Energy Crop Supply in France: A Min-Max Regret Approach

This paper attempts to estimate energy crop supply using an LP model comprising hundreds of representative farms of the arable cropping sector in France. In order to enhance the predictive ability of such a model and to provide an analytical tool useful to policy makers, interval linear programming (ILP) is used to formalise bounded rationality conditions. In the presence of uncertainty related to yields and prices it is assumed that the farmer minimises the distance from optimality once uncertainty resolves introducing an alternative criterion to the classic profit maximisation rationale. Model validation based on observed activity levels suggests that about 40% of the farms adopt the min-max regret criterion. Then energy crop supply curves, generated by the min-max regret model, are proved to be upward sloped alike classic LP supply curves.interval linear programming, min-max regret, energy crops, France, Crop Production/Industries, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, C61, D81, Q18,

Min-max regret versus gross margin maximization in arable sector modeling

"A sector model presented in this article, uses about 200 representative French cereal-oriented farms to estimate policy impacts by means of mathematical modeling. Usually, such models suppose that farmers intend to maximize expected gross margin. This rationality hypothesis however seems hardly justifiable, especially these days, when gross margin variability due to European Common Agricultural Policy changes may become significant. Increasing uncertainty introduces bounded rationality to the decision problem so that crop gross margins may be better approximated by interval rather than by expected (precise) values. The initial LP problem is specified as an “Interval Linear Programming (ILP)”. We assume that farmers tend to decide upon their surface allocation prudently in order to get through with minimum loss, which is precisely the rationale underlying the minimization of maximum regret decision criterion. Recent advances in operations research, namely Mausser and Laguna algorithms, are exploited to implement the min-max regret criterion to arable agriculture ILP. The validation against observed crop mix proved that as uncertainty increases about 40% of the farmers adopt the min-max regret decision rule instead of the gross margin maximization."Interval Linear Programming, Min-Max Regret, Common Agricultural Policy, Arable cropping, France

Conceptive Artificial Intelligence: Insights from design theory

The current paper offers a perspective on what we term conceptive intelligence - the capacity of an agent to continuously think of new object definitions (tasks, problems, physical systems, etc.) and to look for methods to realize them. The framework, called a Brouwer machine, is inspired by previous research in design theory and modeling, with its roots in the constructivist mathematics of intuitionism. The dual constructivist perspective we describe offers the possibility to create novelty both in terms of the types of objects and the methods for constructing objects. More generally, the theoretical work on which Brouwer machines are based is called imaginative constructivism. Based on the framework and the theory, we discuss many paradigms and techniques omnipresent in AI research and their merits and shortcomings for modeling aspects of design, as described by imaginative constructivism. To demonstrate and explain the type of creative process expressed by the notion of a Brouwer machine, we compare this concept with a system using genetic algorithms for scientific law discovery

10 Years of C-K Theory: A Survey on the Academic and Industrial Impacts of a Design Theory.

The goal of our research1 was to understand what is expected today from a design theory and what types of impact such type of scientific proposition may reach. To answer these questions with a grounded approach we chosed to study the developement of C-K theory as phenomenon per se that can inform our research work. C-K theory is clearly recognized as a design theory and it is a good representative of the level of generality and abstraction of contemporary design theory. Indeed, the validity of the theory as such has already been documented (e.g. Hatchuel & Weil 2002, 2003, 2008, 2009; Kazakçi 2009; Reich et al 2010; Le Masson et al 2010; Ullah et al 2012). Instead the current work sets out to understand the dissemination and the impact of the theory in both academic and industrial fields. The data collection overlooks the literature on C-K theory in English and in French, and includes interviews and feedbacks of students and industrial partners who applied C-K methodologies and tools. This research confirms the rapid diffusion and multiples impact of C-K theory. Beyond, such study signals that there are important expectations and potential impacts of a Design Theory within the field of knowledge at large. However there are strong conditions to meet these expectations: generality, generativity, and relatedness to contemporary sciences. A similar research could be done on Nam Suh's axiomatic approach to further test these conditions. It is impossible to say what will be the next generations of Design theory but it is sure that they should progress on these directions

Advancing an understanding of design cognition and design metacognition: Progress and prospects

In this article we review progress that has been made in advancing a theoretical understanding of design cognition and design metacognition. We identify a high level of consistency in empirical findings, including good evidence for core design strategies such as conjecture-based problem formulation, problem–solution co-evolution, analogical reasoning, mental simulation and fixated solution generation. A further consistent theme to emerge in our review concerns the central role played by metacognitive monitoring and control processes in ensuring the effective deployment of design strategies in response to designers' fluctuating feelings of uncertainty. We argue that a metacognitive perspective on design cognition is critical for developing a comprehensive understanding of strategic processing in design, additionally engendering many new avenues for important future research

Energy Crop Supply in France: A Min-Max Regret Approach

This paper attempts to estimate energy crop supply using an LP model comprising hundreds of representative farms of the arable cropping sector in France. In order to enhance the predictive ability of such a model and to provide an analytical tool useful to policy makers, interval linear programming (ILP) is used to formalise bounded rationality conditions. In the presence of uncertainty related to yields and prices it is assumed that the farmer minimises the distance from optimality once uncertainty resolves introducing an alternative criterion to the classic profit maximisation rationale. Model validation based on observed activity levels suggests that about 40% of the farms adopt the min-max regret criterion. Then energy crop supply curves, generated by the min-max regret model, are proved to be upward sloped alike classic LP supply curves