The impact of the WTO agricultural negotiating modalities on Southern African Development Community countries

This paper assesses the likely impact on the agricultural sector of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries of the Harbinson modalities, along with the EU and US proposals as alternative scenarios in the context of the ongoing negotiations of the WTO Agreement on Agriculture. Impacts are assessed on a number of indicators, notably government revenue, producer, consumer and total welfare measures and trade flow. Reflecting country- and commodity-specific factors, the three modalities have different impacts on the indicators. The SADC as a whole is found to lose in terms of total welfare under all three proposals. But while this loss under the Harbinson and EU proposals is due to declines in consumer surpluses and government revenues, reduced producer surplus and government revenue explain the loss in total welfare under the US proposal. Thus, the ranking of the modalities differs according to the impact indicator used, revealing important trade-offs in the choice of the modalities. An issue raised is the value of consumer gains relative to producer gains for low-income economies highly dependent on agriculture because for them effective demand for consumption itself depends on incomes generated from increased agricultural activities, which in turn requires sustained gains in producer surpluses. The paper presents a range of results and discusses the trade-offs, with the hope that SADC trade negotiators and policy makers find these to be useful as they negotiate for the final form of the modalities.International Relations/Trade,

ESTIMATION OF EXPORT DEMAND FUNCTIONS FOR U.S. WHEAT

Export demand functions for U.S. wheat were estimated for five world regions. Estimates of the effects of income, price, and nonprice variables on U.S. wheat exports were obtained using various econometric procedures. The major finding of the paper indicates that exchange rate changes have had a substantial impact on U.S. wheat exports. This result, conditioned on the aggregative nature of the study, supports the belief expressed by some researchers in recent years.Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade,

Cattle herd dynamics: An integer and stochastic model for evaluating production alternatives

Presents a cattle herd simulation model which is time dynamic, stochastic, non-optimizing & integer and permits the evaluation of herd performance under alternative production regimes; discusses the analytical background to the biological relationships represented in the model, describes detailed algorithms used in the computer simulation model, and outlines necessary steps for the application of the model

Is beta-tricalcium phosphate combined with type i collagen effective for human socket preservation prior to implant placement? A case report

The authors report the use of synthetic beta-tricalcium phosphate with type I collagen immediately after tooth extraction for simple socket preservation indicated in the pre-implant management of alveolar bone. The bone material was used without a barrier membrane and forming a mucoperiosteal flap. Clinical examination revealed solid new bone formation with no changes in vertical and horizontal dimensions 9 months after the socket preservation. Immunohistochemical analysis demonstrated presence of active osteonectine-positive cells. The new bone formed after the use of beta-tricalcium phosphate and type I collagen in the socket preservation method can allow dental implant placement and implant loading

Responsiveness of Food Aid in Cereals to Fiuctuations in Supply in Donor and Recipient Countries

This paper attempts to analyze quantitatively the link between food aid and surplus production in the maJOr food aid donor countnes. Simple regression models were estimated for wheat, coarse grams, and nee using data for 1962-82, depending on the commodity and donor. Carryover stocks and world prices proved to be significant variables in explaining the vanability of food aid flows for all three commodities. Relative to the volume of food aid in each commodity, the effects of canyover stocks were substantial for rice, moderate for wheat, and relatively small for coarse grams. The pnce effects were considerable for wheat, moderate for coarse grams, and relatively small for nee. In terms of individual food aid donors, the two variables proved to be significant m explaining food aid shipments in the case of Canada, Japan, and the USA, which have generally provided food aid much in excess of their rninimun: commitment under the Food Aid Convention (PAC). For the other two ma1or donors (Australia and the European Community), food aid shipments were closely related to minimum commitments under the PAC. This paper further analyzes the response of food aid to production fluctuations m low mcome, food deficit countries. The response has been partial, estimated to cover only about 13 percent of cereal production shortfalls

Analysis of trade flows in the international wheat market

PRISI; IFPRI

The effect of biofeedback and relaxation on premenstrual syndrome

Premenstrual Syndrome (PMS) encompasses a cluster of affective, physiological, and psychological symptoms which appear cyclically in women several days before the onset of menses. Over 150 symptoms ranging from mild to incapacitating have been associated with PMS. There is a lack of consensus regarding the treatment of PMS. Treatment modalities range from pharmacological and dietary to behavioral. This proposal is concerned with the behavioral modalities, namely, biofeedback and relaxation. Studies analyzing the application of biofeedback to PMS are sparse. Biofeedback was first applied to dysmenorrhea or painful menstruation. Only two studies have applied biofeedback to PMS. One of these studies (Dewitt, 1981) applied biofeedback to PMS as well as dysmenorrhea. The other study (Mathew et al., 1979) applied temperature biofeedback to PMS and concluded that temperature biofeedback appears to be valuable in treating PMS symptoms. However, other generalized, nonspecific factors, such as self awareness and relaxation, appear to play a major role in this type of treatment (Mathew et al., 1979). The present study evaluated the combination of biofeedback as effective agents in reducing premenstrual distress. Twenty-one women suffering from premenstrual distress were randomly assigned to two groups, (1) attention-control and (2) treatment. The attention-control group received one session of biofeedback and relaxation. The treatment group received 12 sessions of biofeedback and relaxation training. The goal of the treatment program was to target autonomic nervous system activity and to reduce sympathetic tone. Premenstrual distress levels were measured by the Moose Menstrual Distress Questionnaire (MDQ) and The Profile of Mood States Rating Scale (POMS). Group means were analyzed for differences. The analysis of co-variance revealed no significant treatment effect on the MDQ; however, a significant treatment effect was found on the POMS. It was concluded that, although biofeedback and relaxation were not helpful in reducing PMS symptoms as measured by the MDQ, they were helpful in improving the overall mood or well being of the subjects during the PMS week. Recommendations for future research included a larger n, more dependent measures, the use of subjects with very similar symptom profiles, and the combination of biofeedback and relaxation with other treatments, such as exercise and diet

Welfare implications of grain price stabilization: some empirical evidence for the United States.

PRISI; IFPRI