Multi-scale Spatial Analysis of the Water-Food-Climate Nexus in the Nile Basin using Earth Observation Data

Securing enough water and food for everyone is a great challenge that the humanity faces today. This challenge is aggravated by many external drivers such as population growth, climate variability, and degradation of natural resources. Solutions for weak water and food securities require holistic knowledge of the different involved drivers through a nexus approach that looks at the interlinkages and the multi-directional synergies to be promoted and increased and trade-offs to be reduced or eliminated. In particular, the interlinkages between water, food, and climate, the so-called Water-Food-Climate Nexus (WFC Nexus) is critical for the given challenge in many regions around the world such as the Nile Basin (NB). Studying the WFC Nexus synergies and trade-offs might provide entry points for the required interventions that are potential to induce positive impacts on water and food securities. However, these synergies and trade-offs are not well known due to factors such as the complexity of the interactions which involve many dimensions within and across spatial and temporal domains and unavailability of reliable ground observations that could be used for such analysis. Therefore, multidisciplinary research that encompasses different methodologies and employs datasets with adequate spatial and temporal resolutions is required. The recent advancement in Earth Observation (EO) sensors and data processing algorithms have resulted in the accumulation of big data that are produced in rates faster than their usage in solving real challenges such as the one that is in the focus of the current research. The availability of public-domain datasets for several parameters with spatial and temporal coverage offers an excellent opportunity to discover the WFC Nexus interlinkages. To this end, the main goal of the current research is to employ EO data derived from public-domain datasets and supplemented with other primary and secondary data to identify WFC Nexus synergies and trade-offs in the NB region, taking the agricultural systems in Sudan as a central focus of this assessment. By concentrating mainly on the agricultural systems in Sudan, which are characterized by low performance and efficiency despite the huge potentials for food production, the current research provides a representative case study that could deliver helpful and transferrable knowledge to many areas within and outside the NB region. In the current research, multi-scale analysis of the WFC Nexus synergies and trade-offs was conducted. The assessment involved investigations on a country scale as a strategic level, and on river basin, agricultural scheme (both irrigated and rainfed systems) and field scales as operational levels. On a country scale, a general analysis of the vegetation’s Net Primary Productivity (NPP) and Water and Carbon Use Efficiencies (WUE and CUE, respectively) in different land cover types was carried out. A comparison between the land cover types in Sudan and Ethiopia was conducted to understand and compare the impact of inter-annual climate variability on the NPP, WUE and CUE indicators of these different land cover types under relatively different climate regimes. The results of this analysis indicate low magnitude of the three indicators in the land cover types that are in Sudan compared to their counterparts in Ethiopia. Moreover, the response of these indicators to climate variability varies widely among the land cover types. In addition, land cover types such as forests and woody savannah represent important natural sinks for the atmospheric CO2 that need to be protected. These observations suggest the need for effective policies that enhance crop productivity, especially in Sudan, and at the same time ensure preserving the land cover types that are important for climate change mitigation. On a river basin scale, which represented by the Blue Nile Basin (BNB), precipitation estimation is of utmost importance, as it is not only the main source of water in the basin but also because precipitation variability is controlling food production in the agricultural systems, especially in the rainfed schemes. The high spatial and temporal variation in precipitation within the BNB suggests the need for water storage and water harvesting be promoted and practiced. This would ensure water transfer spatially from wet to dry areas and temporally from wet to dry seasons. As a major staple cereal crop in Sudan, the performance of sorghum production in irrigated and rainfed schemes was investigated on agriculture schemes and field scales. A noticeable low and unstable sorghum yield is detected under both agricultural systems. This low performance represents a serious challenge, not only for food production but also for water availability. The current low performance was found to be controlled by many factors of physical, socio-economic and management nature. As many of these factors are closely linked, effectively addressing some of them might induce positive impacts on the other controlling factors. To conclude, the identified synergies and trade-offs of the WFC Nexus could be used as entry points to increase the efficiency of water use and bridge the crop yield gap. Even simple interventions in the field might induce positive effects to the total crop production of the agricultural schemes and water use efficiency. The increase of water availability in the river basin and improved production in the schemes would enhance the overall water and food security in the country and would minimize the need to convert land covers that are important for climate change mitigation into croplands. This paradigm shift needs to be done through a comprehensive sustainable intensification (SI) framework that is not only aimed at increasing crop yield but also targets promoting a healthy environment, improved livelihood, and a growing economy

Book Success Prediction with Pretrained Sentence Embeddings and Readability Scores

Predicting the potential success of a book in advance is vital in many applications. This could help both publishers and readers in their decision-making process whether or not a book is worth publishing and reading, respectively. In this paper, we propose a model that leverages pretrained sentence embeddings along with various readability scores for book success prediction. Unlike previous methods, the proposed method requires no count-based, lexical, or syntactic features. Instead, we use a convolutional neural network over pretrained sentence embeddings and leverage different readability scores through a simple concatenation operation. Our proposed model outperforms strong baselines for this task by as large as 6.4\% F1-score points. Moreover, our experiments show that according to our model, only the first 1K sentences are good enough to predict the potential success of books

Assessing the Online Purchasing Behavior during the Covid-19 Pandemic: A Case Study in the Kingdom of Bahrain

The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted consumer habits of buying and shopping. It is anticipated that online purchasing transactions are increased during the pandemic, since the consumers are urged to stay home and practice new normal behavior. This study examines the online purchasing transactions in the Kingdom of Bahrain during the pandemic. Particularly, the study investigates the impacts of product price, product availability, social media, product details, and easiness toward online purchasing decision during Covid-19 pandemic. Using hand-collected data from 200 respondents, the study discovers that all variables have significant impacts toward online purchasing behavior in the Kingdom of Bahrain during the pandemic age

Neural network classifier for hand motion detection from EMG signal

EMG signal based research is ongoing for the development of simple, robust, user friendly, efficient interfacing devices/systems for the disabled. The advancement can be observed in the area of robotic devices, prosthesis limb, exoskeleton, wearable computer, I/O for virtual reality games and physical exercise equipments. Additionally, electromyography (EMG) signals can also be applied in the field of human computer interaction (HCI) system. This paper represents the detection of different predefined hand motions (left, right, up and down) using artificial neural network (ANN). A backpropagation (BP) network with Levenberg-Marquardt training algorithm has been utilized for the classification of EMG signals. The conventional and most effective time and timefrequency based feature set is utilized for the training of neural network. The obtained results show that the designed network is able to recognize hand movements with satisfied classification efficiency in average of 88.4%. Furthermore, when the trained network tested on unknown data set, it successfully identify the movement types

LitCab: Lightweight Calibration of Language Models on Outputs of Varied Lengths

A model is considered well-calibrated when its probability estimate aligns with the actual likelihood of the output being correct. Calibrating language models (LMs) is crucial, as it plays a vital role in detecting and mitigating hallucinations, a common issue of LMs, as well as building more trustworthy models. Yet, popular neural model calibration techniques are not well-suited for LMs due to their lack of flexibility in discerning answer correctness and their high computational costs. For instance, post-processing methods like temperature scaling are often unable to reorder the candidate generations. Moreover, training-based methods require finetuning the entire model, which is impractical due to the increasing sizes of modern LMs. In this paper, we present LitCab, a lightweight calibration mechanism consisting of a single linear layer taking the input text representation and manipulateing the LM output logits. LitCab improves model calibration by only adding < 2% of the original model parameters. For evaluation, we construct CaT, a benchmark consisting of 7 text generation tasks, covering responses ranging from short phrases to paragraphs. We test LitCab with Llama2-7B, where it improves calibration across all tasks, by reducing the average ECE score by 20%. We further conduct a comprehensive evaluation with 7 popular open-sourced LMs from GPT and LLaMA families, yielding the following key findings: (1) Larger models within the same family exhibit better calibration on tasks with short generation tasks, but not necessarily for longer ones. (2) GPT-family models show superior calibration compared to LLaMA, Llama2 and Vicuna models despite having much fewer parameters. (3) Finetuning pretrained model (e.g., LLaMA) with samples of limited purpose (e.g., conversations) may lead to worse calibration, highlighting the importance of finetuning setups for calibrating LMs

Design of a MPPT System Based on Modified Grey Wolf Optimization Algorithm in Photovoltaic System under Partially Shaded Condition

Conventional Maximum Potential Monitoring strategies such as perturbation and observation, incremental conduct, and climbing can effectively monitor the maximum power point in uniform shading, whereas failing in a partially shaded condition. Nevertheless, it is difficult to achieve optimal and reliable power by using photovoltaics. So, to solve this issue, this article proposes to monitor the photovoltaic system's global optimum powerpoint for partial shading with a Modified Gray Wolf Optimizer (MGWO) based maximum power point tracking algorithm. Under partial shadows, a mathematical model of the PV system is built with a single diode, EGWO is used to monitor global maximum power points.&nbsp; A photovoltaic system includes deciding which converter is used to increase photovoltaic power generation. The MPPT architecture uses a modified gray wolf optimization algorithm to quickly track the output power and reduce photovoltaic oscillations. The efficiency of the maximum power tracker is better than the GWO algorithm of up to 0,4 s with the modified gray wolf optimization algorithm. Converters are used to resolve the power losses often occurring in PV systems with a soft-buck converter process.&nbsp; The output of the power generator is greater than the soft-switching buck converter. The simulation and experimental results obtained suggest that both the P &amp; O and IPSO MPPTs are superior to the proposed MPPT algorithm, the proposed algorithm increases the traceability efficiency. The suggested algorithm has the fastest follow-up speed since the α value decreases during the iteration exponentially

Extracting Synonyms from Bilingual Dictionaries

We present our progress in developing a novel algorithm to extract synonyms from bilingual dictionaries. Identification and usage of synonyms play a significant role in improving the performance of information access applications. The idea is to construct a translation graph from translation pairs, then to extract and consolidate cyclic paths to form bilingual sets of synonyms. The initial evaluation of this algorithm illustrates promising results in extracting Arabic-English bilingual synonyms. In the evaluation, we first converted the synsets in the Arabic WordNet into translation pairs (i.e., losing word-sense memberships). Next, we applied our algorithm to rebuild these synsets. We compared the original and extracted synsets obtaining an F-Measure of 82.3% and 82.1% for Arabic and English synsets extraction, respectively.Comment: In Proceedings - 11th International Global Wordnet Conference (GWC2021). Global Wordnet Association (2021