Statistical issues in the assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources

Prior to his untimely death, my friend Dave Wood gave me wise counsel about how best to organize a paper describing uses of statistics in oil and gas exploration. A preliminary reconnaissance of the literature alerted me to the enormous range of topics that might be covered. Geology, geophysics with particular attention to seismology, geochemistry, petroleum engineering and petroleum economics--each of these disciplines plays an important role in petroleum exploration and each weaves statistical thinking into its fabric in a distinctive way. An exhaustive review would be book length. Dave and I agreed that a timely review paper of reasonable length would: (1) Illustrate the range of statistical thinking of oil and gas exploratists. (2) Concentrate on topics with statistical novelty, show how statistical thinking can lead to better decision making and let the reader now about important controversies that might be resolved by better use of statistical methods. (3) Focus on topics that are directly relevant to exploration decision making and resource estimation. In response to Dave's sensible suggestions, the Department of Interior's 1989 assessment of U.S. undiscovered oil and gas will be a tour map for a short trip through a large territory of statistical methods and applications. Were he here to review this review, I know that it would be better than it is.Supported in part by the MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF ADAPTIVE ONE-FACTOR-AT-A-TIME EXPERIMENTATION

ABSTRACT This paper considers the problem of achieving improvement

Passive remote sensing of tropospheric aerosol and atmospheric correction for the aerosol effect

The launch of ADEOS in August 1996 with POLDER, TOMS, and OCTS instruments on board and the future launch of EOS-AM 1 in mid-1998 with MODIS and MISR instruments on board start a new era in remote sensing of aerosol as part of a new remote sensing of the whole Earth system (see a list of the acronyms in the Notation section of the paper). These platforms will be followed by other international platforms with unique aerosol sensing capability, some still in this century (e.g., ENVISAT in 1999). These international spaceborne multispectral, multiangular, and polarization measurements, combined for the first time with international automatic, routine monitoring of aerosol from the ground, are expected to form a quantum leap in our ability to observe the highly variable global aerosol. This new capability is contrasted with present single-channel techniques for AVHRR, Meteosat, and GOES that although poorly calibrated and poorly characterized already generated important aerosol global maps and regional transport assessments. The new data will improve significantly atmospheric corrections for the aerosol effect on remote sensing of the oceans and be used to generate first real-time atmospheric corrections over the land. This special issue summarizes the science behind this change in remote sensing, and the sensitivity studies and applications of the new algorithms to data from present satellite and aircraft instruments. Background information and a summary of a critical discussion that took place in a workshop devoted to this topic is given in this introductory paper. In the discussion it was concluded that the anticipated remote sensing of aerosol simultaneously from several space platforms with different observation strategies, together with continuous validations around the world, is expected to be of significant importance to test remote sensing approaches to characterize the complex and highly variable aerosol field. So far, we have only partial understanding of the information content and accuracy of the radiative transfer inversion of aerosol information from the satellite data, due to lack of sufficient theoretical analysis and applications to proper field data. This limitation will make the anticipated new data even more interesting and challenging. A main concern is the present inadequate ability to sense aerosol absorption, from space or from the ground. Absorption is a critical parameter for climate studies and atmospheric corrections. Over oceans, main concerns are the effects of white caps and dust on the correction scheme. Future improvement in aerosol retrieval and atmospheric corrections will require better climatology of the aerosol properties and understanding of the effects of mixed composition and shape of the particles. The main ingredient missing in the planned remote sensing of aerosol are spaceborne and ground-based lidar observations of the aerosol profiles

Obesity, race/ethnicity and life course socioeconomic status across the transition from adolescence to adulthood

Differences in the association of socioeconomic status (SES) with obesity may underlie racial/ethnic disparities in obesity that increase dramatically across the transition to adulthood in the US

Spitzer Analysis of HII Region Complexes in the Magellanic Clouds: Determining a Suitable Monochromatic Obscured Star Formation Indicator

HII regions are the birth places of stars, and as such they provide the best measure of current star formation rates (SFRs) in galaxies. The close proximity of the Magellanic Clouds allows us to probe the nature of these star forming regions at small spatial scales. We aim to determine the monochromatic IR band that most accurately traces the bolometric IR flux (TIR), which can then be used to estimate an obscured SFR. We present the spatial analysis, via aperture/annulus photometry, of 16 LMC and 16 SMC HII region complexes using the Spitzer IRAC and MIPS bands. UV rocket data and SHASSA H-alpha data are also included. We find that nearly all of the LMC and SMC HII region SEDs peak around 70um, from ~10 to ~400 pc from the central sources. As a result, the sizes of HII regions as probed by 70um is approximately equal to the sizes as probed by TIR (about 70 pc in radius); the radial profile of the 70um flux, normalized by TIR, is constant at all radii (70um ~ 0.45 TIR); the 1-sigma standard deviation of the 70um fluxes, normalized by TIR, is a lower fraction of the mean (0.05 to 0.12 out to ~220 pc) than the normalized 8, 24, and 160um normalized fluxes (0.12 to 0.52); and these results are invariant between the LMC and SMC. From these results, we argue that 70um is the most suitable IR band to use as a monochromatic obscured star formation indicator because it most accurately reproduces the TIR of HII regions in the LMC and SMC and over large spatial scales. We also explore the general trends of the 8, 24, 70, and 160um bands in the LMC and SMC HII region SEDs, radial surface brightness profiles, sizes, and normalized (by TIR) radial flux profiles. We derive an obscured SFR equation that is modified from the literature to use 70um luminosity, SFR(Mo/yr) = 9.7(0.7)x10^{-44} L(70)(ergs/s), which is applicable from 10 to 300 pc distance from the center of an HII region.Comment: 21 pages, 12 figures, 4 tables. Will be published in ApJ

Intergenerational Profiles of Socioeconomic (Dis)advantage and Obesity During the Transition to Adulthood

Investigations of socioeconomic status (SES) and health during the transition to adulthood in the United States are complicated by the later and more varied transitions in residence, employment, schooling, and social roles compared with previous generations. Parental SES is an important influence during adolescence but cannot sufficiently capture the SES of the independent young adult. Typical, single SES indicators based on income or education likely misclassify the SES of young adults who have not yet completed their education or other training, or who have entered the labor force early with ultimately lower status attainment. We use a latent class analysis (LCA) framework to characterize five intergenerational SES groups, combining multidimensional SES information from two time points—that is, adolescent (parental) and young adult (self) SES data. Associations of these groups with obesity, a high-risk health outcome in young adults, revealed nuanced relationships not seen using traditional intergenerational SES measures. In males, for example, a middle-class upbringing in adolescence and continued material advantage into adulthood was associated with nearly as high obesity as a working poor upbringing and early, detrimental transitions. This intergenerational typology of early SES exposure facilitates understanding of SES and health during young adulthood

hnRNPA2 Mediated Acetylation Reduces Telomere Length in Response to Mitochondrial Dysfunction

Telomeres protect against chromosomal damage. Accelerated telomere loss has been associated with premature aging syndromes such as Werner’s syndrome and Dyskeratosis Congenita, while, progressive telomere loss activates a DNA damage response leading to chromosomal instability, typically observed in cancer cells and senescent cells. Therefore, identifying mechanisms of telomere length maintenance is critical for understanding human pathologies. In this paper we demonstrate that mitochondrial dysfunction plays a causal role in telomere shortening. Furthermore, hnRNPA2, a mitochondrial stress responsive lysine acetyltransferase (KAT) acetylates telomere histone H4at lysine 8 of (H4K8) and this acetylation is associated with telomere attrition. Cells containing dysfunctional mitochondria have higher telomere H4K8 acetylation and shorter telomeres independent of cell proliferation rates. Ectopic expression of KAT mutant hnRNPA2 rescued telomere length possibly due to impaired H4K8 acetylation coupled with inability to activate telomerase expression. The phenotypic outcome of telomere shortening in immortalized cells included chromosomal instability (end-fusions) and telomerase activation, typical of an oncogenic transformation; while in non-telomerase expressing fibroblasts, mitochondrial dysfunction induced-telomere attrition resulted in senescence. Our findings provide a mechanistic association between dysfunctional mitochondria and telomere loss and therefore describe a novel epigenetic signal for telomere length maintenance

A Study of Heating and Cooling of the ISM in NGC 1097 with Herschel-PACS and Spitzer-IRS

NGC 1097 is a nearby Seyfert 1 galaxy with a bright circumnuclear starburst ring, a strong large-scale bar and an active nucleus. We present a detailed study of the spatial variation of the far infrared (FIR) [CII]158um and [OI]63um lines and mid-infrared H2 emission lines as tracers of gas cooling, and of the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) bands as tracers of the photoelectric heating, using Herschel-PACS, and Spitzer-IRS infrared spectral maps. We focus on the nucleus and the ring, and two star forming regions (Enuc N and Enuc S). We estimated a photoelectric gas heating efficiency ([CII]158um+[OI]63um)/PAH in the ring about 50% lower than in Enuc N and S. The average 11.3/7.7um PAH ratio is also lower in the ring, which may suggest a larger fraction of ionized PAHs, but no clear correlation with [CII]158{\mu}m/PAH(5.5 - 14um) is found. PAHs in the ring are responsible for a factor of two more [CII]158um and [OI]63um emission per unit mass than PAHs in the Enuc S. SED modeling indicates that at most 25% of the FIR power in the ring and Enuc S can come from high intensity photodissociation regions (PDRs), in which case G0 ~ 10^2.3 and nH ~ 10^3.5 cm^-3 in the ring. For these values of G0 and nH PDR models cannot reproduce the observed H2 emission. Much of the the H2 emission in the starburst ring could come from warm regions in the diffuse ISM that are heated by turbulent dissipation or shocks.Comment: 17 pages, 14 figures, 5 tables; accepted for publication in Ap

Assessment of the revised Difficulties in Emotion Regulation Scales among adolescents and adults with severe mental illness

The Difficulties in Emotion Regulation Scale (DERS) comprising 36 items has been widely used across age, gender, psychopathology, language, and culture. Recently several alternative abridged forms have been introduced, namely, the DERS-16 (Bjureberg et al. 2016), the DERS-SF (Kaufman et al. 2016), and the DERS-18 (Victor and Klonsky, 2016), each composed of 16 or 18 items, to provide researchers and clinicians with a shorter measure of emotion dysregulation. However, no study to date has directly compared the psychometrics of these alternative forms. In the present study, using confirmatory factor analysis we first examined the factor structure of the four models of the DERS in two inpatient samples of 636 adolescents in the age-range of 12–17 years (M = 15.33, SD = 1.43), and 1807 adults in the age-range of 18–76 years (M = 34.86, SD = 14.63) with severe mental illness. Next, measurement invariance was tested comparing the two age groups across the four models of DERS. Only the DERS-SF established metric and scalar measurement invariance. Findings suggest that the factor structure of the original and the abridged models of DERS have acceptable fit, however only DERS-SF had equivalence of factor loadings and item intercepts across adolescents and adults

Early rheumatoid arthritis is characterized by a distinct and transient synovial fluid cytokine profile of T cell and stromal cell origin

Pathological processes involved in the initiation of rheumatoid synovitis remain unclear. We undertook the present study to identify immune and stromal processes that are present soon after the clinical onset of rheumatoid arthritis ( RA) by assessing a panel of T cell, macrophage, and stromal cell related cytokines and chemokines in the synovial fluid of patients with early synovitis. Synovial fluid was aspirated from inflamed joints of patients with inflammatory arthritis of duration 3 months or less, whose outcomes were subsequently determined by follow up. For comparison, synovial fluid was aspirated from patients with acute crystal arthritis, established RA and osteoarthritis. Rheumatoid factor activity was blocked in the synovial fluid samples, and a panel of 23 cytokines and chemokines measured using a multiplex based system. Patients with early inflammatory arthritis who subsequently developed RA had a distinct but transient synovial fluid cytokine profile. The levels of a range of T cell, macrophage and stromal cell related cytokines ( e. g. IL-2, IL-4, IL-13, IL-17, IL-15, basic fibroblast growth factor and epidermal growth factor) were significantly elevated in these patients within 3 months after symptom onset, as compared with early arthritis patients who did not develop RA. In addition, this profile was no longer present in established RA. In contrast, patients with non-rheumatoid persistent synovitis exhibited elevated levels of interferon-gamma at initiation. Early synovitis destined to develop into RA is thus characterized by a distinct and transient synovial fluid cytokine profile. The cytokines present in the early rheumatoid lesion suggest that this response is likely to influence the microenvironment required for persistent RA