Intensification of very wet monsoon seasons in India under global warming

Rainfall-intense summer monsoon seasons on the Indian subcontinent that are exceeding long-term averages cause widespread floods and landslides. Here we show that the latest generation of coupled climate models robustly project an intensification of very rainfall-intense seasons (June–September). Under the shared socioeconomic pathway SSP5-8.5, very wet monsoon seasons as observed in only 5 years in the period 1965–2015 are projected to occur 8 times more often in 2050–2100 in the multi-model average. Under SSP2-4.5, these seasons become only a factor of 6 times more frequent, showing that even modest efforts to mitigate climate change can have a strong impact on the frequency of very strong rainfall seasons. Besides, we find that the increasing risk of extreme seasonal rainfall is accompanied by a shift from days with light rainfall to days with moderate or heavy rainfall. Additionally, the number of wet days is projected to increase. © 2022. The Authors

Robust increase of Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability under future warming in CMIP6 models

The Indian summer monsoon is an integral part of the global climate system. As its seasonal rainfall plays a crucial role in India's agriculture and shapes many other aspects of life, it affects the livelihood of a fifth of the world's population. It is therefore highly relevant to assess its change under potential future climate change. Global climate models within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) indicated a consistent increase in monsoon rainfall and its variability under global warming. Since the range of the results of CMIP5 was still large and the confidence in the models was limited due to partly poor representation of observed rainfall, the updates within the latest generation of climate models in CMIP6 are of interest. Here, we analyze 32 models of the latest CMIP6 exercise with regard to their annual mean monsoon rainfall and its variability. All of these models show a substantial increase in June-to-September (JJAS) mean rainfall under unabated climate change (SSP5-8.5) and most do also for the other three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways analyzed (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0). Moreover, the simulation ensemble indicates a linear dependence of rainfall on global mean temperature with a high agreement between the models independent of the SSP if global warming is the dominant forcing of the monsoon dynamics as it is in the 21st century; the multi-model mean for JJAS projects an increase of 0.33 mm d−1 and 5.3 % per kelvin of global warming. This is significantly higher than in the CMIP5 projections. Most models project that the increase will contribute to the precipitation especially in the Himalaya region and to the northeast of the Bay of Bengal, as well as the west coast of India. Interannual variability is found to be increasing in the higher-warming scenarios by almost all models. The CMIP6 simulations largely confirm the findings from CMIP5 models, but show an increased robustness across models with reduced uncertainties and updated magnitudes towards a stronger increase in monsoon rainfall

Pathways of Understanding: the Interactions of Humanity and Global Environmental Change

How humans, interacting within social systems, affect and are affected by global change is explored. Recognizing the impact human activities have on the environment and responding to the need to document the interactions among human activities, the Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) commissioned a group of 12 scientists to develop a framework illustrating the key human systems that contribute to global change. This framework, called the Social Process Diagram, will help natural and social scientists, educators, resource managers and policy makers envision and analyze how human systems interact among themselves and with the natural system. The Social Process Diagram consists of the following blocks that constitute the Diagram's structural framework: (1) fund of knowledge and experience; (2) preferences and expectations; (3) factors of production and technology; (4) population and social structure; (5) economic systems; (6) political systems and institutions; and (7) global scale environmental processes. To demonstrate potential ways the Diagram can be used, this document includes 3 hypothetical scenarios of global change issues: global warming and sea level rise; the environmental impact of human population migration; and energy and the environment. These scenarios demonstrate the Diagram's usefulness for visualizing specific processes that might be studied to evaluate a particular global change issues. The scenario also shows that interesting and unanticipated questions may emerge as links are explored between categories on the Diagram

Aspen Global Change Institute Summer Science Sessions

The Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) successfully organized and convened six interdisciplinary meetings over the course of award NNG04GA21G. The topics of the meetings were consistent with a range of issues, goals and objectives as described within the NASA Earth Science Enterprise Strategic Plan and more broadly by the US Global Change Research Program/Our Changing Planet, the more recent Climate Change Program Strategic Plan and the NSF Pathways report. The meetings were chaired by two or more leaders from within the disciplinary focus of each session. 222 scholars for a total of 1097 participants-days were convened under the auspices of this award. The overall goal of each AGCI session is to further the understanding of Earth system science and global environmental change through interdisciplinary dialog. The format and structure of the meetings allows for presentation by each participant, in-depth discussion by the whole group, and smaller working group and synthesis activities. The size of the group is important in terms of the group dynamics and interaction, and the ability for each participant's work to be adequately presented and discussed within the duration of the meeting, while still allowing time for synthesi

Variation in upper thermal tolerance among 19 species from temperate wetlands

Communities usually possess a multitude of interconnected trophic interactions within food webs. Their regulation generally depends on a balance between bottom-up and top-down effects. However, if sensitivity to temperature varies among species, rising temperatures may change trophic interactions via direct and indirect effects. We examined the critical thermal maximum (CTmax) of 19 species from temperate wetlands (insect predators, amphibian larvae, zooplankton and amphipods) and determined if they vary in their sensitivity to warming temperatures. CTmax differed between the groups, with predatory insects having higher CTmax than amphibians (both herbivorous larval anurans and predatory larval salamanders), amphipods and zooplankton. In a scenario of global warming, these differences in thermal tolerance may affect top-down and bottom-up processes, particularly considering that insect predators are more likely to maintain or improve their performance at higher temperatures, which could lead to increased predation rates on the herbivores in the food web. Further studies are needed to understand how the energy flows through communities, how species’ energy budgets may change and whether other physiological and behavioral responses (such as phenotypic plasticity and thermoregulation) can buffer or increase these changes in the top-down regulation of wetland food webs.U.S. National Science Foundation 0716149Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación CGL2009-12767-C02-02Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad CGL201240246C0201, CGL2017-86924-

The Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership: An Example of Science Applied to Societal Needs

Northern Eurasia, the largest landmass in the northern extratropics, accounts for ~20% of the global land area. However, little is known about how the biogeochemical cycles, energy and water cycles, and human activities specific to this carbon-rich, cold region interact with global climate. A major concern is that changes in the distribution of land-based life, as well as its interactions with the environment, may lead to a self-reinforcing cycle of accelerated regional and global warming. With this as its motivation, the Northern Eurasian Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) was formed in 2004 to better understand and quantify feedbacks between northern Eurasian and global climates. The first group of NEESPI projects has mostly focused on assembling regional databases, organizing improved environmental monitoring of the region, and studying individual environmental processes. That was a starting point to addressing emerging challenges in the region related to rapidly and simultaneously changing climate, environmental, and societal systems. More recently, the NEESPI research focus has been moving toward integrative studies, including the development of modeling capabilities to project the future state of climate, environment, and societies in the NEESPI domain. This effort will require a high level of integration of observation programs, process studies, and modeling across disciplines

Clash of Titans: A MUSE dynamical study of the extreme cluster merger SPT-CL J0307-6225

We present MUSE spectroscopy, Megacam imaging, and Chandra X-ray emission for SPT-CL J0307-6225, a z = 0.58 major merging galaxy cluster with a large BCG-SZ centroid separation and a highly disturbed X-ray morphology. The galaxy density distribution shows two main overdensities with separations of 0.144 and 0.017 arcmin to their respective BCGs. We characterize the central regions of the two colliding structures, namely 0307-6225N and 0307-6225S, finding velocity derived masses of M200, N = 2.44 ± 1.41 × 1014M⊙ and M200, S = 3.16 ± 1.88 × 1014M⊙, with a line-of-sight velocity difference of |Δv| = 342 km s-1. The total dynamically derived mass is consistent with the SZ derived mass of 7.63 h70-1 ± 1.36 × 1014M⊙. We model the merger using the Monte Carlo Merger Analysis Code, estimating a merging angle of 36+14-12 ° with respect to the plane of the sky. Comparing with simulations of a merging system with a mass ratio of 1:3, we find that the best scenario is that of an ongoing merger that began 0.96+0.31-0.18 Gyr ago. We also characterize the galaxy population using Hδand [O ii] λ3727 Å lines. We find that most of the emission-line galaxies belong to 0307-6225S, close to the X-ray peak position with a third of them corresponding to red-cluster sequence galaxies, and the rest to blue galaxies with velocities consistent with recent periods of accretion. Moreover, we suggest that 0307-6225S suffered a previous merger, evidenced through the two equally bright BCGs at the centre with a velocity difference of ∼674 km s-1

Tiered Approach to Resilience Assessment

Regulatory agencies have long adopted a three-tier framework for risk assessment. We build on this structure to propose a tiered approach for resilience assessment that can be integrated into the existing regulatory processes. Comprehensive approaches to assessing resilience at appropriate and operational scales, reconciling analytical complexity as needed with stakeholder needs and resources available, and ultimately creating actionable recommendations to enhance resilience are still lacking. Our proposed framework consists of tiers by which analysts can select resilience assessment and decision support tools to inform associated management actions relative to the scope and urgency of the risk and the capacity of resource managers to improve system resilience. The resilience management framework proposed is not intended to supplant either risk management or the many existing efforts of resilience quantification method development, but instead provide a guide to selecting tools that are appropriate for the given analytic need. The goal of this tiered approach is to intentionally parallel the tiered approach used in regulatory contexts so that resilience assessment might be more easily and quickly integrated into existing structures and with existing policies

Correlation of IDH1 Mutation with Clinicopathologic Factors and Prognosis in Primary Glioblastoma: A Report of 118 Patients from China

It has been reported that IDH1 (IDH1R132) mutation was a frequent genomic alteration in grade II and grade III glial tumors but rare in primary glioblastoma (pGBM). To elucidate the frequency of IDH1 mutation and its clinical significance in Chinese patients with pGBM, one hundred eighteen pGBMs were assessed by pyro-sequencing for IDH1 mutation status, and the results were correlated with clinical characteristics and molecular pathological factors. IDH1 mutations were detected in 19/118 pGBM cases (16.1%). Younger age, methylated MGMT promoter, high expression of mutant P53 protein, low expression of Ki-67 or EGFR protein were significantly correlated with IDH1 mutation status. Most notably, we identified pGBM cases with IDH1 mutation were mainly involved in the frontal lobe when compared with those with wild-type IDH1. In addition, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed a highly significant association between IDH1 mutation and a better clinical outcome (p = 0.026 for progression-free survival; p = 0.029 for overall survival). However, in our further multivariable regression analysis, the independent prognostic effect of IDH1 mutation is limited when considering age, preoperative KPS score, extent of resection, TMZ chemotherapy, and Ki-67 protein expression levels, which might narrow its prognostic power in Chinese population in the future