Impact of the Equatorial Atlantic on the El Niño Southern Oscillation

Observations indicate that the Atlantic zonal mode influences El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific, as already suggested in previous studies. Here we demonstrate for the first time using partial coupled experiments that the Atlantic zonal mode indeed influences ENSO. The partial coupling experiments are performed by forcing the coupled general circulation model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) with observed sea surface temperature (SST) in the Tropical Atlantic, but with full air-sea coupling allowed in the Pacific and Indian Ocean. The ensemble mean of a five member simulation reproduces the observational results well. Analysis of observations, reanalysis, and coupled model simulations all indicate the following mechanism: SST anomalies associated with the Atlantic zonal mode affect the Walker Circulation, driving westward wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific during boreal summer. The wind stress anomalies increase the east-west thermocline slope and enhance the SST gradient across the Pacific; the Bjerknes positive feedback acts to amplify these anomalies favouring the development of a La Niña-like anomalies. The same mechanisms act for the cold phase of Atlantic zonal mode, but with opposite sign. In contrast to previous studies, the model shows that the influence on ENSO exists before 1970. Furthermore, no significant influence of the Tropical Atlantic on the Indian Monsoon precipitation is found in observation or model

Analogous seasonal evolution of the South Atlantic SST dipole indices

Two variants of sea-surface temperature (SST) dipole indices for the South Atlantic Ocean (SAO) has been previously described representing: (1) the South Atlantic subtropical dipole (SASD) supposedly peaking in austral summer and (2) the SAO dipole (SAOD) in winter. In this study, we present the analysis of observational data sets (1985–2014) showing the SASD and SAOD as largely constituting the same mode of ocean–atmosphere interaction reminiscent of the SAOD structure peaking in winter. Indeed, winter is the only season in which the inverse correlation between the northern and southern poles of both indices is statistically significant. The observed SASD and SAOD indices exhibit robust correlations (P ≤ 0.001) in all seasons and these are reproduced by 54 of the 63 different models of the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project analysed. Their robust correlations notwithstanding the SASD and SAOD indices appear to better capture different aspects of SAO climate variability and teleconnection

Modelling El Niño - Southern Oscillation

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest natural climate phenomenon on timescales from months to a few years. Sucessfully modelling and subsequently forecasting ENSO is still a challenge although significant progess has been made during the past decades. IFM-GEOMAR scientists developed a new model which is currently being tested for ENSO applications

On Sub-ENSO Variability

Multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) of surface zonal wind, sea surface temperature (SST), 20° isotherm depth, and surface zonal current observations (between 1990 and 2004) identifies three coupled ocean–atmosphere modes of variability in the tropical Pacific: the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the annual cycle, and a mode with a 14–18-month period, which is referred to as sub-ENSO in this study. The sub-ENSO mode accounts for the near 18-month (near annual) variability prior to (following) the 1997/98 El Niño event. It was strongest during this El Niño event, with SST anomalies exceeding 1°C. Sub-ENSO peak SST anomalies are ENSO-like in structure and are associated with eastward propagating heat content variations. However, the SST anomalies are preceded by and in near quadrature with relatively strong remotely forced westward propagating zonal current variations, suggesting the sub-ENSO mode arises from the zonal-advective feedback. The sub-ENSO mode is found to exist also in an intermediate complexity model (ICM) of the tropical Pacific. A heat budget analysis of the model’s sub-ENSO mode shows it indeed arises from the zonal-advective feedback. In the model, both ENSO and sub-ENSO modes coexist, but there is a weak nonlinear interaction between them. Experiments also show that the observed changes in sub-ENSO’s characteristics may be explained by changes in the relative importance of zonal and vertical advection SST tendencies

Understanding, modeling and predicting weather and climate extremes: Challenges and opportunities

Weather and climate extremes are identified as major areas necessitating further progress in climate research and have thus been selected as one of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Grand Challenges. Here, we provide an overview of current challenges and opportunities for scientific progress and cross-community collaboration on the topic of understanding, modeling and predicting extreme events based on an expert workshop organized as part of the implementation of the WCRP Grand Challenge on Weather and Climate Extremes. In general, the development of an extreme event depends on a favorable initial state, the presence of large-scale drivers, and positive local feedbacks, as well as stochastic processes. We, therefore, elaborate on the scientific challenges related to large-scale drivers and local-to-regional feedback processes leading to extreme events. A better understanding of the drivers and processes will improve the prediction of extremes and will support process-based evaluation of the representation of weather and climate extremes in climate model simulations. Further, we discuss how to address these challenges by focusing on short-duration (less than three days) and long-duration (weeks to months) extreme events, their underlying mechanisms and approaches for their evaluation and prediction