Realising long-term transitions towards low carbon societies : impulses from the 8th annual meeting of the International Research Network for Low Carbon Societies

In spite of current multiple political crises, global warming will remain a prime issue on the global agenda. The adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015 and its quick ratification in 2016 have created a strong momentum for worldwide action against climate change. As global greenhouse gas emissions must decline towards levels close to zero by the middle of the century, the rapid decarbonisation of energy systems is high on the agenda of most countries around the globe. This publication delivers insights into cutting edge research on the necessary transitions towards low carbon societies and by this aims to contribute to international as well as national policymaking. The topics covered in more than 20 concise original articles are among the most important issues for progressing solutions for climate change and sustainable development. The papers discuss recent findings and case studies in the following subject areas: Governance of the necessary long-term transitions in the context of potential known and unknown adverse developments; Policy instruments and strategies that allow for financing the transition to low carbon economies and, at the same time, respond to today's economic and social challenges; Integrated strategies for three of the most important arenas of global decarbonisation: Cities, as much of the change and necessary investment for low carbon societies must take place, be planned, be financed and be built in cities; industry, particularly the energy-intensive processing industries, which are at the core of society's metabolism and are responsible for a large and growing share of global emissions and science as a whole, which must become more solutions-oriented because the transitions needed will rely heavily on research providing solutions for technological as well as societal problems. As a contribution to these great challenges and at the request of the G7 Environment Ministers, the Low Carbon Society Research Network (LCS-RNet) acts as a forum aimed at fostering research and policymaking to jointly achieve decarbonised energy systems in countries around the world. It convenes leading scientists, practitioners and policymakers and aims at supporting governments in proceeding jointly towards the design and implementation of climate-friendly low carbon societies

Uncertainty management and the dynamic adjustment of deep decarbonization pathways

Contrary to "static" pathways that are defined once for all, this article deals with the need for policy makers to adopt a dynamic adaptive policy pathway for managing decarbonization over the period of implementation. When choosing a pathway as the most desirable option, it is important to keep in mind that each decarbonization option relies on the implementation of specific policies and instruments. Given structural, effectiveness, and timing uncertainties specific to each policy option, they may fail in delivering the expected outcomes in time. The possibility of diverging from an initial decarbonization trajectory to another one without incurring excessive costs should therefore be a strategic element in the design of an appropriate decarbonization strategy. The article relies on initial experiences in France and Germany on decarbonization planning and implementation to define elements for managing dynamic adjustment issues. Such an adaptive pathway strategy should combine long-lived incentives, like a pre-announced escalating carbon price, to form consistent expectations, as well as adaptive policies to improve overall robustness and resilience. We sketch key elements of a monitoring process based on an ex ante definition of leading indicators that should be assessed regularly and combined with signposts and trigger values at the subsector level

COP 21 can become a turning point towards sustainable energy systems : paper on behalf of the secretariat of the Club of Rome preparing for COP 21

Will climate change stay below the 2 degree target in the 21st century on the basis of the COP 21 results? Looking into challenges and opportunities, this paper answers: To stay below the global 2dt is neither a real choice for the world society nor for businesses and civil societies in specific countries. It is a global guideline, scientifically developed for global negotiations, which should be broken down to national interests and actors. Key questions concerning the energy sector from the perspective of national interests are how to create and sustain a momentum for the inevitable energy transition, how to encourage disruptive innovations, avoid lock in effects, enable rapid deployment of energy efficiency and renewable energies etc. Or in other words: how to get to a competitive, economically benign, inclusive, low carbon and risk minimising energy system. With this background the paper argues that "burden sharing" is a misleading perception of strong climate mitigation strategies. It is more realistic to talk about "benefit sharing", using the monetary benefits and co-benefits of climate mitigation (e.g. energy cost savings, revenues from CO2-tax or emission trading systems) to help vulnerable national and international actors to adapt to the unavoidable climate risks. It has to be demonstrated on country level that the technologies and policy mix of strong climate mitigation and risk-minimising actions are indeed "benefit sharing" strategies which should be chosen anyhow, even if there was no climate change. For China and Germany this paper includes basic findings supporting this view

COP 21 can become a turning point towards sustainable energy systems: paper on behalf of the secretariat of the Club of Rome preparing for COP 21

Will climate change stay below the 2 degree target in the 21st century on the basis of the COP 21 results? Looking into challenges and opportunities, this paper answers: To stay below the global 2dt is neither a real choice for the world society nor for businesses and civil societies in specific countries. It is a global guideline, scientifically developed for global negotiations, which should be broken down to national interests and actors. Key questions concerning the energy sector from the perspective of national interests are how to create and sustain a momentum for the inevitable energy transition, how to encourage disruptive innovations, avoid lock in effects, enable rapid deployment of energy efficiency and renewable energies etc. Or in other words: how to get to a competitive, economically benign, inclusive, low carbon and risk minimising energy system. With this background the paper argues that "burden sharing" is a misleading perception of strong climate mitigation strategies. It is more realistic to talk about "benefit sharing", using the monetary benefits and co-benefits of climate mitigation (e.g. energy cost savings, revenues from CO2-tax or emission trading systems) to help vulnerable national and international actors to adapt to the unavoidable climate risks. It has to be demonstrated on country level that the technologies and policy mix of strong climate mitigation and risk-minimising actions are indeed "benefit sharing" strategies which should be chosen anyhow, even if there was no climate change. For China and Germany this paper includes basic findings supporting this view

Sustainable energy strategy for Iran

The book shows that the implementation of a sustainable energy strategy in Iran provides the opportunity for further economic and social development. In this context, the aim of the book is to provide some of the analyses needed to rethink the country’s energy strategy and to grasp the chances. The authors hope to make a contribution to the emerging and rapidly growing discussion on better energy alternatives and the respective opportunities for investment, innovation and modernization. The work presented in the book should provide ideas for such opportunities and create a vision of how this could contribute towards developing a more sustainable, efficient and prosperous future energy system for Iran. The book is based on long-term academic cooperation between Iranian researchers from several universities and the Iranian Energy Association and German researchers from the Wuppertal Institute, Büro Ö-quadrat and the University of Osnabrück. The book in hand is an important result of the collaboration. So its publication lends itself to taking stock of these twelve years of continued cooperation

Ischemic Duodenal Ulceration after Transarterial Chemoembolization for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Case Report

Drug-eluting bead transarterial chemoembolization (DEB-TACE) is a well-established, minimally invasive interventional treatment for nonresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Generally, TACE is regarded as safe and effective with a low complication rate. However, remote gastrointestinal ischemia due to the carryover of embolic material into visceral arteries is a rare but serious complication of TACE. In this report, we present a case of duodenal ulceration with contained perforation and severe necrotizing pancreatitis after TACE in a patient with nonresectable HCC and underlying hepatitis C virus associated with Child-Pugh stage B liver cirrhosis. This patient showed, for the first time, complete endoscopic and clinical recovery within 2 months of conservative treatment. Considering the high mortality rate from surgical intervention in all previously reported patients, the significant recovery potential demonstrated by our case suggests conservative treatment with antibiotics and parenteral nutrition combined with close clinical, radiological, and endoscopic monitoring should be considered in all clinically stable patients without signs of peritonism or septic sequelae

State of the low-carbon energy union : assessing the EU's progress towards its 2030 and 2050 climate objectives

Rather than examining aggregate emissions trends, this study delves deep into the dynamics affecting each sector of the EU energy system. It examines the structural changes taking place in power production, transport, buildings and industry, and benchmarks these with the changes required to reach the 2030 and 2050 targets. In so doing it aims to influence both the ambition and direction of future policy decisions, both at Member State and EU level. In order to assess the adequacy of the EU and its Member States policies with the 2030 and 2050 decarbonisation objectives, this study goes beyond the aggregate GHG emissions or energy use figures and analyse the underlying drivers of emission changes, following a sectoral approach (power generation, buildings, industry, and transport). Historical trends of emission drivers are compared with the required long-term deep decarbonisation pathways, which provide sectoral "benchmarks" or "corridors" against which to analyse the rate and direction of historical change for each Member State and the EU in aggregate. This approach allows the identification of the necessary structural changes in the energy system and policy interventions to reach deep decarbonisation, and therefore the comparison with the current policy programs at European and Member State level

Current state and challenges for dynamic metabolic modeling

While the stoichiometry of metabolism is probably the best studied cellular level, the dynamics in metabolism can still not be well described, predicted and, thus, engineered. Unknowns in the metabolic flux behavior arise from kinetic interactions, especially allosteric control mechanisms. While the stoichiometry of enzymes is preserved in vitro, their activity and kinetic behavior differs from the in vivo situation. Next to this challenge, it is infeasible to test the interaction of each enzyme with each intracellular metabolite in vitro exhaustively. As a consequence, the whole interacting metabolome has to be studied in vivo to identify the relevant enzymes properties. In this review we discuss current approaches for in vivo perturbation experiments, that is, stimulus response experiments using different setups and quantitative analytical approaches, including dynamic carbon tracing. Next to reliable and informative data, advanced modeling approaches and computational tools are required to identify kinetic mechanisms and their parameters.The authors EV, AT, KN, IR, MO, DM and AW are part of the ERA-IB funded consortium DYNAMICS (ERA-IB-14-081, NWO 053.80.724)

The potential for energy efficiency in the EU member states : a comparison of studies

In October 2014, the European Council agreed on a target of improving overall energy efficiency by at least 27 per cent by 2030. According to the European Council's conclusions, this target should not be translated into nationally binding targets. Nevertheless individual Member States are free to set higher national objectives if desired. However, it is difficult to assess the degree of ambition of a national target because so far not much light has been shed upon the exact size of the untapped efficiency potentials. This paper provides an in-depth analysis and comparison of existing studies on energy efficiency potentials in the European Union's (EU) Member States by 2030. It includes a structured overview of the results, information on the quality of the available data and suggestions for improvement. The review shows that comprehensive studies on national energy efficiency potentials are rare and hardly comparable. The existing studies agree on the existence of significant potentials for energy efficiency. Their outcomes, however, vary significantly in terms of national levels. Assuming low policy intensity, energy savings between 10 and 28 per cent could be realised by 2030 compared to a baseline development, in the case of high policy intensity 7-44 per cent. Technical energy efficiency potentials in the different EU Member States are estimated at 14-52 per cent. On average, energy savings of 27 per cent by 2030 appear to be feasible with significant policy effort. We conclude that the deviation in Member States' energy efficiency potentials resulting from different studies represents an indication of the so far poor quality of underlying data. In order to allow for a concretisation of efficiency potential estimates, the comparability and detail of information sources should be improved