Moral hazard and bail-out in fiscal federations: evidence for the German Länder

We identify investor moral hazard in the German fiscal federation. Our identification strategy is based on a variable, which was used by the German Federal Constitutional Court as an indicator to determine eligibility of two German states (Länder) to a bail-out, the interest payments-to-revenue ratio. While risk premia measured in the German sub-national bond market react significantly to the relative debt level of a state (Land), we also find that a larger interest payments-to-revenue ratio counter-intuitively lowers risk premia significantly. Furthermore, with increasing values the risk premia decrease more strongly. This is evidence of investor moral hazard, because a larger indicator value increases the likelihood of receiving a bail-out payment. Quantitatively, the effects are, however, quite small. Our findings are robust to a variety of sample changes. In addition, we provide a case study of the recent Federal Constitutional Court ruling on the Land Berlin, which had filed for additional federal funds. The negative response of the court did not lead to a change in financial markets' bail-out expectations. In sum, our results indicate significant investor moral hazard in the sub-national German bond market. --moral hazard,bail-out,sovereign bond spreads,fiscal federalism,Germany

The macroeconomic effects of exogenous fiscal policy shocks in Germany: a disaggregated SVAR analysis

We investigate the short-term effects of fiscal policy shocks on the German economy following the SVAR approach by Blanchard and Perotti (2002). We find that direct government expenditure shocks increase output and private consumption on impact with low statistical significance, while they decrease private investment, though insignificantly. For the sub-category government investment – in contrast to government consumption – a positive output effect is found, which is statistically significant until 12 quarters ahead. Allowing for anticipation effects of fiscal policy does not change the sign of the positive consumption response. Anticipated expenditure shocks have significant effects on output when the shock is realized, but not in the period of anticipation. In sum, effects of expenditure shocks are only short-lived. Government net revenue shocks do not affect output with statistical significance. However, when splitting up this aggregate, direct taxes lower output significantly, while small indirect tax revenue shocks have little effects. Compensation of public employees is equally not effective in stimulating the economy. --Fiscal policy,government spending,net revenue,policy anticipation,structural vector autoregression

Natural range expansion and human-assisted introduction leave different genetic signatures in a hermaphroditic freshwater snail

Colonization events like range expansion or biological invasions can be associated with population bottlenecks. Small population size may lead to loss of genetic diversity due to random genetic drift, to loss of heterozygosity due to increased inbreeding and should leave a signature on the genetic polymorphism and genetic structure of populations. The mating system might additionally influence the outcome of such a process. Here, we compare invasive and native populations of the hermaphroditic freshwater snail Lymnaea stagnalis. In the native range we included populations that were ice-free during the last glaciation period and populations that were glaciated and are located at the edge of the species' native distribution range. The microsatellite data show substantial loss of genetic variation in the introduced range and no signs of high propagule pressure or admixture. The expressed polymorphism was so low that mating system analysis was not possible. In the native region, all populations display strong levels of differentiation (global F ST: 0.341) independent of colonization history and exhibit no significant pattern of inbreeding. However, the populations in more recently colonized habitats show diminished genetic diversity. Overall, these results illustrate how dramatic the reduction in genetic diversity can be for hermaphroditic animals and that gene flow in the native range can be surprisingly low despite short distance

Genetic Population Structure of the Ground Beetle, Pterostichus oblongopunctatus, Inhabiting a Fragmented and Polluted Landscape: Evidence for Sex-Biased Dispersal

Ground beetles are an integral and functionally important part of many terrestrial ecosystems. Habitat change often influences population genetic structure of carabid beetles. In this study, genetic variation, population differentiation, and sex-specific dispersal patterns were studied in the forest ground beetle, Pterostichus oblongopunctatus F. (Coleoptera: Carabidae), in a fragmented and metal-polluted landscape to assess the consequences of human-induced changes on the population genetic structure. Genotypic variation at five microsatellite loci was screened in 309 beetles from 21 sample locations around zinc-and-lead smelter in southern Poland. Low levels of genetic differentiation among sampling sites were observed, suggesting high gene flow among populations. A negative correlation was found between levels of genetic differentiation and habitat patch size. No significant effects of metal pollution, in terms of genetic bottlenecks and genetic differentiation, were observed. Analyses revealed weak genetic clustering that is loosely tied to the geographic position of the sampled populations. Several tests of sex-biased dispersal were conducted. Most of them indicated male-biased dispersal. Differing levels of dispersal between females and males resulted in sex-specific spatial genetic patterns. Genetic differentiation was significantly correlated with geographical distance for males, but not for females, who were more diverged locally. Also, the effect of habitat patch size was sex-dependent, supporting the finding of different dispersal patterns between the sexes. This study demonstrated the application of microsatellite markers to answer questions regarding complex interactions between population structure and physical properties of the landscape. In the study system, migration appears to be sufficient to override potential effects of environmental pollution as well as habitat fragmentation. This investigation of population genetic structure indicated, for the first time, male-biased dispersal in carabid beetles

Complete Mitogenomes of Two Aragoa Species and Phylogeny of Plantagineae (Plantaginaceae, Lamiales) Using Mitochondrial Genes and the Nuclear Ribosomal RNA Repeat

Aragoa, comprising 19 high-altitude North Andean species, is one of three genera in the Plantagineae (Plantaginaceae, Lamiales), along with Littorella and Plantago. Based primarily on plastid data and nuclear ITS, Aragoa is sister to a clade of Littorella + Plantago, but Plantagineae relationships have yet to be assessed using multigene datasets from the nuclear and mitochondrial genomes. Here, complete mitogenomes were assembled for two species of Aragoa (A. abietina and A. cleefii). The mitogenomes of both species have a typical suite of genes for 34 proteins, 17 tRNAs, and three rRNAs. The A. abietina mitogenome assembled into a simple circular map, with no large repeats capable of producing alternative isoforms. The A. cleefii mitogenomic map was more complex, involving two circular maps bridged by a substoichiometric linear fragment. Phylogenetics of three mitochondrial genes or the nuclear rRNA repeat placed Aragoa as sister to Littorella + Plantago, consistent with previous studies. However, P. nubicola, the sole representative of subg. Bougueria, was nested within subg. Psyllium based on the mitochondrial and nuclear data, conflicting with plastid-based analyses. Phylogenetics of the nuclear rRNA repeat provided better resolution overall, whereas relationships from mitochondrial data were hindered by extensive substitution rate variation among lineages

Development of a Methodology for the Determination of Conceptual Automated Disassembly Systems

At a certain point in its life cycle, a product will reach a condition where it partly or completely loses its functionality. When this happens, the disassembly has the ambition to regenerate a product-value or to enable an environmental friendly product recycling. With regard to the high workload and costs for manual labor one approach to increase the productivity of disassembly tasks is the use of automated disassembly systems (ADS). Depending on different life cycle scenarios, requirements on automated disassembly systems vary. Concerning this problem, a general methodology is developed, which enables the determination of a conceptual ADS by assigning automated modules that are processing the product disassembly. In the first place the objective of a disassembly is determined, followed by a closer investigation of the product. Thereby target components are defined, which has to disassembled. By looking at the connections between these target components suitable separation procedures are derived. Finally, modules of the automated disassembly system are determined

Juvenile arthritis caused by a novel FAMIN (LACC1) mutation in two children with systemic and extended oligoarticular course

Background The pathophysiological origin of juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) is largely unknown. However, individuals with presumably pathogenic mutations in FAMIN have been reported, associating this gene with a rare subtype of this disorder. FAMIN, that is formerly also referred to as LACC1 or C13orf31, has recently been shown to play a crucial role in immune-metabolic functions and is involved in regulation of inflammasome activation and promotion of ROS production. Case presentation We describe two siblings with severe familial forms of juvenile arthritis in which whole-exome-sequencing revealed a novel homozygous frameshift mutation (NM_153218.2:c.827delC¸. p.(T276fs*2) in FAMIN. Conclusions The observation of a new deleterious mutation adds further evidence that pathogenic mutations in FAMIN are causal for a monogenic form of JIA. Furthermore the associated phenotype is not restricted to systemic JIA, but can also be found in other forms of familial juvenile arthritis

A Malvaceae mystery: A mallow maelstrom of genome multiplications and maybe misleading methods?

Previous research suggests that Gossypium has undergone a 5- to 6-fold multiplication following its divergence from Theobroma. However, the number of events, or where they occurred in the Malvaceae phylogeny remains unknown. We analyzed transcriptomic and genomic data from representatives of eight of the nine Malvaceae subfamilies. Phylogenetic analysis of nuclear data placed Dombeya (Dombeyoideae) as sister to the rest of Malvadendrina clade, but the plastid DNA tree strongly supported Durio (Helicteroideae) in this position. Intraspecific Ks plots indicated that all sampled taxa, except Theobroma (Byttnerioideae), Corchorus (Grewioideae), and Dombeya (Dombeyoideae), have experienced whole genome multiplications (WGMs). Quartet analysis suggested WGMs were shared by Malvoideae-Bombacoideae and Sterculioideae-Tilioideae, but did not resolve whether these are shared with each other or Helicteroideae (Durio). Gene tree reconciliation and Bayesian concordance analysis suggested a complex history. Alternative hypotheses are suggested, each involving two independent autotetraploid and one allopolyploid event. They differ in that one entails an allopolyploid origin for the Durio lineage, whereas the other invokes an allopolyploid origin for Malvoideae-Bombacoideae. We highlight the need for more genomic information in the Malvaceae and improved methods to resolve complex evolutionary histories that may include allopolyploidy, incomplete lineage sorting, and variable rates of gene and genome evolution

Multi-walled carbon nanotube physicochemical properties predict pulmonary inflammation and genotoxicity

<p>Lung deposition of multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNT) induces pulmonary toxicity. Commercial MWCNT vary greatly in physicochemical properties and consequently in biological effects. To identify determinants of MWCNT-induced toxicity, we analyzed the effects of pulmonary exposure to 10 commercial MWCNT (supplied in three groups of different dimensions, with one pristine and two/three surface modified in each group). We characterized morphology, chemical composition, surface area and functionalization levels. MWCNT were deposited in lungs of female C57BL/6J mice by intratracheal instillation of 0, 6, 18 or 54 μg/mouse. Pulmonary inflammation (neutrophil influx in bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL)) and genotoxicity were determined on day 1, 28 or 92. Histopathology of the lungs was performed on day 28 and 92. All MWCNT induced similar histological changes. Lymphocytic aggregates were detected for all MWCNT on day 28 and 92. Using adjusted, multiple regression analyses, inflammation and genotoxicity were related to dose, time and physicochemical properties. The specific surface area (BET) was identified as a positive predictor of pulmonary inflammation on all post-exposure days. In addition, length significantly predicted pulmonary inflammation, whereas surface oxidation (–OH and –COOH) was predictor of lowered inflammation on day 28. BET surface area, and therefore diameter, significantly predicted genotoxicity in BAL fluid cells and lung tissue such that lower BET surface area or correspondingly larger diameter was associated with increased genotoxicity. This study provides information on possible toxicity-driving physicochemical properties of MWCNT. The results may contribute to safe-by-design manufacturing of MWCNT, thereby minimizing adverse effects.</p

Fingerlings mass estimation: A comparison between deep and shallow learning algorithms

The paper presents some results regarding the automatic mass estimation of Pintado Real fingerlings, using machine learning techniques to support the fish production process. For this purpose, an image dataset called FISHCV1206FSEG, was created which is composed of 1206 images of fingerlings with their respective annotated masses. Through the fish contours, the area and perimeter were extracted, and submitted to the J48, SVM, and KNN classification algorithms and a linear regression algorithm. The images were also submitted to ResNet50, In- ceptionV3, Exception, VGG16, and VGG19 convolutional neural networks. As a result, the classification algorithm J48 reached an accuracy of 58.2% and a linear regression model capable of predicting the mass of a Pintado Real fingerling with a mean squared error of 1.5 g. The convolutional neural network ResNet50 obtained an accuracy of 67.08%. We can highlight the contributions of this work through the presentation of a methodology to classify the mass of fingerlings in a non-invasive way and by the analyses and comparing results of different machine learning algorithms for classification and regression