Strategic Long-Term Financial Risks: Single Risk Factors

The question of the measurement of strategic long-term financial risks is of considerable importance. Existing modelling instruments allow for a good measurement of market risks of trading books over relatively small time intervals. However, these approaches may have severe deficiencies if they are routinely applied to longer time periods. In this paper we give an overview on methodologies that can be used to model the evolution of risk factors over a one-year horizon. Different models are tested on financial time series data by performing backtesting on their expected shortfall prediction

The LAB@FUTURE Project - Moving Towards the Future of E-Learning

This paper presents Lab@Future, an advanced e-learning platform that uses novel Information and Communication Technologies to support and expand laboratory teaching practices. For this purpose, Lab@Future uses real and computer-generated objects that are interfaced using mechatronic systems, augmented reality, mobile technologies and 3D multi user environments. The main aim is to develop and demonstrate technological support for practical experiments in the following focused subjects namely: Fluid Dynamics - Science subject in Germany, Geometry - Mathematics subject in Austria, History and Environmental Awareness – Arts and Humanities subjects in Greece and Slovenia. In order to pedagogically enhance the design and functional aspects of this e-learning technology, we are investigating the dialogical operationalisation of learning theories so as to leverage our understanding of teaching and learning practices in the targeted context of deployment

The Contribution of Microbunching Instability to Solar Flare Emission in the GHz to THz Range of Frequencies

Recent solar flare observations in the sub-terahertz range have provided evidence of a new spectral component with fluxes increasing for larger frequencies, separated from the well-known microwave emission that maximizes in the gigahertz range. Suggested interpretations explain the terahertz spectral component but do not account for the simultaneous microwave component. We present a mechanism for producing the observed double spectra. Based on coherent enhancement of synchrotron emission at long wavelengths in laboratory accelerators, we consider how similar processes may occur within a solar flare. The instability known as microbunching arises from perturbations that produce electron beam density modulations, giving rise to broadband coherent synchrotron emission at wavelengths comparable to the characteristic size of the microbunch structure. The spectral intensity of this coherent synchrotron radiation (CSR) can far exceed that of the incoherent synchrotron radiation (ISR), which peaks at a higher frequency, thus producing a double-peaked spectrum. Successful CSR simulations are shown to fit actual burst spectral observations, using typical flaring physical parameters and power-law energy distributions for the accelerated electrons. The simulations consider an energy threshold below which microbunching is not possible because of Coulomb repulsion. Only a small fraction of the radiating charges accelerated to energies above the threshold is required to produce the microwave component observed for several events. The ISR/CSR mechanism can occur together with other emission processes producing the microwave component. It may bring an important contribution to microwaves, at least for certain events where physical conditions for the occurrence of the ISR/CSR microbunching mechanism are possible

Rapid pulsations in sub-THz solar bursts

A new solar burst emission spectral component has been found showing sub-THz fluxes increasing with frequency, spectrally separated from the well known microwave component. Rapid pulsations are found present in all events observed at the two frequencies of the solar submillimeter-wave telescope (SST): 212 and 405 GHz. They were studied in greater detail for three solar bursts exhibiting the new THz spectral component. The pulse amplitudes are of about 5-8% of the mean flux throughout the bursts durations, being comparable for both frequencies. Pulsations range from one pulse every few seconds to 8-10 per second. The pulse repetition rates (R) are linearly proportional to the mean burst fluxes (S), following the simple relationship S = k R, suggesting that the pulsations might be the response to discrete flare particle accelerator injections quantized in energy. Although this result is consistent with qualitative trends previously found in the GHz range, the pulse amplitude relative to the mean fluxes at the sub-THz frequencies appear to be nearly ten times smaller than expected from the extrapolation of the trends found in the GHz range. However there are difficulties to reconcile the nearly simultaneous GHz and THz burst emission spectrally separated components, exhibiting rapid pulsations with considerably larger relative intensities in the GHz range.Comment: 9 pages and 11 figures, submitted to Astrophys. J; Revised version accepted by ApJ on 4 March 200

L’expression de la destinée dans l’art

Dès 1959, avant son ouvrage fondamental de 1967, L’Expérience émotionnelle de l’espace, Pierre Kaufmann (1916-1995) définit très clairement un projet dont l’actualité est toujours aussi brûlante : en quoi les différents arts nous renvoient-ils une image, chaque fois différente, de notre destinée ?Even before his essential 1967 volume on “The emotional experience of space”, Kaufmann had already clearly delineated a project that remains a burning question today: how do various arts reflect an ever different image of our destiny?Im Jahre 1959, Pierre Kauffmann (1916-1995), vor der Publikation seines Grundwerkes : L’Expérience émotionnelle de l’espace, (1967), antwortet schon klar auf die folgende und sehr aktuelle Frage : wie die verschiedene Künste ein immer neues Bild unseres Schicksals uns wiedergeben können 

Episodic Reinforcement Learning in Finite MDPs: Minimax Lower Bounds Revisited

In this paper, we propose new problem-independent lower bounds on the sample complexity and regret in episodic MDPs, with a particular focus on the non-stationary case in which the transition kernel is allowed to change in each stage of the episode. Our main contribution is a novel lower bound of $\Omega((H^3SA/\epsilon^2)\log(1/\delta))$ on the sample complexity of an $(\varepsilon,\delta)$-PAC algorithm for best policy identification in a non-stationary MDP. This lower bound relies on a construction of "hard MDPs" which is different from the ones previously used in the literature. Using this same class of MDPs, we also provide a rigorous proof of the $\Omega(\sqrt{H^3SAT})$ regret bound for non-stationary MDPs. Finally, we discuss connections to PAC-MDP lower bounds

Fast Mid-IR Flashes Detected During Small Solar X-Ray Bursts

Solar observations in the mid-infrared 8-14 \mu\m band continuum were carried out with cadence of 5 frames per second, in December 2007. Rapid small heated sources, with typical duration of the order of seconds, were found on the bright plage-like areas around sunspots, in association with relatively weak GOES soft X-ray bursts. This work presents the analysis of fast mid-infrared flashes detected during a GOES B2.0-class event on 10 December 2007, beginning at about 10:40 UT. Rapid brightness temperature enhancements of 0.5 to 2.0 K were detected at the Earth by a microbolometer array, using a telescope with 10.5 cm diameter aperture producing a diffraction limited field-of-view of 25 arcsec. Minimum detectable temperature change was of 0.1 K. The corresponding fluxes are 30-130 solar flux units. At the solar surface the estimated rapid brightenings were of 50-150 KComment: 12 pages including 6 figures. Accepted by Solar Physics, April 201

Fixed-confidence guarantees for Bayesian best-arm identification

We investigate and provide new insights on the sampling rule called Top-Two Thompson Sampling (TTTS). In particular, we justify its use for fixed-confidence best-arm identification. We further propose a variant of TTTS called Top-Two Transportation Cost (T3C), which disposes of the computational burden of TTTS. As our main contribution, we provide the first sample complexity analysis of TTTS and T3C when coupled with a very natural Bayesian stopping rule, for bandits with Gaussian rewards, solving one of the open questions raised by Russo (2016). We also provide new posterior convergence results for TTTS under two models that are commonly used in practice: bandits with Gaussian and Bernoulli rewards and conjugate priors