Global, Regional, and National Progress Towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for Neonatal and Child Health: All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality Findings From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival. Methods We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index. Findings Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3–74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2–41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8–29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3–19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05–10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27–6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53–4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06–2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71–0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27–1·58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1·87 million (95% UI 1·35–2·58; 37% [95% UI 32–43]) of 5·05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier. Interpretation Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve U5MR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress

Using intervention mapping to develop a home-based parental-supervised toothbrushing intervention for young children

BACKGROUND: Dental caries in young children is a major public health problem impacting on the child and their family in terms of pain, infection and substantial financial burden on healthcare funders. In the UK, national guidance on the prevention of dental caries advises parents to supervise their child's brushing with fluoride toothpaste until age 7. However, there is a dearth of evidence-based interventions to encourage this practice in parents. The current study used intervention mapping (IM) to develop a home-based parental-supervised toothbrushing intervention to reduce dental caries in young children. METHODS: The intervention was developed using the six key stages of the IM protocol: (1) needs assessment, including a systematic review, qualitative interviews, and meetings with a multi-disciplinary intervention development group; (2) identification of outcomes and change objectives following identification of the barriers to parental-supervised toothbrushing (PSB), mapped alongside psychological determinants outlined in the Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF); (3) selection of methods and practical strategies; (4) production of a programme plan; (5) adoption and implementation and (6) Evaluation. RESULTS: The comprehensive needs assessment highlighted key barriers to PSB, such as knowledge, skills, self-efficacy, routine setting and behaviour regulation and underlined the importance of individual, social and structural influences. Parenting skills (routine setting and the ability to manage the behaviour of a reluctant child) were emphasised as critical to the success of PSB. The multi-disciplinary intervention development group highlighted the need for both universal and targeted programmes, which could be implemented within current provision. Two intervention pathways were developed: a lower cost universal pathway utilising an existing national programme and an intensive targeted programme delivered via existing parenting programmes. A training manual was created to accompany each intervention to ensure knowledge and standardise implementation procedures. CONCLUSIONS: PSB is a complex behaviour and requires intervention across individual, social and structural levels. IM, although a time-consuming process, allowed us to capture this complexity and allowed us to develop two community-based intervention pathways covering both universal and targeted approaches, which can be integrated into current provision. Further research is needed to evaluate the acceptability and sustainability of these interventions

Outcomes in randomised controlled trials in prevention and management of carious lesions:a systematic review

Abstract Background Inconsistent outcome reporting is one significant hurdle to combining results from trials into systematic reviews. Core outcome sets (COS) can reduce this barrier. The aim of this review was to map outcomes reported in caries prevention and management randomised controlled trials (RCT) as a first step to COS development. We also investigated RCT characteristics and reporting of primary outcomes and sample size calculations. Methods PubMed, Embase, Web of Knowledge and Cochrane CENTRAL were systematically searched (1 January 1968 to 25 August 2015). Inclusion criteria: RCTs comparing any technique for prevention or management of caries with another or placebo and RCTs comparing interventions to support patients undergoing treatment of caries (without setting, dentition or age restrictions). Categories were developed through piloting and group consensus and outcomes grouped accordingly. Results Of 4773 search results, 764 were potentially relevant, full text was available for 731 papers and 605 publications met the inclusion criteria and were included. For all outcomes across the time periods 1968–1980 and 2001–2010, reporting of outcome ‘caries experience’ reduced from 39% to 18%; ‘clinical performance of the restoration’ reporting increased from 33% to 42% although there was a reduction to 22% in 2011–2015. Emerging outcome domains include ‘lesion activity’ and ‘pulp health-related outcomes’, accounting for 1% and 0%, respectively, during 1968–1980 and 10% and 4% for 2011–2015. Reporting ‘resource efficiency’ and ‘quality of life measures’ have remained at a low level. No publications reported tooth survival independent of an index such as DMFT or equivalent. Primary outcomes were only identified as such in 414 (68%) of the reports. Conclusions Over the past 50 years, outcome reporting for trials on prevention and management of carious lesions have tended to focus on outcomes measuring caries experience and restoration material clinical performance with lesion activity and cost-effectiveness increasingly being reported. Patient-reported and patient-focused outcomes are becoming more common (although as secondary outcomes) but remain low in use. The challenge with developing a COS will be balancing commonly previously reported outcomes against those more relevant for the future. Trial registration PROSPERO, CRD42015025310 . Registered on 14 August 2015, Trials (Schwendicke et al., Trials 16:397, 2015) and COMET initiative online (COMET, 2017)

The quality of childbirth care in China: women’s voices: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND: In the context of improved utilisation of health care and outcomes, rapid socio-economic development and health system reform in China, it is timely to consider the quality of services. Data on quality of maternal health care as experienced by women is limited. This study explores women's expectations and experiences of the quality of childbirth care in rural China. METHODS: Thirty five semi-structured interviews and five focus group discussions were conducted with 69 women who had delivered in the past 12 months in hospitals in a rural County in Anhui Province. Data were transcribed, translated and analysed using the framework approach. RESULTS: Hospital delivery was preferred because it was considered safe. Home delivery was uncommon and unsupported by the health system. Expectations such as having skilled providers and privacy during childbirth were met. However, most women reported lack of cleanliness, companionship during labour, pain relief, and opportunity to participate in decision making as poor aspects of care. Absence of pain relief is one reason why women may opt for a caesarean section. CONCLUSIONS: These findings illustrate that to improve quality of care it is crucial to build accountability and communication between providers, women and their families. Ensuring women's participation in decision making needs to be addressed

National mortality burden due to communicable, non-communicable, and other diseases in Ethiopia, 1990–2015: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background: Ethiopia lacks a complete vital registration system that would assist in measuring disease burden and risk factors. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk factors 2015 (GBD 2015) estimates to describe the mortality burden from communicable, non-communicable, and other diseases in Ethiopia over the last 25 years. Methods: GBD 2015 mainly used cause of death ensemble modeling to measure causes of death by age, sex, and year for 195 countries. We report numbers of deaths and rates of years of life lost (YLL) for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disorders, non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and injuries with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) for Ethiopia from 1990 to 2015. Results: CMNN causes of death have declined by 65% in the last two-and-a-half decades. Injury-related causes of death have also decreased by 70%. Deaths due to NCDs declined by 37% during the same period. Ethiopia showed a faster decline in the burden of four out of the five leading causes of age-standardized premature mortality rates when compared to the overall sub-Saharan African region and the Eastern sub-Saharan African region: lower respiratory infections, tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, and diarrheal diseases; however, the same could not be said for ischemic heart disease and other NCDs. Non-communicable diseases, together, were the leading causes of age-standardized mortality rates, whereas CMNN diseases were leading causes of premature mortality in 2015. Although lower respiratory infections, tuberculosis, and diarrheal disease were the leading causes of age-standardized death rates, they showed major declines from 1990 to 2015. Neonatal encephalopathy, iron-deficiency anemia, protein-energy malnutrition, and preterm birth complications also showed more than a 50% reduction in burden. HIV/AIDS-related deaths have also decreased by 70% since 2005. Ischemic heart disease, hemorrhagic stroke, and ischemic stroke were among the top causes of premature mortality and age-standardized death rates in Ethiopia in 2015. Conclusions: Ethiopia has been successful in reducing deaths related to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional deficiency diseases and injuries by 65%, despite unacceptably high maternal and neonatal mortality rates. However, the country’s performance regarding non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancer, and chronic respiratory disease, was minimal, causing these diseases to join the leading causes of premature mortality and death rates in 2015. While the country is progressing toward universal health coverage, prevention and control strategies in Ethiopia should consider the double burden of common infectious diseases and non-communicable diseases: lower respiratory infections, diarrhea, tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and diabetes. Prevention and control strategies should also pay special attention to the leading causes of premature mortality and death rates caused by non-communicable diseases: cardiovascular disease, cancer, and diabetes. Measuring further progress requires a data revolution in generating, managing, analyzing, and using data for decision-making and the creation of a full vital registration system in the country

The epidemiological landscape of anemia in women of reproductive age in sub-Saharan Africa

The role of geographical disparities of health-related risk factors with anemia are poorly documented for women of reproductive age in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We aimed to determine the contribution of potential factors and to identify areas at higher risk of anemia for women in reproductive age in SSA. Our study population comprised 27 nationally representative samples of women of reproductive age (15–49) who were enrolled in the Demographic and Health Surveys and conducted between 2010 and 2019 in SSA. Overall, we found a positive association between being anemic and the ecological exposure to malaria incidence [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.02, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02–1.02], and HIV prevalence (AOR = 1.01, CI 1.01–1.02). Women currently pregnant or under deworming medication for the last birth had 31% (AOR = 1.31, CI 1.24–1.39) and 5% (AOR = 1.05, CI 1.01–1.10) higher odds of having anemia, respectively. Similarly, women age 25–34 years old with low education, low income and living in urban settings had higher odds of having anemia. In addition, underweight women had 23% higher odds of suffering anemia (AOR = 1.23, CI 1.15–1.31). Females with low levels of education and wealth index were consistently associated with anemia across SSA. Spatial distribution shows increased risk of anemia in Central and Western Africa. Knowledge about the contribution of known major drivers and the spatial distribution of anemia risk can mitigate operational constraints and help to design geographically targeted intervention programs in SSA

Cost-effectiveness analysis of physiotherapy interventions for low-back pain: a systematic review

Background: Due to the rapid increase in healthcare costs of low back pain (LBP), it is important to provide clinically and cost effective interventions to individuals with the condition. Objective: To evaluate all recent economic evaluations of physiotherapy interventions for patients with LBP. Data sources: Searches were undertaken on CINAHL, Medline, the National Health Service Economic Evaluation database (NHSEED), Health Technology Assessment (HTA), and Database of Abstracts of Review of Effects (DARE) from January 2008 to October 2018. Study selection: Randomised controlled trials, cohort studies that assessed the costeffectiveness of physiotherapy interventions on patients with LBP compared to a control group. A Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) checklist was used to assess the quality of the included studies. Data extraction/Data synthesis: Pairs of review authors independently extracted data. A descriptive synthesis was conducted to summarise the data. Results: A total of 1,531 articles were identified, and 11 studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The total number of participants included in the studies included in the review were 2,633 and their age ranged from 18 to 80 years. In the included studies, the duration of LBP ranged from 3 weeks to 1 year. Except in one study, all the included studies reported that physiotherapy intervention was cost effective compared to controls. Because of the heterogeneity of the included studies, meta-analysis was not possible. Conclusion: Although most of the included studies suggested that physiotherapy interventions were cost effective, it is difficult to pool their cost effectiveness for a conclusive evidence