Kinematics at the intersection of the Garlock and Death Valley fault zones, California: Integration of TM data and field studies. LANDSAT TM investigation proposal TM-019

Processing and interpretation of Thematic Mapper (TM) data, extensive field work, and processing of SPOT data were continued. Results of these analyses led to the testing and rejecting of several of the geologic/tectonic hypotheses concerning the continuation of the Garlock Fault Zone (GFZ). It was determined that the Death Valley Fault Zone (DVFZ) is the major through-going feature, extending at least 60 km SW of the Avawatz Mountains. Two 5 km wide fault zones were identified and characterized in the Soda and Bristol Mountains, forming a continuous zone of NW trending faulting. Geophysical measurements indicate a buried connection between the Avawatz and the Soda Mountains Fault Zone. Future work will involve continued field work and mapping at key locations, further analyses of TM data, and conclusion of the project

Kinematics at the intersection of the Garlock and Death Valley fault zones, California: Integration of TM data and field studies

The Garlock and Death Valley fault zones in SE California are two active strike-slip faults coming together on the east side of the Avawatz Mtns. The kinematics of this intersection, and the possible continuation of either fault zone, are being investigated using a combination of field mapping, and processing and interpretation of remotely sensed image data. Regional and local relationships are derivable from Thematic Mapper data (30 m resolution), including discrimination and relative age dating of alluvial fans, bedrock mapping, and fault mapping. Aircraft data provide higher spatial resolution over more limited areas. Hypotheses being considered are: (1) the Garlock fault extends east of the intersection; (2) the Garlock fault terminates at the intersection and the Death Valley fault continues southeastward; and (3) the Garlock fault has been offset right laterally by the Death Valley fault which continues to the southeast. Preliminary work indicates that the first hypothesis is invalid. From kinematic considerations, image analysis, and field work the third hypothesis is favored. The projected continuation of the Death Valley zone defines the boundary between the Mojave crustal block and the Basin and Range block

A SaTScan™ Macro Accessory for Cartography (SMAC) Package Implemented with SAS® Software

Background: SaTScan is a software program written to implement the scan statistic; it can be used to find clusters in space and/or time. It must often be run multiple times per day when doing disease surveillance. Running SaTScan frequently via its graphical user interface can be cumbersome, and the output can be difficult to visualize. Results: The SaTScan Macro Accessory for Cartography (SMAC) package consists of four SAS macros and was designed as an easier way to run SaTScan multiple times and add graphical output. The package contains individual macros which allow the user to make the necessary input files for SaTScan, run SaTScan, and create graphical output all from within SAS software. The macros can also be combined to do this all in one step. Conclusion: The SMAC package can make SaTScan easier to use and can make the output more informative

A SaTScan™ macro accessory for cartography (SMAC) package implemented with SAS(® )software

BACKGROUND: SaTScan is a software program written to implement the scan statistic; it can be used to find clusters in space and/or time. It must often be run multiple times per day when doing disease surveillance. Running SaTScan frequently via its graphical user interface can be cumbersome, and the output can be difficult to visualize. RESULTS: The SaTScan Macro Accessory for Cartography (SMAC) package consists of four SAS macros and was designed as an easier way to run SaTScan multiple times and add graphical output. The package contains individual macros which allow the user to make the necessary input files for SaTScan, run SaTScan, and create graphical output all from within SAS software. The macros can also be combined to do this all in one step. CONCLUSION: The SMAC package can make SaTScan easier to use and can make the output more informative

in silico Surveillance: evaluating outbreak detection with simulation models

Background Detecting outbreaks is a crucial task for public health officials, yet gaps remain in the systematic evaluation of outbreak detection protocols. The authors’ objectives were to design, implement, and test a flexible methodology for generating detailed synthetic surveillance data that provides realistic geographical and temporal clustering of cases and use to evaluate outbreak detection protocols. Methods A detailed representation of the Boston area was constructed, based on data about individuals, locations, and activity patterns. Influenza-like illness (ILI) transmission was simulated, producing 100 years ofin silico ILI data. Six different surveillance systems were designed and developed using gathered cases from the simulated disease data. Performance was measured by inserting test outbreaks into the surveillance streams and analyzing the likelihood and timeliness of detection. Results Detection of outbreaks varied from 21% to 95%. Increased coverage did not linearly improve detection probability for all surveillance systems. Relaxing the decision threshold for signaling outbreaks greatly increased false-positives, improved outbreak detection slightly, and led to earlier outbreak detection. Conclusions Geographical distribution can be more important than coverage level. Detailed simulations of infectious disease transmission can be configured to represent nearly any conceivable scenario. They are a powerful tool for evaluating the performance of surveillance systems and methods used for outbreak detection

Use of outcomes to evaluate surveillance systems for bioterrorist attacks

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Syndromic surveillance systems can potentially be used to detect a bioterrorist attack earlier than traditional surveillance, by virtue of their near real-time analysis of relevant data. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis using the area under the curve (AUC) as a comparison metric has been recommended as a practical evaluation tool for syndromic surveillance systems, yet traditional ROC curves do not account for timeliness of detection or subsequent time-dependent health outcomes.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using a decision-analytic approach, we predicted outcomes, measured in lives, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), and costs, for a series of simulated bioterrorist attacks. We then evaluated seven detection algorithms applied to syndromic surveillance data using outcomes-weighted ROC curves compared to simple ROC curves and timeliness-weighted ROC curves. We performed sensitivity analyses by varying the model inputs between best and worst case scenarios and by applying different methods of AUC calculation.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The decision analytic model results indicate that if a surveillance system was successful in detecting an attack, and measures were immediately taken to deliver treatment to the population, the lives, QALYs and dollars lost could be reduced considerably. The ROC curve analysis shows that the incorporation of outcomes into the evaluation metric has an important effect on the apparent performance of the surveillance systems. The relative order of performance is also heavily dependent on the choice of AUC calculation method.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study demonstrates the importance of accounting for mortality, morbidity and costs in the evaluation of syndromic surveillance systems. Incorporating these outcomes into the ROC curve analysis allows for more accurate identification of the optimal method for signaling a possible bioterrorist attack. In addition, the parameters used to construct an ROC curve should be given careful consideration.</p

Changing Groundwater Levels in the Sandstone Aquifers of Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin: Impacts on Available Water Supply

In 2014-15, the Illinois State Water Survey conducted their largest synoptic measurement of water levels (i.e., heads) in Cambrian-Ordovician sandstone wells since 1980. The study covered 33 counties in the northern half of Illinois where demands for water are satisfied, in part, by sandstone aquifers. The Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey also measured sandstone wells in 10 counties in southern Wisconsin. These observations were used to generate head contours of the sandstone aquifers. These contours provide insight into the direction and magnitude of groundwater flow. They also can be compared with historic measurements, providing insight into the impact of changing groundwater withdrawals through time. In predevelopment conditions, heads in the Cambrian-Ordovician sandstone aquifers were near or above land surface. Due to pumping from the sandstone aquifers, heads have decreased over time; this decrease is referred to as drawdown. In 2014, drawdown in northeastern Illinois was typically over 300 ft and exceeded 800 ft in the Joliet region. Three factors drove this large drawdown. First, demands for water from sandstone aquifers are much greater in northeastern Illinois than in the rest of the study region. Second, the sandstone aquifers are overlain by aquitards, which are low permeable materials that limit vertical infiltration of water. Third, the Sandwich Fault Zone limits water flowing into the sandstone aquifers of northeastern Illinois from the south. Heads near the center of the cone of depression continue to have a decreasing trend. The more severe drawdown in northeastern Illinois has resulted in local areas where heads have fallen below the top of the sandstone, known as desaturation. Desaturation of a sandstone aquifer can create a number of water quality and quantity concerns. The uppermost sandstone, the St. Peter, was observed to be partially desaturated in portions of Will, Kane, and Kendall Counties under non-pumping conditions. Other areas in these counties are at risk of desaturation under pumping conditions or with the installation of additional wells connecting the St. Peter to deeper, more heavily stressed sandstones. Simulations from a groundwater flow model indicate that the risk of desaturation will increase with increased future withdrawals. Despite the relatively small demand for water throughout much of central Illinois, heads have been declining since predevelopment, likely due to the shale overlying the sandstone. This shale serves as an aquitard, minimizing vertical infiltration of groundwater to the sandstone. Sustained drawdown in this region could potentially induce flow from the southern half of the state, where water in the sandstone is highly saline and not suitable as a drinking water supply. Drawdown in northwestern Illinois was also typically small (<100 ft), primarily due to two factors: 1) low demands from the sandstone aquifers and 2) the absence of shale aquitards. The notable exception is in Winnebago County, near Rockford, where demands are historically high and drawdown was on the order of 100-200 ft. While the quantity of water in the aquifer is not a concern in this region, large withdrawals could result in reductions of natural groundwater discharge to surface waters, impacting stream ecosystems under low flow conditions. Drawdown since predevelopment was over 300 ft in southeastern Wisconsin, with the greatest drawdown in Waukesha County of over 400 ft. Recent trends indicate heads in the Waukesha area are recovering, although they are still well below predevelopment levels. [This report is also associated with the fact sheets: Changing Groundwater Levels in the Cambrian-Ordovician Sandstone Aquifers of Northern Illinois, 1980-2014, Groundwater Availability in Northeastern Illinois from Deep Sandstone Aquifers, and Sources of Water for Communities in Northeastern Illinois.published or submitted for publicationis peer reviewedOpe

Canakinumab treatment for patients with active recurrent or chronic TNF receptor-associated periodic syndrome (TRAPS): An open-label, phase II study

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the efficacy of canakinumab, a high-affinity human monoclonal anti-interleukin-1β antibody, in inducing complete or almost complete responses in patients with active tumour necrosis factor receptor-associated periodic syndrome (TRAPS). METHODS: Twenty patients (aged 7-78 years) with active recurrent or chronic TRAPS were treated with canakinumab 150 mg every 4 weeks for 4 months (2 mg/kg for those ≤40 kg) in this open-label, proof-of-concept, phase II study. Canakinumab was then withdrawn for up to 5 months, with reintroduction on relapse, and 4 weekly administration (subsequently increased to every 8 weeks) for 24 months. The primary efficacy variable was the proportion of patients achieving complete or almost complete response at day 15, defined as clinical remission (Physician's Global Assessment score ≤1) and full or partial serological remission. RESULTS: Nineteen patients (19/20, 95%; 95% CI 75.1% to 99.9%) achieved the primary efficacy variable. Responses to canakinumab occurred rapidly; median time to clinical remission 4 days (95% CI 3 to 8 days). All patients relapsed after canakinumab was withdrawn; median time to relapse 91.5 days (95% CI 65 to 117 days). On reintroduction of canakinumab, clinical and serological responses were similar to those seen during the first phase, and were sustained throughout treatment. Canakinumab was well tolerated and clinical responses were accompanied by rapid and sustained improvement in health-related quality of life. Weight normalised pharmacokinetics of canakinumab, although limited, appeared to be consistent with historical canakinumab data. CONCLUSIONS: Canakinumab induces rapid disease control in patients with active TRAPS, and clinical benefits are sustained during long-term treatment

Secukinumab improves active psoriatic arthritis symptoms and inhibits radiographic progression: primary results from the randomised, double-blind, phase III FUTURE 5 study.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effect of subcutaneous (s.c.) secukinumab, an interleukin-17A inhibitor, on clinical signs and symptoms and radiographic progression in patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA). METHODS: Adults (n=996) with active PsA were randomised 2:2:2:3 to s.c. secukinumab 300 mg or 150 mg with loading dose (LD), 150 mg without LD or placebo. All groups received secukinumab or placebo at baseline, weeks 1, 2 and 3 and then every 4 weeks from week 4. The primary endpoint was the proportion of patients achieving an American College of Rheumatology 20 (ACR20) response at week 16. RESULTS: Significantly more patients achieved an ACR20 response at week 16 with secukinumab 300 mg with LD (62.6%), 150 mg with LD (55.5%) or 150 mg without LD (59.5%) than placebo (27.4%) (p CONCLUSION: S.c. secukinumab 300 mg and 150 mg with and without LD significantly improved clinical signs and symptoms and inhibited radiographic structural progression versus placebo at week 24 in patients with PsA. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02404350; Results