Accounting for among-sampler variability improves confidence in fuel moisture content field measurements

Background: Direct fuel moisture content measurements are critical for characterising spatio-temporal variations in fuel flammability and for informing fire danger assessments. However, among-sampler variability (systematic differences in measurements between samplers) likely contributes to fuel moisture measurement variability in most field campaigns. Aims: We assessed the magnitude of among-sampler variability in plot-scale Calluna vulgaris fuel moisture measurements. Methods: Seventeen individuals collected samples from six fuel layers hourly from 10:00 hours to 18:00 hours. We developed mixed effects models to estimate the among-sampler variability. Key results: Fuel moisture measurements were highly variable between individuals sampling within the same plot, fuel layer, and time of day. The importance of among-sampler variability in explaining total measured fuel moisture variance was fuel layer dependent. Among-sampler variability explained the greatest amount of measurement variation in litter (58%) and moss (45%) and was more important for live (19%) than dead (4%) Calluna. Conclusions: Both consideration of samplers within the experimental design and incorporation of sampler metadata during statistical analysis will improve understanding of spatio-temporal fuel moisture dynamics obtained from field-based studies. Implications: Accounting for among-sampler variability in fuel moisture campaigns opens opportunities to utilise sampling teams and citizen science research to examine fuel moisture dynamics over large spatio-temporal scales.</p

Ecohydrologically important subsurface structures in peatlands revealed by ground-penetrating radar and complex conductivity surveys.

The surface pattern of vegetation influences the composition and humification of peat laid down during the development of a bog, producing a subsurface hydrological structure that is expected to affect both the rate and pattern of water flow. Subsurface peat structures are routinely derived from the inspection of peat cores. However, logistical limits on the number of cores that can be collected means that the horizontal extent of these structures must be inferred. We consider whether subsurface patterns in peat physical properties can be mapped in detail over large areas with ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and complex conductivity by comparing geophysical measurements with peat core data along a 36 m transect through different microhabitats at Caribou Bog, Maine. The geophysical methods show promise. Peat horizons produced radar reflections because of changes in the volumetric moisture content. Although these reflections could not be directly correlated with the peat core data, they were related to the depth-averaged peat properties which varied markedly between the microhabitats. Well-decomposed peat below a hollow was characterized by a discontinuous sequence of chaotic wavy reflections, while distinct layering of the peat below an area of hummocks coincided with a pattern of parallel planar reflections. The complex conductivity survey showed spatial variation in the real and imaginary conductivities which resulted from changes in the pore water conductivity; peat structures may also have influenced the spatial pattern in the complex conductivity. The GPR and complex conductivity surveys enabled the developmental history of the different microhabitats along the studied transect to be inferred

Diverse response of shallow lake water levels to decadal weather patterns in a heterogeneous glacial Boreal Plains landscape

To examine the relative controls of landscape and climate on spatial variability, we measured water level dynamics of shallow lakes over two decades that represent both the heterogeneity of surficial geology classifications, and thus the potential range in surface and groundwater connectivity, and the long‐term weather patterns of the Boreal Plain hydrogeoclimatic setting. Large ranges in shallow lakes water levels (between 0.25 and 2 m) were observed corresponding to extremes in precipitation relative to the long‐term mean precipitation over the study period. We found low concurrence in water level dynamics among four detailed study lakes that received the same meteorological weather signal, but were located in different surficial geology texture classifications that incorporated important landscape parameters associated with lake water balance and storage. Surficial geology classification alone did not, however, distinguish between different ranges in lake water level measured in a broader synoptic survey of 26 lakes across the region. Thus, simple surficial geology classifications cannot alone be applied to classify Boreal Plain lake water level dynamics and other controls, notably landscape position, must also be considered. We further show that inter‐annual variability in lake water levels was significantly greater than seasonal variability in this hydrogeoclimatic setting. This emphasizes the need for studies of sufficient length to capture weather extremes that include periods of wetting and drying, and demonstrates how observed magnitudes of water level variability, and lake function, can be an artefact of study length and initiation date. These findings provide a foundation to test and calibrate conceptual understanding of the wider controls of lake water levels to form holistic frameworks to mitigate ecological and societal impacts due to hydrological changes under climate and anthropogenic disturbance within and between hydrogeoclimatic settings

Landscape controls on fuel moisture variability in fire-prone heathland and peatland landscapes

Background: Cross-landscape fuel moisture content is highly variable but not considered in existing fire danger assessments. Capturing fuel moisture complexity and its associated controls is critical for understanding wildfire behavior and danger in emerging fire-prone environments that are influenced by local heterogeneity. This is particularly true for temperate heathland and peatland landscapes that exhibit spatial differences in the vulnerability of their globally important carbon stores to wildfire. Here we quantified the range of variability in the live and dead fuel moisture of Calluna vulgaris across a temperate fire-prone landscape through an intensive fuel moisture sampling campaign conducted in the North Yorkshire Moors, UK. We also evaluated the landscape (soil texture, canopy age, aspect, and slope) and micrometeorological (temperature, relative humidity, vapor pressure deficit, and windspeed) drivers of landscape fuel moisture variability for temperate heathlands and peatlands for the first time. Results: We observed high cross-landscape fuel moisture variation, which created a spatial discontinuity in the availability of live fuels for wildfire spread (fuel moisture &lt; 65%) and vulnerability of the organic layer to smoldering combustion (fuel moisture &lt; 250%). This heterogeneity was most important in spring, which is also the peak wildfire season in these temperate ecosystems. Landscape and micrometeorological factors explained up to 72% of spatial fuel moisture variation and were season- and fuel-layer-dependent. Landscape factors predominantly controlled spatial fuel moisture content beyond modifying local micrometeorology. Accounting for direct landscape–fuel moisture relationships could improve fuel moisture estimates, as existing estimates derived solely from micrometeorological observations will exclude the underlying influence of landscape characteristics. We hypothesize that differences in soil texture, canopy age, and aspect play important roles across the fuel layers examined, with the main differences in processes arising between live, dead, and surface/ground fuels. We also highlight the critical role of fuel phenology in assessing landscape fuel moisture variations in temperate environments. Conclusions: Understanding the mechanisms driving fuel moisture variability opens opportunities to develop locally robust fuel models for input into wildfire danger rating systems, adding versatility to wildfire danger assessments as a management tool

Cross-country risk quantification of extreme wildfires in Mediterranean Europe.

We estimate the country-level risk of extreme wildfires defined by burned area (BA) for Mediterranean Europe and carry out a cross-country comparison. To this end, we avail of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) geospatial data from 2006 to 2019 to perform an extreme value analysis. More specifically, we apply a point process characterization of wildfire extremes using maximum likelihood estimation. By modeling covariates, we also evaluate potential trends and correlations with commonly known factors that drive or affect wildfire occurrence, such as the Fire Weather Index as a proxy for meteorological conditions, population density, land cover type, and seasonality. We find that the highest risk of extreme wildfires is in Portugal (PT), followed by Greece (GR), Spain (ES), and Italy (IT) with a 10-year BA return level of 50'338 ha, 33'242 ha, 25'165 ha, and 8'966 ha, respectively. Coupling our results with existing estimates of the monetary impact of large wildfires suggests expected losses of 162-439 million € (PT), 81-219 million € (ES), 41-290 million € (GR), and 18-78 million € (IT) for such 10-year return period events. SUMMARY: We model the risk of extreme wildfires for Italy, Greece, Portugal, and Spain in form of burned area return levels, compare them, and estimate expected losses

Diurnal fuel moisture content variations of live and dead Calluna vegetation in a temperate peatland

The increasing frequency and severity of UK wildfires, attributed in part to the effects of climate change, highlights the critical role of fuel moisture content (FMC) of live and dead vegetation in shaping wildfire behaviour. However, current models used to assess wildfire danger do not perform well in shrub-type fuels such as Calluna vulgaris, requiring in part an improved understanding of fuel moisture dynamics on diurnal and seasonal scales. To this end, 554 samples of upper live Calluna canopy, live Calluna stems, upper dead Calluna canopy, dead Calluna stems, moss, litter and organic layer (top 5 cm of organic material above mineral soil) were sampled hourly between 10:00 and 18:00 on seven days from March-August. Using a novel statistical method for investigating diurnal patterns, we found distinctive diurnal and seasonal trends in FMC for all fuel layers. Notably, significant diurnal patterns were evident in dead Calluna across nearly all sampled months, while diurnal trends in live Calluna canopy were pronounced in March, June, and August, coinciding with the peak occurrence of UK wildfires. In addition, the moisture content of moss and litter was found to fluctuate above and below their relative ignition thresholds throughout the day on some sampling days. These findings underscore the impact of diurnal FMC variations on wildfire danger during early spring and late summer in Calluna dominated peatlands and the need to consider such fluctuations in management and fire suppression strategies

Ebullition of methane from peatlands: Does peat act as a signal shredder?

Bubbling (ebullition) of greenhouse gases, particularly methane, from peatlands has been attributed to environmental forcings, such as changes in atmospheric pressure. However, observations from peat soils suggest that ebullition and environmental forcing may not always be correlated and that interactions between bubbles and the peat structure may be the cause of such decoupling. To investigate this possibility, we used a simple computer model (Model of Ebullition and Gas storAge) to simulate methane ebullition from a model peat. We found that lower porosity peat can store methane bubbles for lengthy periods of time, effectively buffering or moderating ebullition so that it no longer reflects bubble production signals. Our results suggest that peat structure may act as a “signal shredder” and needs to be taken into account when measuring and modeling ebullition

Birmingham Bog outdoor laboratory::potentials and possibilities for embedding field-based teaching within the undergraduate classroom

Providing cost-effective, hands-on field-based experiences to large cohorts of undergraduate students provides a core challenge for effective teaching and learning. This grand challenge is tackled through the construction of an exemplar outdoor learning environment within the Environmental Change Outdoor Laboratory (ECOLAB): Birmingham Bog (BB). Adjacent to the Geography building, the facility aims to produce a seamless, interconnected learning environment (in both space and time) that brings inaccessible fieldwork activities direct to the classroom at the time and frequency appropriate to the learning objectives. With the integration of this facility within a 3rd year undergraduate module, we explore through group interviews the ways in which BB adapted and influenced students’ engagement with lecture material, and the extent to which the approach can complement or replace current field based teaching activities. The group interviews identified how BB was considered an example of “effective learning” within the context of the wider degree programme. However, if confirmed, the value placed on residential field courses cannot be met by such campus experiences. Despite this, BB represents an increasingly fertile space for deeper stimulation and innovative ways of learning; diversifying pedagogical techniques and enabling students to re-engage with lecture content