M2 growth in 1995: a return to normalcy?

A discussion of M2's demise as a reliable indicator of financial conditions in the economy, and a look at recent evidence suggesting that even though the aggregate has been behaving more normally over the past year or so, it is unlikely to regain its status as a key policy guide any time soon.Economic indicators ; Money supply

How does age affect baseline screening mammography performance measures? A decision model

Background: In order to promote consumer-oriented informed medical decision-making regarding screening mammography, we created a decision model to predict the age dependence of the cancer detection rate, the recall rate and the secondary performance measures (positive predictive values, total intervention rate, and positive biopsy fraction) for a baseline mammogram. Methods: We constructed a decision tree to model the possible outcomes of a baseline screening mammogram in women ages 35 to 65. We compared the single baseline screening mammogram decision with the no screening alternative. We used the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results national cancer database as the primary input to estimate cancer prevalence. For other probabilities, the model used population-based estimates for screening mammography accuracy and diagnostic mammography outcomes specific to baseline exams. We varied radiologist performance for screening accuracy. Results: The cancer detection rate increases from 1.9/1000 at age 40 to 7.2/1000 at age 50 to 15.1/ 1000 at age 60. The recall rate remains relatively stable at 142–157/1000, which varies from 73– 236/1000 at age 50 depending on radiologist performance. The positive predictive value of a screening mammogram increases from 1.3% at age 40 to 9.8% at age 60, while the positive predictive value of a diagnostic mammogram varies from 2.9% at age 40 to 19.2% at age 60. The model predicts the total intervention rate = 0.013*AGE2 - 0.67*AGE + 40, or 34/1000 at age 40 to 47/1000 at age 60. Therefore, the positive biopsy (intervention) fraction varies from 6% at age 40 to 32% at age 60. Conclusion: Breast cancer prevalence, the cancer detection rate, and all secondary screening mammography performance measures increase substantially with age

Results of a study of the stability of cointegrating relations comprised of broad monetary aggregates

There is strong evidence of a stable “money demand” relationship for MZM and M2 through the 1990s. Though the M2 relationship breaks down somewhere around 1990, evidence has been accumulating that the disturbance is well characterized as a permanent upward shift in M2 velocity that began around 1990 and was largely over by 1994. This paper’s results support the hypothesis that households permanently reallocated a portion of their wealth from time deposits to mutual funds. This reallocation may have been induced by depository restructuring, but it could also be explained by appropriately measured opportunity cost.Demand for money

Building the Holocene clinothem in the Gulf of Papua: An ocean circulation study

This paper investigates the role that tidal and wind-driven flows and buoyant river plumes play in the development of the Holocene clinothem in the Gulf of Papua. Time series data from bottom tripods and a mooring were obtained at four locations near the mouth of the Fly River during portions of 2003 and 2004. Flows in the Gulf of Papua during calendar year 2003 were hindcast every 3 h using the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) with boundary conditions from the Navy Atmospheric Prediction System, the east Asian seas implementation of NCOM, and the OTIS Tidal Inversion System. Results show that tidal flows on the modern clinoform are strong and are landward and seaward directed. Peak spring tidal velocities can provide the shear stresses necessary to keep sediment up to sand size in motion as the wind-driven and baroclinic currents distribute it from the river mouths across and along the shelf in two circulation states. During the monsoon season, the clinoform topset is swept by a seaward surface flow and landward bottom flow, reflecting river plumes and coastal upwelling. Seaward, this structure evolves into a SW directed surface current over the clinothem foreset with accompanying landward directed near-bed currents that trend obliquely up the foreset to the WSW over much of the clinothem. During the trade wind season, the inner and outer topset are swept by NE directed, contour-parallel surface currents, underneath which lie obliquely landward near-bed currents. These modeled flows and complex gyres in shallow water coupled with wave- and current-supported gravity flows or river floods can explain the form, internal clinoform shapes, and mineralogy of the modern Gulf of Papua clinothem

Comments on John D. Keen and James E. Keen, What is the point: will screening mammography save my life? BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making, 2009

This paper by John D. Keen and James E. Keen addresses a thorny subject. The numerical findings and commentaries in their paper will be disturbing to some readers and seem to defy logic and well established viewpoints. It may well generate angry letters to the editor. However such numerical analysis and reporting including civil discussion should be welcomed and are the basis for informed decision making – something that is highly needed in this field

Integrating group Delphi, fuzzy logic and expert systems for marketing strategy development:the hybridisation and its effectiveness

A hybrid approach for integrating group Delphi, fuzzy logic and expert systems for developing marketing strategies is proposed in this paper. Within this approach, the group Delphi method is employed to help groups of managers undertake SWOT analysis. Fuzzy logic is applied to fuzzify the results of SWOT analysis. Expert systems are utilised to formulate marketing strategies based upon the fuzzified strategic inputs. In addition, guidelines are also provided to help users link the hybrid approach with managerial judgement and intuition. The effectiveness of the hybrid approach has been validated with MBA and MA marketing students. It is concluded that the hybrid approach is more effective in terms of decision confidence, group consensus, helping to understand strategic factors, helping strategic thinking, and coupling analysis with judgement, etc