Estuarine Forecasts at Daily Weather to Subseasonal Time Scales

Most present forecast systems for estuaries predict conditions for only a few days into the future. However, there are many reasons to expect that skillful estuarine forecasts are possible for longer time periods, including increasingly skillful extended atmospheric forecasts, the potential for lasting impacts of atmospheric forcing on estuarine conditions, and the predictability of tidal cycles. In this study, we test whether skillful estuarine forecasts are possible for up to 35 days into the future by combining an estuarine model of Chesapeake Bay with 35-day atmospheric forecasts from an operational weather model. When compared with both a hindcast simulation from the same estuarine model and with observations, the estuarine forecasts for surface water temperature are skillful up to about 2 weeks into the future, and the forecasts for bottom temperature, surface and bottom salinity, and density stratification are skillful for all or the majority of the forecast period. Bottom oxygen forecasts are skillful when compared to the model hindcast, but not when compared with observations. We also find that skill for all variables in the estuary can be improved by taking the mean of multiple estuarine forecasts driven by an ensemble of atmospheric forecasts. Finally, we examine the forecasts in detail using two case studies of extreme events, and we discuss opportunities for improving the forecast skill

Statistically Downscaled North American Precipitation Using Support Vector Regression And The Big Brother Approach.

We implemented a hybrid downscaling model using classification and regression trees and support vector regression with evolutionary strategies to statistically downscale precipitation occurrences and amounts from 16 points across North America. All the selected points belong to different climate regions. In addition, to evaluate the downscaling model’s historical and future performances we used daily precipitation outputs (from a high resolution ~25km grid spacing global atmospheric model) as predictands, and coarsened versions of the same high-resolution outputs from the nearest nine gridpoints (interpolated to a ~100km grid), as predictors. This experimental setup, known as “Big-Brother” allows us to use the high-resolution (historical and future) model outputs as pseudo-observations so we can validate the downscaled values against them. The downscaled precipitation occurrences were evaluated in terms of historical and future Peirce Skill Score (PSS), while the downscaled precipitation amounts were evaluated in terms of mean absolute error skill score (MAE SS) to assess if the skills were time-invariant. Our results show that from the selected 16 points, those located west of the Rocky Mountains obtained the highest positive historical and future MAE SS; while the points near the northern part of the east coast also obtained positive scores but their scores were smaller in magnitude. These results contrast the negative or null skill scores obtained when downscaling to points located between the Rockies and the east coast. We also found that the CART model under predicted the total number of rainy days and might not be the most appropriate model for obtaining precipitation occurrences with this set of predictors. Future implementations will expand the predictor set aiming to improve the overall MAE SS

Dynamic nuclear polarization at the edge of a two-dimensional electron gas

We have used gated GaAs/AlGaAs heterostructures to explore nonlinear transport between spin-resolved Landau level (LL) edge states over a submicron region of two-dimensional electron gas (2DEG). The current I flowing from one edge state to the other as a function of the voltage V between them shows diode-like behavior---a rapid increase in I above a well-defined threshold V_t under forward bias, and a slower increase in I under reverse bias. In these measurements, a pronounced influence of a current-induced nuclear spin polarization on the spin splitting is observed, and supported by a series of NMR experiments. We conclude that the hyperfine interaction plays an important role in determining the electronic properties at the edge of a 2DEG.Comment: 8 pages RevTeX, 7 figures (GIF); submitted to Phys. Rev.

Have Aerosols Caused the Observed Atlantic Multidecadal Variability?

Identifying the prime drivers of the twentieth-century multidecadal variability in the Atlantic Ocean is crucial for predicting how the Atlantic will evolve in the coming decades and the resulting broad impacts on weather and precipitation patterns around the globe. Recently, Booth et al. showed that the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, Earth system configuration (HadGEM2-ES) closely reproduces the observed multidecadal variations of area-averaged North Atlantic sea surface temperature in the twentieth century. The multidecadal variations simulated in HadGEM2-ES are primarily driven by aerosol indirect effects that modify net surface shortwave radiation. On the basis of these results, Booth et al. concluded that aerosols are a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability. However, here it is shown that there are major discrepancies between the HadGEM2-ES simulations and observations in the North Atlantic upper-ocean heat content, in the spatial pattern of multidecadal SST changes within and outside the North Atlantic, and in the subpolar North Atlantic sea surface salinity. These discrepancies may be strongly influenced by, and indeed in large part caused by, aerosol effects. It is also shown that the aerosol effects simulated in HadGEM2-ES cannot account for the observed anticorrelation between detrended multidecadal surface and subsurface temperature variations in the tropical North Atlantic. These discrepancies cast considerable doubt on the claim that aerosol forcing drives the bulk of this multidecadal variability

Risk of myocarditis following sequential doses of COVID-19 vaccine and SARS-CoV-2 infection by age and sex

Myocarditis is more common after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection than after COVID-19 vaccination, but the risks in younger people and after sequential vaccine doses are less certain. METHODS: A self-controlled case series study of people ages 13 years or older vaccinated for COVID-19 in England between December 1, 2020, and December 15, 2021, evaluated the association between vaccination and myocarditis, stratified by age and sex. The incidence rate ratio and excess number of hospital admissions or deaths from myocarditis per million people were estimated for the 1 to 28 days after sequential doses of adenovirus (ChAdOx1) or mRNA-based (BNT162b2, mRNA-1273) vaccines, or after a positive SARS-CoV-2 test. RESULTS: In 42 842 345 people receiving at least 1 dose of vaccine, 21 242 629 received 3 doses, and 5 934 153 had SARS-CoV-2 infection before or after vaccination. Myocarditis occurred in 2861 (0.007%) people, with 617 events 1 to 28 days after vaccination. Risk of myocarditis was increased in the 1 to 28 days after a first dose of ChAdOx1 (incidence rate ratio, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.09–1.62]) and a first, second, and booster dose of BNT162b2 (1.52 [95% CI, 1.24–1.85]; 1.57 [95% CI, 1.28–1.92], and 1.72 [95% CI, 1.33–2.22], respectively) but was lower than the risks after a positive SARS-CoV-2 test before or after vaccination (11.14 [95% CI, 8.64–14.36] and 5.97 [95% CI, 4.54–7.87], respectively). The risk of myocarditis was higher 1 to 28 days after a second dose of mRNA-1273 (11.76 [95% CI, 7.25–19.08]) and persisted after a booster dose (2.64 [95% CI, 1.25–5.58]). Associations were stronger in men younger than 40 years for all vaccines. In men younger than 40 years old, the number of excess myocarditis events per million people was higher after a second dose of mRNA-1273 than after a positive SARS-CoV-2 test (97 [95% CI, 91–99] versus 16 [95% CI, 12–18]). In women younger than 40 years, the number of excess events per million was similar after a second dose of mRNA-1273 and a positive test (7 [95% CI, 1–9] versus 8 [95% CI, 6–8]). CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the risk of myocarditis is greater after SARS-CoV-2 infection than after COVID-19 vaccination and remains modest after sequential doses including a booster dose of BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine. However, the risk of myocarditis after vaccination is higher in younger men, particularly after a second dose of the mRNA-1273 vaccine

Vector boson pair production at the LHC

We present phenomenological results for vector boson pair production at the LHC, obtained using the parton-level next-to-leading order program MCFM. We include the implementation of a new process in the code, pp -> \gamma\gamma, and important updates to existing processes. We incorporate fragmentation contributions in order to allow for the experimental isolation of photons in \gamma\gamma, W\gamma, and Z\gamma production and also account for gluon-gluon initial state contributions for all relevant processes. We present results for a variety of phenomenological scenarios, at the current operating energy of \sqrt{s} = 7 TeV and for the ultimate machine goal, \sqrt{s} = 14 TeV. We investigate the impact of our predictions on several important distributions that enter into searches for new physics at the LHC.Comment: 35 pages, 14 figure

Complex exon-intron marking by histone modifications is not determined solely by nucleosome distribution

It has recently been shown that nucleosome distribution, histone modifications and RNA polymerase II (Pol II) occupancy show preferential association with exons (“exon-intron marking”), linking chromatin structure and function to co-transcriptional splicing in a variety of eukaryotes. Previous ChIP-sequencing studies suggested that these marking patterns reflect the nucleosomal landscape. By analyzing ChIP-chip datasets across the human genome in three cell types, we have found that this marking system is far more complex than previously observed. We show here that a range of histone modifications and Pol II are preferentially associated with exons. However, there is noticeable cell-type specificity in the degree of exon marking by histone modifications and, surprisingly, this is also reflected in some histone modifications patterns showing biases towards introns. Exon-intron marking is laid down in the absence of transcription on silent genes, with some marking biases changing or becoming reversed for genes expressed at different levels. Furthermore, the relationship of this marking system with splicing is not simple, with only some histone modifications reflecting exon usage/inclusion, while others mirror patterns of exon exclusion. By examining nucleosomal distributions in all three cell types, we demonstrate that these histone modification patterns cannot solely be accounted for by differences in nucleosome levels between exons and introns. In addition, because of inherent differences between ChIP-chip array and ChIP-sequencing approaches, these platforms report different nucleosome distribution patterns across the human genome. Our findings confound existing views and point to active cellular mechanisms which dynamically regulate histone modification levels and account for exon-intron marking. We believe that these histone modification patterns provide links between chromatin accessibility, Pol II movement and co-transcriptional splicing

Scattering AMplitudes from Unitarity-based Reduction Algorithm at the Integrand-level

SAMURAI is a tool for the automated numerical evaluation of one-loop corrections to any scattering amplitudes within the dimensional-regularization scheme. It is based on the decomposition of the integrand according to the OPP-approach, extended to accommodate an implementation of the generalized d-dimensional unitarity-cuts technique, and uses a polynomial interpolation exploiting the Discrete Fourier Transform. SAMURAI can process integrands written either as numerator of Feynman diagrams or as product of tree-level amplitudes. We discuss some applications, among which the 6- and 8-photon scattering in QED, and the 6-quark scattering in QCD. SAMURAI has been implemented as a Fortran90 library, publicly available, and it could be a useful module for the systematic evaluation of the virtual corrections oriented towards automating next-to-leading order calculations relevant for the LHC phenomenology.Comment: 35 pages, 7 figure

Does Lateral Transmission Obscure Inheritance in Hunter-Gatherer Languages?

In recent years, linguists have begun to increasingly rely on quantitative phylogenetic approaches to examine language evolution. Some linguists have questioned the suitability of phylogenetic approaches on the grounds that linguistic evolution is largely reticulate due to extensive lateral transmission, or borrowing, among languages. The problem may be particularly pronounced in hunter-gatherer languages, where the conventional wisdom among many linguists is that lexical borrowing rates are so high that tree building approaches cannot provide meaningful insights into evolutionary processes. However, this claim has never been systematically evaluated, in large part because suitable data were unavailable. In addition, little is known about the subsistence, demographic, ecological, and social factors that might mediate variation in rates of borrowing among languages. Here, we evaluate these claims with a large sample of hunter-gatherer languages from three regions around the world. In this study, a list of 204 basic vocabulary items was collected for 122 hunter-gatherer and small-scale cultivator languages from three ecologically diverse case study areas: northern Australia, northwest Amazonia, and California and the Great Basin. Words were rigorously coded for etymological (inheritance) status, and loan rates were calculated. Loan rate variability was examined with respect to language area, subsistence mode, and population size, density, and mobility; these results were then compared to the sample of 41 primarily agriculturalist languages in [1]. Though loan levels varied both within and among regions, they were generally low in all regions (mean 5.06%, median 2.49%, and SD 7.56), despite substantial demographic, ecological, and social variation. Amazonian levels were uniformly very low, with no language exhibiting more than 4%. Rates were low but more variable in the other two study regions, in part because of several outlier languages where rates of borrowing were especially high. High mobility, prestige asymmetries, and language shift may contribute to the high rates in these outliers. No support was found for claims that hunter-gatherer languages borrow more than agriculturalist languages. These results debunk the myth of high borrowing in hunter-gatherer languages and suggest that the evolution of these languages is governed by the same type of rules as those operating in large-scale agriculturalist speech communities. The results also show that local factors are likely to be more critical than general processes in determining high (or low) loan rates