The XMM Cluster Survey: Forecasting cosmological and cluster scaling-relation parameter constraints

We forecast the constraints on the values of sigma_8, Omega_m, and cluster scaling relation parameters which we expect to obtain from the XMM Cluster Survey (XCS). We assume a flat Lambda-CDM Universe and perform a Monte Carlo Markov Chain analysis of the evolution of the number density of galaxy clusters that takes into account a detailed simulated selection function. Comparing our current observed number of clusters shows good agreement with predictions. We determine the expected degradation of the constraints as a result of self-calibrating the luminosity-temperature relation (with scatter), including temperature measurement errors, and relying on photometric methods for the estimation of galaxy cluster redshifts. We examine the effects of systematic errors in scaling relation and measurement error assumptions. Using only (T,z) self-calibration, we expect to measure Omega_m to +-0.03 (and Omega_Lambda to the same accuracy assuming flatness), and sigma_8 to +-0.05, also constraining the normalization and slope of the luminosity-temperature relation to +-6 and +-13 per cent (at 1sigma) respectively in the process. Self-calibration fails to jointly constrain the scatter and redshift evolution of the luminosity-temperature relation significantly. Additional archival and/or follow-up data will improve on this. We do not expect measurement errors or imperfect knowledge of their distribution to degrade constraints significantly. Scaling-relation systematics can easily lead to cosmological constraints 2sigma or more away from the fiducial model. Our treatment is the first exact treatment to this level of detail, and introduces a new `smoothed ML' estimate of expected constraints.Comment: 28 pages, 17 figures. Revised version, as accepted for publication in MNRAS. High-resolution figures available at http://xcs-home.org (under "Publications"

CMB-S4

We describe the stage 4 cosmic microwave background ground-based experiment CMB-S4

Very early lineage-specific chimerism after reduced intensity stem cell transplantation is highly predictive of clinical outcome for patients with myeloid disease.

BACKGROUND The importance of chimerism status in the very early period after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation is unclear. We determined PBMC and T-cell donor chimerism 50 days after transplantation and related this to disease relapse and overall survival. METHODS 144 sequential patients underwent transplantation of which 90 had AML/MDS and 54 had lymphoma. 'Full donor chimerism' was defined as ≥99% donor cells and three patient groups were defined: 40% with full donor chimerism (FC) in both PBMC and T-cells; 25% with mixed chimerism (MC) within both compartments and 35% with 'split' chimerism (SC) characterised by full donor chimerism within PBMC and mixed chimerism within T-cells. RESULTS In patients with myeloid disease a pattern of mixed chimerism (MC) was associated with a one year relapse rate of 45% and a five year overall survival of 40% compared to values of 8% and 75%, and 17% and 60%, for those with SC or FC respectively. The pattern of chimerism had no impact on clinical outcome for lymphoma. CONCLUSION The pattern of lineage-specific chimerism at 50 days after transplantation is highly predictive of clinical outcome for patients with myeloid malignancy and may help to guide subsequent clinical management

Iron X-ray Transmission at Temperature Near 150 eV Using the National Ignition Facility: First Measurements and Paths to Uncertainty Reduction

Discrepancies exist between theoretical and experimental opacity data for iron, at temperatures 180⁻195 eV and electron densities near 3 × 1022/cm3, relevant to the solar radiative-convective boundary. Another discrepancy, between theory and helioseismic measurements of the boundary’s location, would be ameliorated if the experimental opacity is correct. To address these issues, this paper details the first results from new experiments under development at the National Ignition Facility (NIF), using a different method to replicate the prior experimental conditions. In the NIF experiments, 64 laser beams indirectly heat a plastic-tamped rectangular iron-magnesium sample inside a gold cavity. Another 64 beams implode a spherical plastic shell to produce a continuum X-ray flash which backlights the hot sample. An X-ray spectrometer records the transmitted X-rays, the unattenuated X-rays passing around the sample, and the sample’s self-emission. From these data, X-ray transmission spectra are inferred, showing Mg K-shell and Fe L-shell X-ray transitions from plasma at a temperature of ~150 eV and electron density of ~8 × 1021/cm3. These conditions are similar to prior Z measurements which agree better with theory. The NIF transmission data show statistical uncertainties of 2⁻10%, but various systematic uncertainties must be addressed before pursuing quantitative comparisons. The paths to reduction of the largest uncertainties are discussed. Once the uncertainty is reduced, future NIF experiments will probe higher temperatures (170⁻200 eV) to address the ongoing disagreement between theory and Z data