9 research outputs found

    Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

    Get PDF
    Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

    A velocity map imaging apparatus for gas phase studies at FERMI@Elettra

    No full text
    22The design and evaluation of a velocity map imaging spectrometer specifically optimised for experiments at the FERMI free electron laser source are described. Optimisation of the set-up for the detection of high energy electrons (experimentally calibrated up to 45 eV), reduction of scattered light and characterisation of the pulsed gas source are outlined. The instrument has been tested using synchrotron light at the GasPhase beamline at Elettra, the Italian synchrotron source, and the results are presented. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.nonenoneP. O'Keeffe;V. Feyer;P. Bolognesi;M. Coreno;C. Callegari;G. Cautero;A. Moise;K. Prince;R. Richter;R. Sergo;M. Alagia;M. D. Simone;A. Kivimäki;M. Devetta;T. Mazza;P. Piseri;V. Lyamayev;R. Katzy;F. Stienkemeier;Y. Ovcharenko;T. Möller;L. AvaldiP., O'Keeffe; V., Feyer; P., Bolognesi; M., Coreno; C., Callegari; Cautero, Giuseppe; A., Moise; K., Prince; R., Richter; R., Sergo; M., Alagia; M. D., Simone; A., Kivimäki; M., Devetta; T., Mazza; P., Piseri; V., Lyamayev; R., Katzy; F., Stienkemeier; Y., Ovcharenko; T., Möller; L., Avald

    A modular end-station for atomic, molecular, and cluster science at the low density matter beamline of FERMI@Elettra

    No full text
    The low density matter end-station at the new seeded free electron laser FERMI@Elettra is a versatile instrument for the study of atoms, molecules and clusters by means of electron and ion spectroscopies. Beams of atoms, molecules and helium droplets as well as clusters of atoms, molecules and metals can be produced by three different pulsed valves. The atomic and molecular beams may be seeded, and the clusters and droplets may be pure, or doped with other atoms and molecules. The electrons and ions produced by the ionization and fragmentation of the samples by the intense light of FERMI can be analysed by the available spectrometers, to give mass spectra and energy as well as angular distributions of charged particles. The design of the detector allows simultaneous detection of electrons and ions using velocity map imaging and time-of-flight techniques respectively. The instruments have a high energy / mass resolution and large solid-angle collection efficiency. We describe the current status of the apparatus and illustrate the potential for future experiments

    Identification of the BCAR1-CFDP1-TMEM170A Locus as a Determinant of Carotid Intima-Media Thickness and Coronary Artery Disease Risk.

    No full text
    BACKGROUND: Carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) is a widely accepted marker of subclinical atherosclerosis. To date, large-scale investigations of genetic determinants of cIMT are sparse.METHODS AND RESULTS: In order to identify cIMT-associated genes and genetic variants, a discovery analysis using the Illumina 200K CardioMetabochip was conducted in 3,430 subjects with detailed ultrasonographic determinations of cIMT from the IMPROVE study. Segment-specific IMT measurements of common carotid (CC), bifurcation, and internal carotid arteries, and composite IMT variables considering the whole carotid tree (IMT(mean), IMT(max), and IMT(mean-max)), were analysed. A replication stage investigating 42 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for association with CC-IMT was undertaken in five independent European cohorts (total n=11,590). A locus on chromosome 16 (lead SNP rs4888378, intronic in CFDP1) was associated with cIMT at significance levels passing multiple-testing correction at both stages (array-wide significant discovery P=6.75x10(-7) for IMT(max); replication P=7.24x10(-6) for CC-IMT; adjustments for sex, age and population substructure where applicable; minor allele frequency 0.43 and 0.41, respectively). The protective minor allele was associated with lower carotid plaque score in a replication cohort (P=0.04, n=2120), and lower coronary artery disease (CAD) risk in two case-control studies of subjects with European ancestry (odds ratio [95%CI] 0.83 [0.77-0.90], P=6.53x10(-6); n=13,591, and 0.95 [0.92-0.98], P=1.83x10(-4), n=82,297, respectively). Queries of human biobank datasets (n=126-138) revealed associations of rs4888378 with nearby gene expression in vascular tissues.CONCLUSIONS: This study identified rs4888378 in the BCAR1-CFDP1-TMEM170A locus as a novel genetic determinant of cIMT and CAD risk in individuals of European descent

    Triglyceride-mediated pathways and coronary disease: collaborative analysis of 101 studies.

    No full text
    BACKGROUND: Whether triglyceride-mediated pathways are causally relevant to coronary heart disease is uncertain. We studied a genetic variant that regulates triglyceride concentration to help judge likelihood of causality. METHODS: We assessed the -1131T>C (rs662799) promoter polymorphism of the apolipoprotein A5 (APOA5) gene in relation to triglyceride concentration, several other risk factors, and risk of coronary heart disease. We compared disease risk for genetically-raised triglyceride concentration (20,842 patients with coronary heart disease, 35,206 controls) with that recorded for equivalent differences in circulating triglyceride concentration in prospective studies (302 430 participants with no history of cardiovascular disease; 12,785 incident cases of coronary heart disease during 2.79 million person-years at risk). We analysed -1131T>C in 1795 people without a history of cardiovascular disease who had information about lipoprotein concentration and diameter obtained by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. FINDINGS: The minor allele frequency of -1131T>C was 8% (95% CI 7-9). -1131T>C was not significantly associated with several non-lipid risk factors or LDL cholesterol, and it was modestly associated with lower HDL cholesterol (mean difference per C allele 3.5% [95% CI 2.6-4.6]; 0.053 mmol/L [0.039-0.068]), lower apolipoprotein AI (1.3% [0.3-2.3]; 0.023 g/L [0.005-0.041]), and higher apolipoprotein B (3.2% [1.3-5.1]; 0.027 g/L [0.011-0.043]). By contrast, for every C allele inherited, mean triglyceride concentration was 16.0% (95% CI 12.9-18.7), or 0.25 mmol/L (0.20-0.29), higher (p=4.4x10(-24)). The odds ratio for coronary heart disease was 1.18 (95% CI 1.11-1.26; p=2.6x10(-7)) per C allele, which was concordant with the hazard ratio of 1.10 (95% CI 1.08-1.12) per 16% higher triglyceride concentration recorded in prospective studies. -1131T>C was significantly associated with higher VLDL particle concentration (mean difference per C allele 12.2 nmol/L [95% CI 7.7-16.7]; p=9.3x10(-8)) and smaller HDL particle size (0.14 nm [0.08-0.20]; p=7.0x10(-5)), factors that could mediate the effects of triglyceride. INTERPRETATION: These data are consistent with a causal association between triglyceride-mediated pathways and coronary heart disease
    corecore