commodities dataset and a panel methodology, we find that a change in the commodity price principal component would result in a 0.6% change in the returns of the shipping stock prices. Minerals appear to have a stronger impact, as a 1% change in the minerals principal component results in a 1.1% change in the returns. This is mainly due to the fact that minerals account for larger trade volumes in the dry bulk market and they employ mostly bigger vessels, while the price of Brent oil is also an important factor affecting shipping stock prices