East Lancashire Research 2008

East Lancashire Research 200

Measuring sustainable procurement: scoping study

This report describes measures of sustainability that can be used within the procurement process. This is achieved by means of a critical review of existing methodologies that provides a considered base from which to recommend examples of smart indicators to measure key elements of sustainability. These have then been piloted with a subset of emda’s tier one suppliers

Information and communications technologies (ICT) in Higher Education teaching – a tale of gradualism rather than revolution

The widespread adoption of information and communications technologies (ICT) in higher education (HE) since the mid 1990s has failed to produce the radical changes in learning and teaching than many anticipated. Activity theory and Rogers’ model of the adoption of innovations provide analytic frameworks that help develop our understanding of the actual impact of ICT upon teaching practices. This paper draws on a series of large-scale surveys carried out over a 10 year period with distance education tutors at the UK Open University to explore the changing role of ICT in the work of teachers. It investigates how HE teachers in one large distance learning university have, over time, appropriated ICT applications as teaching tools, and the gradual rather than revolutionary changes that have resulted

On Convergence and Threshold Properties of Discrete Lotka-Volterra Population Protocols

In this work we focus on a natural class of population protocols whose dynamics are modelled by the discrete version of Lotka-Volterra equations. In such protocols, when an agent $a$ of type (species) $i$ interacts with an agent $b$ of type (species) $j$ with $a$ as the initiator, then $b$'s type becomes $i$ with probability $P\_{ij}$. In such an interaction, we think of $a$ as the predator, $b$ as the prey, and the type of the prey is either converted to that of the predator or stays as is. Such protocols capture the dynamics of some opinion spreading models and generalize the well-known Rock-Paper-Scissors discrete dynamics. We consider the pairwise interactions among agents that are scheduled uniformly at random. We start by considering the convergence time and show that any Lotka-Volterra-type protocol on an $n$-agent population converges to some absorbing state in time polynomial in $n$, w.h.p., when any pair of agents is allowed to interact. By contrast, when the interaction graph is a star, even the Rock-Paper-Scissors protocol requires exponential time to converge. We then study threshold effects exhibited by Lotka-Volterra-type protocols with 3 and more species under interactions between any pair of agents. We start by presenting a simple 4-type protocol in which the probability difference of reaching the two possible absorbing states is strongly amplified by the ratio of the initial populations of the two other types, which are transient, but "control" convergence. We then prove that the Rock-Paper-Scissors protocol reaches each of its three possible absorbing states with almost equal probability, starting from any configuration satisfying some sub-linear lower bound on the initial size of each species. That is, Rock-Paper-Scissors is a realization of a "coin-flip consensus" in a distributed system. Some of our techniques may be of independent value

Mobility promotes and jeopardizes biodiversity in rock-paper-scissors games

Biodiversity is essential to the viability of ecological systems. Species diversity in ecosystems is promoted by cyclic, non-hierarchical interactions among competing populations. Such non-transitive relations lead to an evolution with central features represented by the `rock-paper-scissors' game, where rock crushes scissors, scissors cut paper, and paper wraps rock. In combination with spatial dispersal of static populations, this type of competition results in the stable coexistence of all species and the long-term maintenance of biodiversity. However, population mobility is a central feature of real ecosystems: animals migrate, bacteria run and tumble. Here, we observe a critical influence of mobility on species diversity. When mobility exceeds a certain value, biodiversity is jeopardized and lost. In contrast, below this critical threshold all subpopulations coexist and an entanglement of travelling spiral waves forms in the course of temporal evolution. We establish that this phenomenon is robust, it does not depend on the details of cyclic competition or spatial environment. These findings have important implications for maintenance and evolution of ecological systems and are relevant for the formation and propagation of patterns in excitable media, such as chemical kinetics or epidemic outbreaks.Comment: Final submitted version; the printed version can be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature06095 Supplementary movies are available at http://www.theorie.physik.uni-muenchen.de/lsfrey/images_content/movie1.AVI and http://www.theorie.physik.uni-muenchen.de/lsfrey/images_content/movie2.AV

Social deprivation and prognostic benefits of cardiac surgery: observational study of 44 902 patients from five hospitals over 10 years

Objective To assess the effects of social deprivation on survival after cardiac surgery and to examine the influence of potentially modifiable risk factors

Construct-level predictive validity of educational attainment and intellectual aptitude tests in medical student selection: meta-regression of six UK longitudinal studies

Background: Measures used for medical student selection should predict future performance during training. A problem for any selection study is that predictor-outcome correlations are known only in those who have been selected, whereas selectors need to know how measures would predict in the entire pool of applicants. That problem of interpretation can be solved by calculating construct-level predictive validity, an estimate of true predictor-outcome correlation across the range of applicant abilities. Methods: Construct-level predictive validities were calculated in six cohort studies of medical student selection and training (student entry, 1972 to 2009) for a range of predictors, including A-levels, General Certificates of Secondary Education (GCSEs)/O-levels, and aptitude tests (AH5 and UK Clinical Aptitude Test (UKCAT)). Outcomes included undergraduate basic medical science and finals assessments, as well as postgraduate measures of Membership of the Royal Colleges of Physicians of the United Kingdom (MRCP(UK)) performance and entry in the Specialist Register. Construct-level predictive validity was calculated with the method of Hunter, Schmidt and Le (2006), adapted to correct for right-censorship of examination results due to grade inflation. Results: Meta-regression analyzed 57 separate predictor-outcome correlations (POCs) and construct-level predictive validities (CLPVs). Mean CLPVs are substantially higher (.450) than mean POCs (.171). Mean CLPVs for first-year examinations, were high for A-levels (.809; CI: .501 to .935), and lower for GCSEs/O-levels (.332; CI: .024 to .583) and UKCAT (mean = .245; CI: .207 to .276). A-levels had higher CLPVs for all undergraduate and postgraduate assessments than did GCSEs/O-levels and intellectual aptitude tests. CLPVs of educational attainment measures decline somewhat during training, but continue to predict postgraduate performance. Intellectual aptitude tests have lower CLPVs than A-levels or GCSEs/O-levels. Conclusions: Educational attainment has strong CLPVs for undergraduate and postgraduate performance, accounting for perhaps 65% of true variance in first year performance. Such CLPVs justify the use of educational attainment measure in selection, but also raise a key theoretical question concerning the remaining 35% of variance (and measurement error, range restriction and right-censorship have been taken into account). Just as in astrophysics, ‘dark matter’ and ‘dark energy’ are posited to balance various theoretical equations, so medical student selection must also have its ‘dark variance’, whose nature is not yet properly characterized, but explains a third of the variation in performance during training. Some variance probably relates to factors which are unpredictable at selection, such as illness or other life events, but some is probably also associated with factors such as personality, motivation or study skills

Scale-free memory model for multiagent reinforcement learning. Mean field approximation and rock-paper-scissors dynamics

A continuous time model for multiagent systems governed by reinforcement learning with scale-free memory is developed. The agents are assumed to act independently of one another in optimizing their choice of possible actions via trial-and-error search. To gain awareness about the action value the agents accumulate in their memory the rewards obtained from taking a specific action at each moment of time. The contribution of the rewards in the past to the agent current perception of action value is described by an integral operator with a power-law kernel. Finally a fractional differential equation governing the system dynamics is obtained. The agents are considered to interact with one another implicitly via the reward of one agent depending on the choice of the other agents. The pairwise interaction model is adopted to describe this effect. As a specific example of systems with non-transitive interactions, a two agent and three agent systems of the rock-paper-scissors type are analyzed in detail, including the stability analysis and numerical simulation. Scale-free memory is demonstrated to cause complex dynamics of the systems at hand. In particular, it is shown that there can be simultaneously two modes of the system instability undergoing subcritical and supercritical bifurcation, with the latter one exhibiting anomalous oscillations with the amplitude and period growing with time. Besides, the instability onset via this supercritical mode may be regarded as "altruism self-organization". For the three agent system the instability dynamics is found to be rather irregular and can be composed of alternate fragments of oscillations different in their properties.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figur

Effect of a polyphenol-rich dietary pattern on intestinal permeability and gut and blood microbiomics in older subjects: study protocol of the MaPLE randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: During aging, alterations of the intestinal microbial ecosystem can occur contributing to immunosenescence, inflamm-aging and impairment of intestinal barrier function (increased intestinal permeability; IP). In the context of a diet-microbiota-IP axis in older subjects, food bioactives such as polyphenols may play a beneficial modulatory role. METHODS: MaPLE is a project centered on a randomized, controlled cross-over dietary intervention trial [polyphenol-rich diet (PR-diet) versus control diet (C-diet)] targeted to older people ( 65 60 y) living in a well-controlled setting (i.e. nursing home). The 8-week interventions are separated by an 8-week wash-out period. Three small portions per day of selected polyphenol-rich foods are consumed during intervention in substitution of other comparable products within the C-diet. Biological samples are collected before and after each treatment period to evaluate markers related to IP, inflammation, vascular function, oxidative stress, gut and blood microbiomics, metabolomics. A sample size of 50 subjects was defined based on IP as primary outcome. DISCUSSION: Evidence that increasing the consumption of polyphenol-rich food products can positively affect intestinal microbial ecosystem resulting in reduced IP and decreased translocation of inflammogenic bacterial factors into the bloodstream will be provided. The integration of data from gut and blood microbiomics, metabolomics and other IP-related markers will improve the understanding of the beneficial effect of the intervention in the context of polyphenols-microbiota-IP interactions. Finally, findings obtained will provide a proof of concept of the reliability of the dietary intervention, also contributing to future implementations of dietary guidelines directed to IP management in the older and other at risk subjects. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial is registered at (ISRCTN10214981); April 28, 2017