Mapping Weather, Water, Ice and Climate Knowledge & Information Needs for Maritime Activities in the Arctic. Survey Report

Recently, there has been wide agreement that WWIC information services for polar areas require further development in line with end-users needs (Dawson et al., 2017; Lamers, Duske, et al., 2018). Earlier studies found that forecasters and service developers have little insight into how their services are actually used, where, and in what contexts (Jeuring, Knol, & Sivle, forthcoming). To tailor to specific user needs for Weather, Water, Ice and Climate (WWIC) information services in the maritime Arctic, a more detailed understanding is needed about the situated context of maritime activities, where they are undertaken, and which types of WWIC information are used, throughout planning and operational phases and among various types of end-users. In order to elicit such insights, from January 2019 until May 2019, the SALIENSEAS project launched an online participatory mapping survey, targeted at maritime users around Greenland and Svalbard. Using participatory mapping made it possible to embed the survey questions in an intuitive, activity-oriented perspective, and to put the user experience at the center of the study. Hereby, the survey has delivered situated spatial information about the use of WWIC information for maritime planning and operations, and it provided in-depth insights in the impact of WWIC conditions on maritime activities. The report provides an overview of key characteristics of respondents (n = 22) and their maritime activities in Arctic waters (Section 3.1). Key topics enquired via the mapping interface included 1. Voyage planning; 2. Tasks and activities sensitive to adverse WWIC conditions; and 3. Information (in)accuracy. Additionally, several activity-based narratives (Section 3.2), based on the drawings and responses from survey participants from different maritime sectors, provide a deeper insight into the connections between planning and execution of specific maritime activities, the impact of WWIC conditions and the use of WWIC information

Arctic shipping trends during hazardous weather and sea-ice conditions and the Polar Code’s effectiveness

The Arctic’s extreme environmental conditions and remoteness make it a complex and dynamic environment for maritime operators. We find that Arctic shipping has grown by 7% per year over the past decade, despite the hazardous weather and sea-ice conditions that pose risks to vessels operating in the region. As a result of a strong increase in winter sailing, the time ships operate in these extreme conditions has even tripled. To mitigate maritime risks, the Polar Code has been introduced. Among other things, it regulates Arctic shipping by specifying hazardous conditions with a sea-ice classification scheme and design temperature threshold. However, we argue that the Polar Code needs refinement through the integration of maritime warning systems and a broader description of hazardous conditions. This is supported by an analysis of shipping activity patterns in severe sea-spray icing conditions and a discussion of a recent sea-ice induced incident along the Northern Sea Route

Barents Sea Drill cuttings research initiative (BARCUT)-project - End report

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Commentary 3 to the manifesto for the marine social sciences: unfolding Blue Growth

A marine social science manifesto is inherently an anticipatory exercise; it looks forward to the ocean and coastal challenges that societies are facing, with which marine social scientists are responsible to engage. The concept of Blue Growth that is mentioned in the manifesto (MMSS 1.1.3) and the related Blue Economy concept are also inherently anticipatory; they deal with a desired future for oceans and coasts, which are most explicitly inscribed in national and international ocean strategies (for example, European Commission 2017; FAO 2017). Generally, Blue Growth is a catchphrase that stands for the anticipated sustainable exploitation of ocean and coastal spaces and resources to support economic growth, thereby taking into account ecosystems, biodiversity, and social issues. Obviously, this is an idealized version of growth and sustainability

Toward valuable weather and sea-ice services for the marine Arctic : exploring user-producer interfaces of the Norwegian Meteorological Institute

Recognition is growing that valuable weather, water, ice and climate (WWIC) services for marine, Arctic environments can only be produced in close dialogue with its actual users. This denotes an acknowledgement that knowing how users incorporate WWIC information in their activities should be considered throughout the information value chain. Notions like co-production and user engagement are current terms to grapple with user needs, but little is known about how such concepts are operationalized in the practical context of tasks and responsibilities of National Meteorological and Hydrometeorological Services (NMHS). Based on a series of in-depth, qualitative interviews with a diversity of personnel from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, we describe the shifting dynamics of interactions between WWIC information providers and maritime stakeholders operating in Arctic environments. Three key challenges are discussed, pertaining to both day-to-day and strategic interactions: (1) the importance of knowing how information is used, (2) the increasing automation of meteorological practices and the growing need for user observations, and (3) the need for bridging research-tooperations gaps. We embed these findings in a discussion on how user-producer interfaces are shaped and transforming through an ongoing negotiation of expertise, changing the roles and responsibilities within particular constellations of co-producing WWIC information services

Sea ice variability and maritime activity around Svalbard in the period 2012–2019

Climate change is strongly impacting the Arctic environment, leading to rapid sea ice loss. In some sectors, the retreating ice edge is perceived as an opportunity to expand and develop economic activities. Previous studies show this development in the Canadian and Russian Arctic. This paper examines mobility patterns of cruise ships and fishing vessels around Svalbard, a major hotspot of maritime activity and retreating sea ice cover, in relation to sea ice variability between August 2012 and September 2019. The results show a slight overall increase in fisheries and cruise activity, as well as remarkable trends of stretching operational seasons and expanding navigational areas in these sectors. Overall increasing activity and changing mobility patterns provoke a discussion about the implications for safe navigation and sustainable management, thus raising issues of high pan-Arctic relevance

Government-industry dynamics in the development of offshore waste management in Norway: from prescriptive to risk-based regulation

Petroleum activities are associated with high risks. In the 1980s, concerns arose about the environmental impacts of ‘normal’ petroleum activity. Regular operations go hand-in-hand with emissions to air and discharges to sea. Both have been subject to extensive regulation since the 1990s. This paper analyzes the design and implementation of the Norwegian system that regulates operational discharges to the marine environment. It analyzes the changing relationships among science, politics and the industry and describes how the turn from a prescriptive to a predominantly performance-based approach was fundamental in making progress toward less polluting practices. The article describes how risk regulation was institutionalized and highlights the benefits of involving the industry in the pursuit of environmental protection. It also cautions against a lax attitude toward control and oversight, as complexification of risk objects and the increase of institutional risks can lead to mismatches in risk management

Sea ice variability and maritime activity around Svalbard in the period 2012-2019

Climate change is strongly impacting the Arctic environment, leading to rapid sea ice loss. In some sectors, the retreating ice edge is perceived as an opportunity to expand and develop economic activities. Previous studies show this development in the Canadian and Russian Arctic. This paper examines mobility patterns of cruise ships and fishing vessels around Svalbard, a major hotspot of maritime activity and retreating sea ice cover, in relation to sea ice variability between August 2012 and September 2019. The results show a slight overall increase in fisheries and cruise activity, as well as remarkable trends of stretching operational seasons and expanding navigational areas in these sectors. Overall increasing activity and changing mobility patterns provoke a discussion about the implications for safe navigation and sustainable management, thus raising issues of high pan-Arctic relevance

Coproducing Sea Ice Predictions with Stakeholders Using Simulation

Forecasts of sea ice evolution in the Arctic region for several months ahead can be of considerable socio-economic value for a diverse range of marine sectors and for local community supply logistics. However, subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts represent a significant technical challenge, and translating user needs into scientifically manageable procedures and robust user confidence requires collaboration among a range of stakeholders. We developed and tested a novel, transdisciplinary coproduction approach that combined socioeconomic scenarios and participatory, research-driven simulation gaming to test a new S2S sea ice forecast system with experienced mariners in the cruise tourism sector. Our custom-developed computerized simulation game known as “ICEWISE” integrated sea ice parameters, forecast technology, and human factors as a participatory environment for stakeholder engagement. We explored the value of applications-relevant S2S sea ice prediction and linked uncertainty information. Results suggest that the usefulness of S2S services is currently most evident in schedule-dependent sectors but is expected to increase as a result of anticipated changes in the physical environment and continued growth in Arctic operations. Reliable communication of uncertainty information in sea ice forecasts must be demonstrated and trialed before users gain confidence in emerging services and technologies. Mariners’ own intuition, experience, and familiarity with forecast service provider reputation impact the extent to which sea ice information may reduce uncertainties and risks for Arctic mariners. Our insights into the performance of the com- bined foresight/simulation coproduction model in brokering knowledge across a range of domains demonstrates promise. We conclude with an overview of the potential contributions from S2S sea ice predictions and from experiential coproduction models to the development of decision-driven and science-informed climate services

Barents Sea Drill cuttings research initiative (BARCUT)-project - End report

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