Epistemic Reliability of Neyman-Pearson Hypothesis Testing and Its Pragmatic Value-Laden Unequal Error Risk Setting

In this paper, we examine whether N-P can be seen as principally satisfying, in a minimal sense, some general epistemic standards and how pragmatic value-laden uneven setting of error probabilities can influence it. Using the concept of predictive value it is shown that Neyman-Pearson's theory of testing hypothesis offers at least minimal epistemic reliability only under the assumption that among the tested hypotheses the number of true hypotheses is equal to the number of false hypotheses. We also argue that N-P does not protect from the possible negative effects of the pragmatic value-laden unequal setting of error probabilities on N-P’s epistemic reliability. We show how pragmatic factors implemented in the form of the asymmetric setting of probabilities of two types of error may have a positive or negative impact on the epistemic reliability of N-P dependent on the case of the hypothesis tested and the assumption about the ratio of true to false hypotheses. More importantly, we argue that in the case of negative impact no methodological adjustment is available to neutralize it so in such cases the discussed pragmatic-value-ladenness of N-P inevitably compromises the goal of attainment of the truth

Neyman-Pearson Hypothesis Testing, Epistemic Reliability and Pragmatic Value-Laden Asymmetric Error Risks

We show that if among the tested hypotheses the number of true hypotheses is not equal to the number of false hypotheses, then Neyman-Pearson theory of testing hypotheses does not warrant minimal epistemic reliability (the feature of driving to true conclusions more often than to false ones). We also argue that N-P does not protect from the possible negative effects of the pragmatic value-laden unequal setting of error probabilities on N-P’s epistemic reliability. Most importantly, we argue that in the case of a negative impact no methodological adjustment is available to neutralize it, so in such cases the discussed pragmatic-value-ladenness of N-P inevitably compromises the goal of attaining truth

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on startups operating in the Lublin region

PURPOSE: The purpose of this work is to explore the problems that the startups operating in the Poland’s Lublin region are struggling and then to select the pairs problem-industry where there is a statistically significant relationship.DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: The research method was a diagnostic survey with the use of a questionnaire as a research tool. The questionnaire was sent out through Google Forms to the startups run the Lublin region. In total, the study covered 219 entities.FINDINGS: The conclusions from the research indicate that startups experienced serious hardship during the pandemic, which included problems with financial liquidity, decreasing sales volume, maintaining existing clients and acquiring new customers, and logistics difficulties. The research shows that the occurrence of particular groups of problems at a given level of significance, depends on a relatively small number of features. Analyzing individual problems, we found that the industry in which a given enterprise operates has no significant relation with the problems it experienced. Only in case of such problems as introducing remote work, access to new capital, sales drop, retaining present customers, ensuring health security of employees, renegotiation of contracts, and the issues concerning cybersecurity, there is a statistically significant relationship.PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: The paper provides knowledge on the problems faced by startups in particular sectors of the economy. This knowledge can influence decisions made both by decision-makers within institutions providing support to businesses, as well as by entities operating in the surveyed industries.ORIGINALITY/VALUE: The paper presents the outcome of the recent study, carried out at the turn of 2020 and 2021, on the situation of startups operating in the Lublin region and their performance in a time of the pandemic.peer-reviewe

Valuation of marine areas for merchant shipping: an attempt at shipping spatial rent valuation based on Polish Marine Areas

As part of the progressive process of extending spatial plans to cover an increasing number of marine areas, with the aim of objectively balancing the interests of various users of the marine area, it has become necessary to establish the value of marine areas as a yardstick or determinant of the user group for which a given marine area is of greater value. This study seeks to fill a research gap by attempting to develop a method to calculate the value of marine areas for the commercial shipping industry. This is done to make it possible in the future to prepare the ground for policy regulating the spatial rent of the sea, whose most important users are shipowners and their ships. We use the homogeneous basin of the Polish Marine Areas (PMA) in the Baltic Sea. Based on a literature review, we conclude that such a method does not exist, posing a significant challenge in the process of marine/maritime spatial planning (MSP) and maritime policy formulation. Conducting an in-depth analysis of 2020 data on ship traffic in the basin noted above, combined with a financial analysis of shipowners’ operating costs and profitability indicators, we can determine the value of marine areas both in aggregate for all shipping in the studied basin and for each of the five segments of shipping – the bulk cargo, ro-ro cargo, container, tanker, and passenger segments. In addition, through a dynamic analysis of ship traffic, it is possible to determine the value of sea area in Polish seawaters per unit of area (1 km²) at the average level and for the five specified market segments. The obtained values show that the total profits of shipowners in the Polish Marine Areas, which are at the level of more than EUR 103 million per year, and the average value of profits per 1 km² of marine area used by a ship provide future decision-makers with an objective point of reference to shape future policies for the fiscalization of public space, including the sea

Neyman-Pearson Hypothesis Testing, Epistemic Reliability and Pragmatic Value-Laden Asymmetric Error Risks

We show that if among the tested hypotheses the number of true hypotheses is not equal to the number of false hypotheses, then Neyman-Pearson theory of testing hypotheses does not warrant minimal epistemic reliability (the feature of driving to true conclusions more often than to false ones). We also argue that N-P does not protect from the possible negative effects of the pragmatic value-laden unequal setting of error probabilities on N-P’s epistemic reliability. Most importantly, we argue that in the case of a negative impact no methodological adjustment is available to neutralize it, so in such cases the discussed pragmatic-value-ladenness of N-P inevitably compromises the goal of attaining truth

ZIARNISTA REPREZENTACJA POTENCJAŁU INFORMACYJNEGO ZMIENNYCH – PRZYKŁAD ZASTOSOWANIA

With the introduction to the science paradigm of Granular Computing, in particular, information granules, the way of thinking about data has changed gradually. Both specialists and scientists stopped focusing on the single data records themselves, but began to look at the analyzed data in a broader context, closer to the way people think. This kind of knowledge representation is expressed, in particular, in approaches based on linguistic modelling or fuzzy techniques such as fuzzy clustering. Therefore, especially important from the point of view of the methodology of data research, is an attempt to understand their potential as information granules. In this study, we will present special cases of using the innovative method of representing the information potential of variables with the use of information granules. In a series of numerical experiments based on both artificially generated data and ecological data on changes in bird arrival dates in the context of climate change, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach using classic, not fuzzy measures building information granules.Wraz z wprowadzeniem do nauki paradygmatu obliczeń ziarnistych, w szczególności ziaren informacji, sposób myślenia o danych stopniowo się zmieniał. Zarówno specjaliści, jak i naukowcy przestali skupiać się na samych rekordach pojedynczych danych, ale zaczęli patrzeć na analizowane dane w szerszym kontekście, bliższym ludzkiemu myśleniu. Ten rodzaj reprezentacji wiedzy wyraża się w szczególności w podejściach opartych na modelowaniu językowym lub technikach rozmytych, takich jak klasteryzacja rozmyta. Dlatego szczególnie ważna z punktu widzenia metodologii badania danych jest próba zrozumienia ich potencjału jako ziaren informacji. W niniejszym opracowaniu przedstawimy szczególne przypadki wykorzystania innowacyjnej metody reprezentacji potencjału informacyjnego zmiennych za pomocą ziaren informacji. W serii eksperymentów numerycznych opartych zarówno na danych generowanych sztucznie, jak i danych ekologicznych dotyczących zmian dat przylotów ptaków w kontekście zmian klimatycznych, demonstrujemy skuteczność proponowanego podejścia przy użyciu klasycznych, a nie rozmytych miar budujących ziarna informacji

Travel Time Forecasting Based on Fuzzy Patterns

Estimating travel time is one of the most important processes in logistics as well as in everyday life. In particular, when it comes to transportation services, efficient time management can be a competitive advantage, not to mention customer satisfaction, which can be easily translated into business success. Therefore, in this study we analyze various travel time estimation methods in combination with a well-known Fuzzy C-Means clustering algorithm. The proposed FCM-based solution has significant advantages, allowing for the determination of the optimal travel time. In an extensive numerical experiment, we present the application of the proposed method to estimate the time of a taxi trip around New York. Due to division of the city area into detailed areas and taking into account information about the travel time in the analysis, a model was obtained, that perfectly forecasts speed of taxi travel. In this study we consider various, competitive approaches to build such a model