Radar observability of near-Earth objects using EISCAT 3D

Radar observations can be used to obtain accurate orbital elements for near-Earth objects (NEOs) as a result of the very accurate range and range rate measureables. These observations allow the prediction of NEO orbits further into the future and also provide more information about the properties of the NEO population. This study evaluates the observability of NEOs with the EISCAT 3D 233 MHz 5 MW high-power, large-aperture radar, which is currently under construction. Three different populations are considered, namely NEOs passing by the Earth with a size distribution extrapolated from fireball statistics, catalogued NEOs detected with ground-based optical telescopes and temporarily captured NEOs, i.e. mini-moons. Two types of observation schemes are evaluated, namely the serendipitous discovery of unknown NEOs passing the radar beam and the post-discovery tracking of NEOs using a priori orbital elements. The results indicate that 60-1200 objects per year, with diameters D > 0.01 m, can be discovered. Assuming the current NEO discovery rate, approximately 20 objects per year can be tracked post-discovery near the closest approach to Earth. Only a marginally smaller number of tracking opportunities are also possible for the existing EISCAT ultra-high frequency (UHF) system. The mini-moon study, which used a theoretical population model, orbital propagation, and a model for radar scanning, indicates that approximately seven objects per year can be discovered using 8 %-16% of the total radar time. If all mini-moons had known orbits, approximately 80-160 objects per year could be tracked using a priori orbital elements. The results of this study indicate that it is feasible to perform routine NEO post-discovery tracking observations using both the existing EISCAT UHF radar and the upcoming EISCAT 3D radar. Most detectable objects are within 1 lunar distance (LD) of the radar. Such observations would complement the capabilities of the more powerful planetary radars that typically observe objects further away from Earth. It is also plausible that EISCAT 3D could be used as a novel type of an instrument for NEO discovery, assuming that a sufficiently large amount of radar time can be used. This could be achieved, for example by time-sharing with ionospheric and space-debris-observing modes.Peer reviewe

Multi-instrument observations of the Pajala fireball: Origin, characteristics, and atmospheric implications

Meteor observations provide information about Solar System constituents and their influx onto Earth, their interaction processes in the atmosphere, as well as the neutral dynamics of the upper atmosphere. This study presents optical, radar, and infrasound measurements of a daytime fireball that occurred on 4 December 2020 at 13:30 UTC over Northeast Sweden. The fireball was recorded with two video cameras, allowing a trajectory determination to be made. The orbital parameters are compatible with the Northern Taurid meteor shower. The dynamic mass estimate based on the optical trajectory was found to be 0.6–1.7 kg, but this estimate can greatly vary from the true entry mass significantly due to the assumptions made. The meteor trail plasma was observed with an ionosonde as a sporadic E-like ionogram trace that lasted for 30 min. Infrasound emissions were detected at two sites, having propagation times consistent with a source location at an altitude of 80–90 km. Two VHF specular meteor radars observed a 6 minute long non-specular range spread trail echo as well as a faint head echo. Combined interferometric range-Doppler analysis of the meteor trail echoes at the two radars, allowed estimation of the mesospheric horizontal wind altitude profile, as well as tracking of the gradual deformation of the trail over time due to a prevailing neutral wind shear. This combined analysis indicates that the radar measurements of long-lived non-specular range-spread meteor trails produced by larger meteoroids can be used to measure the meteor radiant by observing the line traveled by the meteor. Furthermore, a multistatic meteor radar observation of these types of events can be used to estimate mesospheric neutral wind altitude profiles

Multi-instrument observations of the Pajala fireball: origin, characteristics, and atmospheric implications

Meteor observations provide information about Solar System constituents and their influx onto Earth, their interaction processes in the atmosphere, as well as the neutral dynamics of the upper atmosphere. This study presents optical, radar, and infrasound measurements of a daytime fireball that occurred on 4 December 2020 at 13:30 UTC over Northeast Sweden. The fireball was recorded with two video cameras, allowing a trajectory determination to be made. The orbital parameters are compatible with the Northern Taurid meteor shower. The dynamic mass estimate based on the optical trajectory was found to be 0.6–1.7 kg, but this estimate can greatly vary from the true entry mass significantly due to the assumptions made. The meteor trail plasma was observed with an ionosonde as a sporadic E-like ionogram trace that lasted for 30 min. Infrasound emissions were detected at two sites, having propagation times consistent with a source location at an altitude of 80–90 km. Two VHF specular meteor radars observed a 6 minute long non-specular range spread trail echo as well as a faint head echo. Combined interferometric range-Doppler analysis of the meteor trail echoes at the two radars, allowed estimation of the mesospheric horizontal wind altitude profile, as well as tracking of the gradual deformation of the trail over time due to a prevailing neutral wind shear. This combined analysis indicates that the radar measurements of long-lived non-specular range-spread meteor trails produced by larger meteoroids can be used to measure the meteor radiant by observing the line traveled by the meteor. Furthermore, a multistatic meteor radar observation of these types of events can be used to estimate mesospheric neutral wind altitude profiles

Meteorer och Celestial Dynamik : Association och Numerisk analys

We have developed a skeleton version of a new toolbox for statistical small body dynamics in the Solar system. The propagation parts of the software include perturbations from all major planets, radiation pressure and the Poynting–Robertson effect. Currently, the software is constructed to generate clones of parent bodies taking into account uncertainties in observational parameters and the parent body characteristics. To then sample this distribution in a Monte Carlo fashion. These bodies then release test particles using sublimation models. The parent bodies as well as the particle generation process are described by multivariate probability distributions. In our current usage, the distribution represented orbital elements, critical sublimation radius, density, size and surface activity. The software designed to integrate the released particles over a given time scale and examine close encounters with another body in the solar system. We have examined close encounters with the Earth. We have also created module for calculating orbital similarity functions and to find associations and classifications in data sets. This toolbox is entirely modular enabling the use of every step individually.Validation is performed by simulating known and observed meteor showers, we have simulated the 1933 and 1946 October Draconids as validation, and extended the simulations to the 2011 and 2012 October Draconids. The simulation was performed by ejecting material from comet 21P/Giacobini–Zinner during seven perihelion passages between 1866 and 1972 and propagating the material forward in time. Each perihelion passage was sampled with 50 orbital clones that produced meteoroid streams. In total 850 clones were propagated. The clones were sampled from a multidimensional Gaussian distribution on the orbital elements with width proportional to the given uncertainties. These orbital clones were then sampled from normal distributions on the bulk density, surface activity factor, cometary mass and critical sublimation distance from the Sun, with characteristic values from measurements of 21P/Giacobini–Zinner. Each clone ejected 8,000 particles, each with an individual weight proportional to the mass loss (number of meteoroids) they represented. This generated a total of 6.7 million test particles, out of which 43 thousand entered the Earth's Hill sphere during 1900-2020 and were considered encounters. Using the simulation we produced the unexpected and measured deviation of the meteor mass index from a power low in the 2012 October Draconids, a feature not present in the 2011 October Draconids. We also predict a October Draconids outburst in 2018 with peak on the night between October 8 and 9 that should be larger than the 2011 and 2012 outbursts. Lastly we present some analysis as a proof of concept for the future development of this toolbox.Validerat; 20160809 (global_studentproject_submitter

Från meteorer till rymdlägesbild : dynamiska modeller och radarmätningar av rymdobjekt

Every day the Earth's atmosphere is bombarded by 10-200 metric tons of dust-sized particles and larger pieces of material from space called meteoroids. Dust and meteoroids come from parent bodies such as comets and asteroids, which are remnants from the formation of the solar system. In addition to natural objects, geospace contains artificial satellites and space debris that needs to be monitored to reduce the risk of collisions. Studies of all these kinds of space objects form a cross-disciplinary research field that stretches from meteors to space safety.  The primary goal of this thesis has been to rigorously connect measurements and their uncertainties with high-level analysis and dynamical simulations of distributions. An automated radar data analysis algorithm was developed for meteor head echo measurements. The analysis algorithm is able to produce realistic uncertainties for each individual meteor event, including the meteoroid orbit. Many of the resulting probability distributions are non-Gaussian, which needs to be accounted for. The analysis algorithm was applied to interferometric high-power large-aperture MU radar data in a case study on high altitude meteors. The study found that 74 out of 106,000 meteors appeared higher than 130 km and a few confirmed detections reached up to 150 km altitude. Comet 21P/Giacobini–Zinner is the parent body of the meteoroid stream giving rise to the October Draconid meteor shower. The meteoroid stream was simulated accounting for parent body orbital uncertainties to estimate meteor shower parameters. The simulation was able to model the unexpected mass distribution observed in the 2011 and 2012 October Draconids. It also successfully predicted a meteor outburst in 2018. Further, methods to reduce the computation time of meteoroid stream simulations using importance sampling were derived and implemented on a test model. EISCAT radar measurements were performed to study space debris from the Kosmos-1408 satellite, which had been destroyed and fragmented in orbit on 15 November, 2021. A novel method to estimate the size distribution of debris objects was developed. Data from two EISCAT radars were used to demonstrate a new initial orbit determination technique, yielding good agreement with known catalogue orbits. Finally, the detectability of near-Earth objects (NEOs) with the EISCAT~3D radar currently under construction was simulated. It was predicted that as many as seven temporarily captured NEOs, i.e. minimoons, could be discovered per year depending on the amount of allocated observation time. The predictions also show that hundreds of NEOs could be tracked yearly to improve their orbits

High-altitude meteors detected by the interferometric MU radar

We have re-analysed part of the middle and upper atmosphere (MU) radar meteor head echo data set collected during 2009–2010 and confirmed the existence of a rare high-altitude radar meteor population reaching up to ∼150 km altitude. The number of detections decreases significantly as a function of initial altitude. Out of the total amount of 106 000 events, 74 had an initial altitude >130 km while four of those had an initial altitude >145 km. High-altitude radar meteor observations have been reported before, e.g. using the EISCAT VHF radar and the Jicamarca Radio Observatory. The main novelty of this study is that the observations were performed using methods that render the final data set unambiguous in direction of arrival together with rigorously tested analysis routines that were validated by noisy raw data simulations. Due to our experimental set-up the maximum detectable range was limited to 148 km. Hence, we cannot confirm or deny the existence of radar meteors above that altitude

Radar analysis algorithm for determining meteor head echo parameter probability distributions

We present an automated radar data analysis algorithm developed to calculate probability distributions of meteor- and meteoroid parameters for head echoes detected with the Middle and Upper atmosphere (MU) radar in Shigaraki, Japan. The algorithm utilizes direct Monte Carlo simulations of uncertainties, with Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo estimation of meteor model parameters and N-body propagation of distributions to perform orbit determination. The implementation has been validated using raw data simulations and a comparison with previous analysis methods. The concepts are applicable on a wide range of possible head echo measurements with other radar systems. The generated probability distributions provide quantitative reliability, which enables improved statistical studies and investigating the origins of detected meteoroids. The methodology section is highly detailed in order for the methods to be reproducible and provide a solid reference foundation for future studies. One such study is presented in a companion paper called ‘High-altitude meteors detected by the interferometric MU radar’