132 research outputs found

    Climate Change In The Casco Bay Watershed: Past, Present, And Future

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    This report describes how the climate of Casco Bay watershed in Maine has changed over the past century and how the future climate of the region is likely to be affected by human emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases that are warming the planet. Overall, the region has been getting warmer and wetter over the last century, and these trends have increased over the last four decades. To generate future projections for Portland, Farmington, and Lewiston, simulated temperature and precipitation from four climate models were fitted to local, long-term weather observations. Unknowns regarding fossil fuel consumption were accounted for by using two future scenarios. The scenarios describe climate in terms of temperature and precipitation for three future periods: the near-term, 2010-2039, mid-century, 2040-2069, and end-of-century, 2070-2099. All changes are relative to a historical baseline, 1970-1999. Some future changes are inevitable, so smart choices must be made to ensure our society and our environment will be able to adapt to coming change. But with prompt action, many of the most extreme consequences of climate change could be avoided or their worst impacts reduced

    Travel history and malaria infection risk in a low-transmission setting in Ethiopia: a case control study

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    BACKGROUND: Malaria remains the leading communicable disease in Ethiopia, with around one million clinical cases of malaria reported annually. The country currently has plans for elimination for specific geographic areas of the country. Human movement may lead to the maintenance of reservoirs of infection, complicating attempts to eliminate malaria. METHODS: An unmatched case–control study was conducted with 560 adult patients at a Health Centre in central Ethiopia. Patients who received a malaria test were interviewed regarding their recent travel histories. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to determine if reported travel outside of the home village within the last month was related to malaria infection status. RESULTS: After adjusting for several known confounding factors, travel away from the home village in the last 30 days was a statistically significant risk factor for infection with Plasmodium falciparum (AOR 1.76; p=0.03) but not for infection with Plasmodium vivax (AOR 1.17; p=0.62). Male sex was strongly associated with any malaria infection (AOR 2.00; p=0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Given the importance of identifying reservoir infections, consideration of human movement patterns should factor into decisions regarding elimination and disease prevention, especially when targeted areas are limited to regions within a country

    Research methods for subgrouping low back pain

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    <p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is considerable clinician and researcher interest in whether the outcomes for patients with low back pain, and the efficiency of the health systems that treat them, can be improved by 'subgrouping research'. Subgrouping research seeks to identify subgroups of people who have clinically important distinctions in their treatment needs or prognoses. Due to a proliferation of research methods and variability in how subgrouping results are interpreted, it is timely to open discussion regarding a conceptual framework for the research designs and statistical methods available for subgrouping studies (a method framework). The aims of this debate article are: (1) to present a method framework to inform the design and evaluation of subgrouping research in low back pain, (2) to describe method options when investigating prognostic effects or subgroup treatment effects, and (3) to discuss the strengths and limitations of research methods suitable for the hypothesis-setting phase of subgroup studies.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The proposed method framework proposes six phases for studies of subgroups: studies of assessment methods, hypothesis-setting studies, hypothesis-testing studies, narrow validation studies, broad validation studies, and impact analysis studies. This framework extends and relabels a classification system previously proposed by McGinn et al (2000) as suitable for studies of clinical prediction rules. This extended classification, and its descriptive terms, explicitly anchor research findings to the type of evidence each provides. The inclusive nature of the framework invites appropriate consideration of the results of diverse research designs. Method pathways are described for studies designed to test and quantify prognostic effects or subgroup treatment effects, and examples are discussed. The proposed method framework is presented as a roadmap for conversation amongst researchers and clinicians who plan, stage and perform subgrouping research.</p> <p>Summary</p> <p>This article proposes a research method framework for studies of subgroups in low back pain. Research designs and statistical methods appropriate for sequential phases in this research are discussed, with an emphasis on those suitable for hypothesis-setting studies of subgroups of people seeking care.</p

    Herbage nutritive value of binary- and multi-species swards relative to single-species swards in intensive silage systems

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    peer-reviewedThe nutritive value of sown binary- and multi-species grassland mixtures may differ from the values expected based on single-species swards of their constituent species. Field plots were established in a split-plot design to assess the nutritive value of binary- and multi-species mixtures compared to single-species swards of three grass species and red clover (RC) (Trifolium pratense L.) managed for intensive silage production. The nutritive value of grass–legume binary mixtures reflected the values of the constituent species grown on their own, and thus may be predicted from monoculture values. The relatively low digestibility (dry matter digestibility [DMD]) and crude protein (CP) content of the Italian ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum L.) sward compared to perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.) and timothy (Phleum pratense L.) suggests that it may have a limited role in binary- or multi-species swards. Herbage nutritive value in the multi-species swards (Mix 1: perennial ryegrass, timothy, RC and white clover [Trifolium repens L.]; Mix 2: perennial ryegrass, timothy, RC, ribwort plantain [Plantago lanceolata L.] and chicory [Cichorium intybus L.] ) appeared to be influenced more by the presence of legumes than herbs. Compared to perennial ryegrass, the multi-species swards had a slower rate of DMD decline prior to Cut 1, but subsequently had lower DMD values at the mid-season harvests. Both multi-species mixtures exhibited DMD, water-soluble carbohydrate (WSC) and CP values that would not have been predicted from their constituent species and thus need to be measured on herbage from field plots growing these mixtures

    Genome-Wide Association Study of Coronary Heart Disease and Its Risk Factors in 8,090 African Americans: The NHLBI CARe Project

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    Coronary heart disease (CHD) is the leading cause of mortality in African Americans. To identify common genetic polymorphisms associated with CHD and its risk factors (LDL- and HDL-cholesterol (LDL-C and HDL-C), hypertension, smoking, and type-2 diabetes) in individuals of African ancestry, we performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in 8,090 African Americans from five population-based cohorts. We replicated 17 loci previously associated with CHD or its risk factors in Caucasians. For five of these regions (CHD: CDKN2A/CDKN2B; HDL-C: FADS1-3, PLTP, LPL, and ABCA1), we could leverage the distinct linkage disequilibrium (LD) patterns in African Americans to identify DNA polymorphisms more strongly associated with the phenotypes than the previously reported index SNPs found in Caucasian populations. We also developed a new approach for association testing in admixed populations that uses allelic and local ancestry variation. Using this method, we discovered several loci that would have been missed using the basic allelic and global ancestry information only. Our conclusions suggest that no major loci uniquely explain the high prevalence of CHD in African Americans. Our project has developed resources and methods that address both admixture- and SNP-association to maximize power for genetic discovery in even larger African-American consortia

    Gene-centric approach identifies new and known loci for FVIII activity and VWF antigen levels in European Americans and African Americans: Genetic associations for FVIII:C and VWF:ag

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    Coagulation factor VIII and von Willebrand factor (VWF) are key proteins in procoagulant activation. Higher FVIII coagulant activity (FVIII:C) and VWF antigen (VWF:Ag) are risk factors for cardiovascular disease and venous thromboembolism. Beyond associations with ABO blood group, genetic determinants of FVIII and VWF are not well understood, especially in non European-American populations. We performed a genetic association study of FVIII:C and VWF:Ag that assessed 50,000 gene-centric single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 18,556 European Americans (EAs) and 5,047 African Americans (AAs) from five population-based cohorts. Previously unreported associations for FVIII:C were identified in both AAs and EAs with KNG1 (most significantly associated SNP rs710446, Ile581Thr, P=5.10 × 10−7 in EAs and P=3.88 × 10−3 in AAs) and VWF rs7962217 (Gly2705Arg, P=6.30 × 10−9 in EAs and P=2.98 × 10−2 in AAs). Significant associations for FVIII:C were also observed with F8/TMLHE region SNP rs12557310 in EAs (P=8.02 × 10−10), with VWF rs1800380 in AAs (P=5.62 × 10−11), and with MAT1A rs2236568 in AAs (P=1.69 × 10−6). We replicated previously reported associations of FVIII:C and VWF:Ag with the ABO blood group, VWF rs1063856 (Thr789Ala), rs216321 (Ala852Gln), and VWF rs2229446 (Arg2185Gln). Findings from this study expand our understanding of genetic influences for FVIII:C and VWF:Ag in both EAs and AAs

    Lessons in uncertainty quantification for turbulent dynamical systems

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    Genome-Wide Association Study of White Blood Cell Count in 16,388 African Americans: the Continental Origins and Genetic Epidemiology Network (COGENT)

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    Total white blood cell (WBC) and neutrophil counts are lower among individuals of African descent due to the common African-derived “null” variant of the Duffy Antigen Receptor for Chemokines (DARC) gene. Additional common genetic polymorphisms were recently associated with total WBC and WBC sub-type levels in European and Japanese populations. No additional loci that account for WBC variability have been identified in African Americans. In order to address this, we performed a large genome-wide association study (GWAS) of total WBC and cell subtype counts in 16,388 African-American participants from 7 population-based cohorts available in the Continental Origins and Genetic Epidemiology Network. In addition to the DARC locus on chromosome 1q23, we identified two other regions (chromosomes 4q13 and 16q22) associated with WBC in African Americans (P<2.5×10−8). The lead SNP (rs9131) on chromosome 4q13 is located in the CXCL2 gene, which encodes a chemotactic cytokine for polymorphonuclear leukocytes. Independent evidence of the novel CXCL2 association with WBC was present in 3,551 Hispanic Americans, 14,767 Japanese, and 19,509 European Americans. The index SNP (rs12149261) on chromosome 16q22 associated with WBC count is located in a large inter-chromosomal segmental duplication encompassing part of the hydrocephalus inducing homolog (HYDIN) gene. We demonstrate that the chromosome 16q22 association finding is most likely due to a genotyping artifact as a consequence of sequence similarity between duplicated regions on chromosomes 16q22 and 1q21. Among the WBC loci recently identified in European or Japanese populations, replication was observed in our African-American meta-analysis for rs445 of CDK6 on chromosome 7q21 and rs4065321 of PSMD3-CSF3 region on chromosome 17q21. In summary, the CXCL2, CDK6, and PSMD3-CSF3 regions are associated with WBC count in African American and other populations. We also demonstrate that large inter-chromosomal duplications can result in false positive associations in GWAS

    Genome-Wide Association Study of White Blood Cell Count in 16,388 African Americans: the Continental Origins and Genetic Epidemiology Network (COGENT)

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    Total white blood cell (WBC) and neutrophil counts are lower among individuals of African descent due to the common African-derived “null” variant of the Duffy Antigen Receptor for Chemokines (DARC) gene. Additional common genetic polymorphisms were recently associated with total WBC and WBC sub-type levels in European and Japanese populations. No additional loci that account for WBC variability have been identified in African Americans. In order to address this, we performed a large genome-wide association study (GWAS) of total WBC and cell subtype counts in 16,388 African-American participants from 7 population-based cohorts available in the Continental Origins and Genetic Epidemiology Network. In addition to the DARC locus on chromosome 1q23, we identified two other regions (chromosomes 4q13 and 16q22) associated with WBC in African Americans (P<2.5×10−8). The lead SNP (rs9131) on chromosome 4q13 is located in the CXCL2 gene, which encodes a chemotactic cytokine for polymorphonuclear leukocytes. Independent evidence of the novel CXCL2 association with WBC was present in 3,551 Hispanic Americans, 14,767 Japanese, and 19,509 European Americans. The index SNP (rs12149261) on chromosome 16q22 associated with WBC count is located in a large inter-chromosomal segmental duplication encompassing part of the hydrocephalus inducing homolog (HYDIN) gene. We demonstrate that the chromosome 16q22 association finding is most likely due to a genotyping artifact as a consequence of sequence similarity between duplicated regions on chromosomes 16q22 and 1q21. Among the WBC loci recently identified in European or Japanese populations, replication was observed in our African-American meta-analysis for rs445 of CDK6 on chromosome 7q21 and rs4065321 of PSMD3-CSF3 region on chromosome 17q21. In summary, the CXCL2, CDK6, and PSMD3-CSF3 regions are associated with WBC count in African American and other populations. We also demonstrate that large inter-chromosomal duplications can result in false positive associations in GWAS
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