A framework for macroeconomic consistency for Zimbabwe

The objective of this paper is to apply a framework for macroeconomic consistency to Zimbabwe. Using annual data for 1981and 1987, the paper illustrates the usefulness of imposing consistency on the flow budget accounts (in both current and constant prices) of a developing economy. It presents the following comprehensive six-sector application: the central government, public enterprises plus local government, the central bank, the deposit banking system, the nonfinancial private sector, and the external sector. This framework provides: (a) an organizing device with which to check the internal consistency of data; (b) a snapshot of the principal resource transfers in the economy, which can be helpful in diagnosing and analyzing macroeconomic imbalances and unsustainable resources flows; and (c) a tool for financial programming or a first step in a model-building effort that entails specifying behavioral relationships.Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Theory&Research,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Environmental Economics&Policies,Financial Intermediation

Forecasting of meteorological drought using Hidden Markov Model (case study: The upper Blue Nile river basin, Ethiopia)

AbstractAn improved drought management must rely on an accurate monitoring and forecasting of the phenomenon in order to activate appropriate mitigation measures. In this study, several homogenous Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) were developed to forecast droughts using the Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI, at short-medium term. Validation of the developed models was carried out with reference to precipitation series observed in 22 stations located in the upper Blue Nile river basin. The performance of the HMM was measured using various forecast skill criteria. Results indicate that Hidden Markov Model provides a fairly good agreement between observed and forecasted values in terms of the SPI time series on various lead time. Results seem to confirm the reliability of the proposed models to discriminate between events and non-events relatively well, thus suggesting the suitability of the proposed procedure as a tool for drought management and drought early warning

Monitoring socioeconomic inequity in maternal health indicators in Egypt: 1995-2005

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Egypt's longstanding commitment to safe motherhood and maternal health has paid off in substantial declines in maternal mortality ratio and significant improvement in the levels of many maternal health indicators. The current study aims to monitor trends of maternal health indicators and their socioeconomic inequities among Egyptian women over ten-year period (1995-2005). It poses the question "to what extent have the recent maternal health improvements been shared among the various socioeconomic categories of women?"</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The current paper uses data on maternal health available in three consecutive Demographic and Health Surveys (1995-2000-2005). Concentration index is used to assess the levels of health inequity over the ten year period.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Although previous efforts in maternal health have contributed to substantial improvements in the general levels of maternal health indicators, these improvements were not enjoyed equally by women in various social groups. Indicators that have long been the focus of health policy such as fertility and contraceptive use showed some declines in disparities but they are far behind from achieving equity. Other indicators which relate to unmet need, prenatal care, delivery, postnatal care still loaded with high levels of inequity and call for more comprehensive policy interventions.</p

Integration of Data-Driven Modeling and Stochastic Modeling for Multi-purpose Reservoir Simulation

Water Resources Planning and Managemen

Neuroendocrine consequences of childhood traumatic brain injury

OBJECTIVES: 1) To determine the prevalence, aetiology and clinical significance of pituitary dysfunction after moderate or severe childhood traumatic brain injury (TBI); and 2) to examine its impact on quality of life (QoL) and body composition.SUBJECTS: Retrospective observational study of 33 survivors of accidental TBI (27 males) and two of inflicted TBI (both males). Accidental TBI group: mean (SD) age at study was 13.4y (3.7y) and interval since injury, 4.1y (1.6y). King's Outcome Scale for Childhood Head Injury (KOSCHI) rating: 15 good recovery, 16 moderate disability, 2 severe disability. Inflicted TBI group: ages at study were 5.0 and 3.7 years at 4.9 and 3.3 years post-injury with good recovery and moderate disability respectively.METHODS: Early morning urine samples were obtained for osmolality. Basal hormone evaluation (0800-1 OOOh) was followed by the gonadotropin-relasing hormone (GnRH) and insulin tolerance (ITT, n=26) or glucagon tests (ifprevious seizures, n=9). Subjects were not primed. Body composition was evaluated using bioelectrical impedance analysis. Standardised quality of life (QoL) questionnaires were completed. Head injury details were extracted from patient records.RESULTS: There were no abnormal findings in the two survivors of inflicted TBI. Among the accidental TBI group, no subject had clinical evidence of impaired growth: mean height standard deviation score (SDS) was +0.5 (range -1.6 to +3.0 SD). Median peak growth hormone (GH) response to stimulation was 7.9 pg/L. Six peri-pubertal males had suboptimal GH responses (<5 pg/L). Their height SDS at study ranged from -1.5 to +1.4; one had slow growth on follow-up. GH response was borderline low in one post-pubertal male (3.2 pg/L).Median peak Cortisol responses were 538 nmol/L (ITT) and 562 nmol/L (glucagon). 9/25 (ITT) and 2/8 (glucagon) subjects had sub-optimal responses. In two cases (one ITT, one glucagon test), basal Cortisol levels were high (624 and 722 nmol/L). For the rest, in 6/9, further testing or no action was advised; in 3/9, steroid cover was recommended for moderate or severe illness or injury. None required routine glucocorticoid replacement. No subject had diabetes insipidus. Thyroid function, IGF-I, oestradiol/testosterone, and baseline and GnRH-stimulated LH and FSH were appropriate for age, sex and pubertal stage. One male was prolactin deficient (<50 mU/L).Abnormal endocrine findings were unrelated to severity of TBI, nature of primary or secondary brain injury, or KOSCHI rating. No significant difference in QoL was observed between those with normal or abnormal pituitary function <16y. QoL was poorer in the post-pubertal male with GH deficiency than in other subjects >16y.CONCLUSIONS: Whilst mild pituitary 'dysfunction' was common (39%), no unequivocal clinically significant endocrinopathies were found, although the GH and hypothalamopituitary-adrenal axes may be vulnerable

Mapping of Meteorological Drought Patterns using SPI and Different Interpolation Methods

Water Resources Planning and Managemen

Enhancement effects in polarimetric radar returns: Phase difference statistics

The probability density functions (pdfs) of the co- and cross-polarized phase differences are derived for backscatter from vegetation using the coherent and incoherent scattering theories. Unlike previous derivations, no assumptions or observations other than the applicability of the Central Limit Theorem (CLT), the low fractional volume of the medium, the reciprocity of the scatterers, and the azimuthal symmetry of the scatterer's orientation statistics are employed. Everything else follows logically via the mathematics. The difference between the coherent theory and the incoherent theory is referred to as the backscatter enhancement effect. The influence of this enhancement effect on the phase difference pdfs is examined and found to be important under combined conditions of scatterer anisotropy and appropriate reflection coefficient values

Comparison between Methods for Estimating Length of G.V.F. Curves in Mild Circular Open Channel with Experimental Length

Abstract- A gradually varied flow computation is important for the design of water structures. To design dimensions of channels, examining the depth of water in a gradually varied flow is required. In this study, experiments study were performed to evaluate different methods for calculating the lengths of gradually varied flow curves in mild slope circular open channel. The study was performed in a circular flume with an inner diameter equal to 24.40 cm with a mild slope equal to 0.00083 for different discharges from 2.38 l/sec to 14.08 l/sec. The objective of this study is to compare water surface profiles resulting from experimental measurements with the water surface profiles computed from graphical integration method), direct step method, and Runge-Kutta method for two gradually varied flow curves M3 and M2. The graphical integration method has a minimum percentage error of -0.18% and a maximum of -8.68% for M3 curves, while it has a minimum percentage error of 0.78% and a maximum of 8.37% for M2 curves. The direct step method has a minimum percentage error of 0.04% and a maximum of 9.34% for M3 curves while having a minimum percentage error of 0.91% and a maximum of 8.25 for curves M2 curves. For the Runge-Kutta method, the maximum error in water surface for all runs is -5.00% for M3 curves and 1.95% for M2 curves. The Runge-Kutta method perfectly fits in the circular channels