User's guide to Monte Carlo methods for evaluating path integrals

We give an introduction to the calculation of path integrals on a lattice, with the quantum harmonic oscillator as an example. In addition to providing an explicit computational setup and corresponding pseudocode, we pay particular attention to the existence of autocorrelations and the calculation of reliable errors. The over-relaxation technique is presented as a way to counter strong autocorrelations. The simulation methods can be extended to compute observables for path integrals in other settings

Estimating permeability and its scale dependence at pore scale using renormalization group theory

Investigating hydraulic and petrophysical properties of porous media has been an active area of research. Despite numerous progress in modeling flow and transport over the past decades, we are still far from accurately estimating the scale dependence of soil and rock properties. In this study, we propose applying renormalization group theory (RGT) at the pore scale. Using the RGT, we determine the scale dependence of effective pore-throat radius (rteff) and develop two theoretical models to estimate permeability (k) in pore networks of various sizes. The first theoretical model estimates k(L) from the rteff(L) and simulated formation factor F(L), while the second model uses information at the smallest scale (L = Lmin) in addition to rteff(L) and F(L). By comparing with 25 pore-network simulations, we show that the RGT estimates the scale-dependent k reasonably well. The first model estimates k(L) with average relative errors ranged between −53.1% and −3.0%, while the second model between −1.0% and 14.33%. We also conduct fluid flow simulations in 40 other pore networks above the representative elementary volume and compare the results of the RGT with those of the effective-medium approximation (EMA). Results showed that both RGT and EMA accurately estimate k from pore-throat radius distribution and formation factor with root mean square log-transformed error = 0.119 and 0.096, respectively

Pressure statistics from the path integral for Darcy flow through random porous media

The path integral for classical statistical dynamics is used to determine the properties of one-dimensional Darcy flow through a porous medium with a correlated stochastic permeability for several spatial correlation lengths. Pressure statistics are obtained from the numerical evaluation of the path integral by using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. Comparisons between these pressure distributions and those calculated from the classic finite-volume method for the corresponding stochastic differential equation show excellent agreement for Dirichlet and Neumann boundary conditions. The evaluation of the variance of the pressure based on a continuum description of the medium provides an estimate of the effects of discretization. Log-normal and Gaussian fits to the pressure distributions as a function of position within the porous medium are discussed in relation to the spatial extent of the correlations of the permeability fluctuations

Disease prevention versus data privacy : using landcover maps to inform spatial epidemic models

The availability of epidemiological data in the early stages of an outbreak of an infectious disease is vital for modelers to make accurate predictions regarding the likely spread of disease and preferred intervention strategies. However, in some countries, the necessary demographic data are only available at an aggregate scale. We investigated the ability of models of livestock infectious diseases to predict epidemic spread and obtain optimal control policies in the event of imperfect, aggregated data. Taking a geographic information approach, we used land cover data to predict UK farm locations and investigated the influence of using these synthetic location data sets upon epidemiological predictions in the event of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. When broadly classified land cover data were used to create synthetic farm locations, model predictions deviated significantly from those simulated on true data. However, when more resolved subclass land use data were used, moderate to highly accurate predictions of epidemic size, duration and optimal vaccination and ring culling strategies were obtained. This suggests that a geographic information approach may be useful where individual farm-level data are not available, to allow predictive analyses to be carried out regarding the likely spread of disease. This method can also be used for contingency planning in collaboration with policy makers to determine preferred control strategies in the event of a future outbreak of infectious disease in livestock

Predicting the onset and persistence of episodes of depression in primary health care. The predictD-Spain study: Methodology

Background: The effects of putative risk factors on the onset and/or persistence of depression remain unclear. We aim to develop comprehensive models to predict the onset and persistence of episodes of depression in primary care. Here we explain the general methodology of the predictD-Spain study and evaluate the reliability of the questionnaires used. Methods: This is a prospective cohort study. A systematic random sample of general practice attendees aged 18 to 75 has been recruited in seven Spanish provinces. Depression is being measured with the CIDI at baseline, and at 6, 12, 24 and 36 months. A set of individual, environmental, genetic, professional and organizational risk factors are to be assessed at each follow-up point. In a separate reliability study, a proportional random sample of 401 participants completed the test-retest (251 researcher-administered and 150 self-administered) between October 2005 and February 2006. We have also checked 118,398 items for data entry from a random sample of 480 patients stratified by province. Results: All items and questionnaires had good test-retest reliability for both methods of administration, except for the use of recreational drugs over the previous six months. Cronbach's alphas were good and their factorial analyses coherent for the three scales evaluated (social support from family and friends, dissatisfaction with paid work, and dissatisfaction with unpaid work). There were 191 (0.16%) data entry errors. Conclusion: The items and questionnaires were reliable and data quality control was excellent. When we eventually obtain our risk index for the onset and persistence of depression, we will be able to determine the individual risk of each patient evaluated in primary health car

Left Displacement of the Abomasum in 4 Beef Calves

Citation: Oman, R. E., Streeter, R. N., Reppert, E. J., & Chako, C. Z. (2016). Left Displacement of the Abomasum in 4 Beef Calves. Journal of Veterinary Internal Medicine, 30(4), 1376-1380. doi:10.1111/jvim.14353BackgroundLittle is known about the occurrence rate, underlying etiology or treatment of left displacement of the abomasum in beef calves. ObjectiveDescribe the clinical presentation, diagnosis and treatment of left displacement of the abomasum in 4 beef calves. AnimalsFour client-owned beef breed calves with left displaced abomasum (LDA). MethodsRetrospective case series. Hospital medical records were reviewed to identify all beef breed cattle under the age of 6 months diagnosed with LDA. ResultsFour beef calves were treated for left displacement of the abomasum. All four had a history of decreased appetite and left-sided abdominal distention. Two had recently been treated for necrotic laryngitis and one was being treated for clostridial abomasitis. Ultrasonography confirmed the abomasum to be displaced between the rumen and the left body wall in all calves. The calves were initially treated by rolling to correct the abomasal displacement. The abomasum redisplaced in 3 of 4 calves within 1 hour to 6 days; 1 calf developed a mesenteric volvulus. A right paramedian abomasopexy was performed in all cases. Three of 4 calves grew well and remained in the herd 6-18 months later; 1 calf was euthanized because of complications associated with necrotic laryngitis. Conclusions and clinical importanceLeft displacement of the abomasum should be considered as a differential diagnosis for beef calves with abdominal distention. Concurrent necrotic laryngitis can increase the risk of abomasal displacement in beef calves. Treatment should include surgical correction as rolling is not curative and might be associated with mesenteric volvulus

Should Research Ethics Encourage the Production of Cost-Effective Interventions?

This project considers whether and how research ethics can contribute to the provision of cost-effective medical interventions. Clinical research ethics represents an underexplored context for the promotion of cost-effectiveness. In particular, although scholars have recently argued that research on less-expensive, less-effective interventions can be ethical, there has been little or no discussion of whether ethical considerations justify curtailing research on more expensive, more effective interventions. Yet considering cost-effectiveness at the research stage can help ensure that scarce resources such as tissue samples or limited subject popula- tions are employed where they do the most good; can support parallel efforts by providers and insurers to promote cost-effectiveness; and can ensure that research has social value and benefits subjects. I discuss and rebut potential objections to the consideration of cost-effectiveness in research, including the difficulty of predicting effectiveness and cost at the research stage, concerns about limitations in cost-effectiveness analysis, and worries about overly limiting researchers’ freedom. I then consider the advantages and disadvantages of having certain participants in the research enterprise, including IRBs, advisory committees, sponsors, investigators, and subjects, consider cost-effectiveness. The project concludes by qualifiedly endorsing the consideration of cost-effectiveness at the research stage. While incorporating cost-effectiveness considerations into the ethical evaluation of human subjects research will not on its own ensure that the health care system realizes cost-effectiveness goals, doing so nonetheless represents an important part of a broader effort to control rising medical costs

Neoliberalisation and 'lad cultures' in higher education

This paper links HE neoliberalisation and ‘lad cultures’, drawing on interviews and focus groups with women students. We argue that retro-sexist ‘laddish’ forms of masculine competitiveness and misogyny have been reshaped by neoliberal rationalities to become modes of consumerist sexualised audit. We also suggest that neoliberal frameworks scaffold an individualistic and adversarial culture among young people that interacts with perceived threats to men’s privilege and intensifies attempts to put women in their place through misogyny and sexual harassment. Furthermore, ‘lad cultures’, sexism and sexual harassment in higher education may be invisibilised by institutions to preserve marketability in a neoliberal context. In response, we ask if we might foster dialogue and partnership between feminist and anti-marketisation politics

The potential impact of climate change on Australia's soil organic carbon resources

BACKGROUND: Soil organic carbon (SOC) represents a significant pool of carbon within the biosphere. Climatic shifts in temperature and precipitation have a major influence on the decomposition and amount of SOC stored within an ecosystem and that released into the atmosphere. We have linked net primary production (NPP) algorithms, which include the impact of enhanced atmospheric CO(2 )on plant growth, to the SOCRATES terrestrial carbon model to estimate changes in SOC for the Australia continent between the years 1990 and 2100 in response to climate changes generated by the CSIRO Mark 2 Global Circulation Model (GCM). RESULTS: We estimate organic carbon storage in the topsoil (0–10 cm) of the Australian continent in 1990 to be 8.1 Gt. This equates to 19 and 34 Gt in the top 30 and 100 cm of soil, respectively. By the year 2100, under a low emissions scenario, topsoil organic carbon stores of the continent will have increased by 0.6% (49 Mt C). Under a high emissions scenario, the Australian continent becomes a source of CO(2 )with a net reduction of 6.4% (518 Mt) in topsoil carbon, when compared to no climate change. This is partially offset by the predicted increase in NPP of 20.3% CONCLUSION: Climate change impacts must be studied holistically, requiring integration of climate, plant, ecosystem and soil sciences. The SOCRATES terrestrial carbon cycling model provides realistic estimates of changes in SOC storage in response to climate change over the next century, and confirms the need for greater consideration of soils in assessing the full impact of climate change and the development of quantifiable mitigation strategies