A Global Economics Model

There are appropriate occasions for large detailed models and for small simple models. In the context of the analysis of the world economy over long stretches of time, a good case can be made for the building of a small model -- one that captures the essence of some aspect of growth and general economic environment that can serve a wide variety of problems. Many of these problems are going to be handled by scholars who are not economists -- therefore, it is advantageous to construct a model that is not data-intensive, that is easy to manage, and easy to apply to a limited range of issues. It is in response to the need for a model that meets such constraints that I have put together the simple system in this paper. There is much to be said in favor of learning to walk before learning to run. It is in this spirit that the present system is tentatively put forward. The present study is only a first attempt. Many of the data and specifications need further work in a number of directions. It is hoped that it will generate discussion and provide a framework for moving to larger scale global systems that capture more of the detailed inter-relationships of the world economy. It is also hoped that the discussion can lead to suggestions for better data compilation and processing

Jury deliberation: An observation study.

In this article, the way that the jury works is considered from a group-analytic perspective. Observational fieldwork of simulated jury deliberations is presented. The data was gathered from a joint funded Home Office and Law Commission project at the Socio- Legal Studies Centre, Oxford in 1995. Inferences are drawn from the observations and the unconscious group processes are considered. The efficacy of the jury process is discussed

A rare presentation of the Klinefelter's syndrome

A 16 years old boy with Chronic Renal Failure (CRF) was not suspected of having Klinefelter's syndrome until he complained of painful gynecomastia. He was under haemodialysis for 2 years. At first, he was in an approximately full pubertal development (P5, G5), but he had a small and a firm testis (length 2.2cm) and some degree of facial male pattern hair. He also had a decreased upper to lower body segment ratio and despite having chronic renal failure, he was taller than his parents and siblings. His laboratory tests showed high levels of FSH and normal levels of LH and testosterone. With regards to all these findings, we suspected that there might be an occult Klinefelter's syndrome. So, we made his karyotype that showed a 47XXY pattern. Because there are only a few number of cases that have occult Klinefelter's syndrome in the basis of chronic renal failure, we decided to report this case

On the distribution of bids for construction contract auctions

The statistical distribution representing bid values constitutes an essential part of many auction models and has involved a wide range of assumptions, including the Uniform, Normal, Lognormal and Weibull densities. From a modelling point of view, its goodness is defined by how well it enables the probability of a particular bid value to be estimated – a past bid for ex-post analysis and a future bid for ex-ante (forecasting) analysis. However, there is no agreement to date of what is the most appropriate form and empirical work is sparse. Twelve extant construction datasets from four continents over different time periods are analysed in this paper for their fit to a variety of candidate statistical distributions assuming homogeneity of bidders (ID not known). The results show there is no one single fit-all distribution, but that the 3p Log-Normal, Fréchet/2p Log-Normal, Normal, Gamma and Gumbel generally rank the best ex-post, and the 2p Log-Normal, Normal, Gamma and Gumbel the best ex-ante – with ex-ante having around three to four times worse fit than ex-post. Final comments focus on the results relating to the third and fourth standardised moments of the bids and a post-hoc rationalisation of the empirical outcome of the analysis

Nonconstant electronic density of states tunneling inversion for A15 superconductors: Nb3Sn

We re-examine the tunneling data on A15 superconductors by performing a generalized McMillan-Rowell tunneling inversion that incorporates a nonconstant electronic density of states obtained from band-structure calculations. For Nb3Sn, we find that the fit to the experimental data can be slightly improved by taking into account the sharp structure in the density of states, but it is likely that such an analysis alone is not enough to completely explain the superconducting tunneling characteristics of this material. Nevertheless, the extracted Eliashberg function displays a number of features expected to be present for the highest quality Nb3Sn samples.Comment: 11 pages, 11 figure

Training specialists to write appropriate reply letters to general practitioners about patients with medically unexplained physical symptoms; A cluster-randomized trial.

Objective: To evaluate effects of a communication training for specialists on the quality of their reply letters to general practitioners (GPs) about patients with medically unexplained physical symptoms (MUPS). Methods: Before randomization, specialists included ≤3 MUPS patients in a multi-center cluster-randomized trial. In 14 h of MUPS-specific communication training, 2.5 h focused on reply letters. Letters were discussed with regard to reporting and answering GPs' referral questions and patients' questions, and to reporting findings, explaining MUPS with perpetuating factors and giving advice. After the training, all doctors again included ≤3 MUPS patients. Reply letters to GPs were assessed for quality and blindly rated on a digital scale. Results: We recruited 478 MUPS patients and 123 specialists; 80% of the doctors wrote ≥1 reply letters, 285 letters were assessed. Trained doctors reported (61% versus 37%, OR=2.55, F(1281)=6.60, pgroup*time=.01) and answered (63% versus 33%, OR=3.31, F(1281)=5.36, pgroup*time=.02) patients' questions more frequently than untrained doctors. Conclusion: Training improves reply letters with regard to patients' questions, but not with regard to the following: GPs' referral questions, somatic findings, additional testing, explaining, and advice. Practice implications: Training specialists to write appropriate reply letters needs more focus on explanation and advice

The balance of power: accretion and feedback in stellar mass black holes

In this review we discuss the population of stellar-mass black holes in our galaxy and beyond, which are the extreme endpoints of massive star evolution. In particular we focus on how we can attempt to balance the available accretion energy with feedback to the environment via radiation, jets and winds, considering also possible contributions to the energy balance from black hole spin and advection. We review quantitatively the methods which are used to estimate these quantities, regardless of the details of the astrophysics close to the black hole. Once these methods have been outlined, we work through an outburst of a black hole X-ray binary system, estimating the flow of mass and energy through the different accretion rates and states. While we focus on feedback from stellar mass black holes in X-ray binary systems, we also consider the applicability of what we have learned to supermassive black holes in active galactic nuclei. As an important control sample we also review the coupling between accretion and feedback in neutron stars, and show that it is very similar to that observed in black holes, which strongly constrains how much of the astrophysics of feedback can be unique to black holes.Comment: To be published in Haardt et al. Astrophysical Black Holes. Lecture Notes in Physics. Springer 201

A Search for Selectrons and Squarks at HERA

Data from electron-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 300 GeV are used for a search for selectrons and squarks within the framework of the minimal supersymmetric model. The decays of selectrons and squarks into the lightest supersymmetric particle lead to final states with an electron and hadrons accompanied by large missing energy and transverse momentum. No signal is found and new bounds on the existence of these particles are derived. At 95% confidence level the excluded region extends to 65 GeV for selectron and squark masses, and to 40 GeV for the mass of the lightest supersymmetric particle.Comment: 13 pages, latex, 6 Figure