Counting the cost: estimating the number of deaths among recently released prisoners in Australia

Objective: To estimate the number of deaths among people released from prison in Australia in the 2007–08 financial year, within 4 weeks and 1 year of release. Design, participants and setting: Application of crude mortality rates for ex-prisoners (obtained from two independent, state-based record-linkage studies [New South Wales and Western Australia]) to a national estimate of the number and characteristics of people released from prison in 2007–08. Main outcome measures: Estimated number of deaths among adults released from Australian prisons in 2007–08, within 4 weeks and 1 year of release, classified by age, sex, Indigenous status and cause of death. Results: It was estimated that among people released from prison in 2007–08, between 449 (95% CI, 380–527) and 472 (95% CI, 438–507) died within 1 year of release. Of these, between 68 (95% CI, 56–82) and 138 (95% CI, 101–183) died within 4 weeks of release. Most of these deaths were not drug-related. Conclusion: The estimated annual number of deaths among recently released prisoners in Australia is considerably greater than the annual number of deaths in custody, highlighting the extreme vulnerability of this population on return to the community. There is an urgent need to establish a national system for routine monitoring of ex-prisoner mortality and to continue the duty of care beyond the prison walls

Meta-analysis of drug-related deaths soon after release from prison

Aims The transition from prison back into the community is particularly hazardous for drug-using offenders whose tolerance for heroin has been reduced by imprisonment. Studies have indicated an increased risk of drug-related death soon after release from prison, particularly in the first 2 weeks. For precise, up-to-date understanding of these risks, a meta-analysis was conducted on the risk of drug-related death in weeks 1 + 2 and 3 + 4 compared with later 2-week periods in the first 12 weeks after release from prison. Methods English-language studies were identified that followed up adult prisoners for mortality from time of index release for at least 12 weeks. Six studies from six prison systems met the inclusion criteria and relevant data were extracted independently. Results These studies contributed a total of 69 093 person-years and 1033 deaths in the first 12 weeks after release, of which 612 were drug-related. A three- to eightfold increased risk of drug-related death was found when comparing weeks 1 + 2 with weeks 3–12, with notable heterogeneity between countries: United Kingdom, 7.5 (95% CI: 5.7–9.9); Australia, 4.0 (95% CI: 3.4–4.8); Washington State, USA, 8.4 (95% CI: 5.0–14.2) and New Mexico State, USA, 3.1 (95% CI: 1.3–7.1). Comparing weeks 3 + 4 with weeks 5–12, the pooled relative risk was: 1.7 (95% CI: 1.3–2.2). Conclusions These findings confirm that there is an increased risk of drug-related death during the first 2 weeks after release from prison and that the risk remains elevated up to at least the fourth week

The epidemiology of adolescents living with perinatally acquired HIV: A cross-region global cohort analysis

Background Globally, the population of adolescents living with perinatally acquired HIV (APHs) continues to expand. In this study, we pooled data from observational pediatric HIV cohorts and cohort networks, allowing comparisons of adolescents with perinatally acquired HIV in “real-life” settings across multiple regions. We describe the geographic and temporal characteristics and mortality outcomes of APHs across multiple regions, including South America and the Caribbean, North America, Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, and South and Southeast Asia. Methods and findings Through the Collaborative Initiative for Paediatric HIV Education and Research (CIPHER), individual retrospective longitudinal data from 12 cohort networks were pooled. All children infected with HIV who entered care before age 10 years, were not known to have horizontally acquired HIV, and were followed up beyond age 10 years were included in this analysis conducted from May 2016 to January 2017. Our primary analysis describes patient and treatment characteristics of APHs at key time points, including first HIV-associated clinic visit, antiretroviral therapy (ART) start, age 10 years, and last visit, and compares these characteristics by geographic region, country income group (CIG), and birth period. Our secondary analysis describes mortality, transfer out, and lost to follow-up (LTFU) as outcomes at age 15 years, using competing risk analysis. Among the 38,187 APHs included, 51% were female, 79% were from sub-Saharan Africa and 65% lived in low-income countries. APHs from 51 countries were included (Europe: 14 countries and 3,054 APHs; North America: 1 country and 1,032 APHs; South America and the Caribbean: 4 countries and 903 APHs; South and Southeast Asia: 7 countries and 2,902 APHs; sub-Saharan Africa, 25 countries and 30,296 APHs). Observation started as early as 1982 in Europe and 1996 in sub-Saharan Africa, and continued until at least 2014 in all regions. The median (interquartile range [IQR]) duration of adolescent follow-up was 3.1 (1.5–5.2) years for the total cohort and 6.4 (3.6–8.0) years in Europe, 3.7 (2.0–5.4) years in North America, 2.5 (1.2–4.4) years in South and Southeast Asia, 5.0 (2.7–7.5) years in South America and the Caribbean, and 2.1 (0.9–3.8) years in sub-Saharan Africa. Median (IQR) age at first visit differed substantially by region, ranging from 0.7 (0.3–2.1) years in North America to 7.1 (5.3–8.6) years in sub-Saharan Africa. The median age at ART start varied from 0.9 (0.4–2.6) years in North America to 7.9 (6.0–9.3) years in sub-Saharan Africa. The cumulative incidence estimates (95% confidence interval [CI]) at age 15 years for mortality, transfers out, and LTFU for all APHs were 2.6% (2.4%–2.8%), 15.6% (15.1%–16.0%), and 11.3% (10.9%–11.8%), respectively. Mortality was lowest in Europe (0.8% [0.5%–1.1%]) and highest in South America and the Caribbean (4.4% [3.1%–6.1%]). However, LTFU was lowest in South America and the Caribbean (4.8% [3.4%–6.7%]) and highest in sub-Saharan Africa (13.2% [12.6%–13.7%]). Study limitations include the high LTFU rate in sub-Saharan Africa, which could have affected the comparison of mortality across regions; inclusion of data only for APHs receiving ART from some countries; and unavailability of data from high-burden countries such as Nigeria. Conclusion To our knowledge, our study represents the largest multiregional epidemiological analysis of APHs. Despite probable under-ascertained mortality, mortality in APHs remains substantially higher in sub-Saharan Africa, South and Southeast Asia, and South America and the Caribbean than in Europe. Collaborations such as CIPHER enable us to monitor current global temporal trends in outcomes over time to inform appropriate policy responses

The changing characteristics of a cohort of children and adolescents living with HIV at antiretroviral therapy initiation in Asia.

Despite improvements in HIV testing and earlier antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in children living with HIV through the years, a considerable proportion start treatment with advanced disease. We studied characteristics of children and adolescents living with HIV and their level of immunodeficiency at ART initiation using data from a multi-country Asian cohort. We included children and adolescents who were ART-naïve and <18 years of age at ART initiation from 2011 to 2020 at 17 HIV clinics in six countries. Incidence rates of opportunistic infections (OIs) in the first two years of triple-drug ART (≥3 antiretrovirals) was also reported. Competing risk regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with first occurrence of OI. In 2,027 children and adolescents (54% males), median age at ART initiation increased from 4.5 years in 2011-2013 to 6.7 in 2017-2020, median CD4 count doubled from 237 cells/μl to 466 cells/μl, and proportion of children who initiated ART as severely immunodeficient decreased from 70% to 45%. During follow-up, 275 (14%) children who received triple-drug ART as first treatment and had at least one clinic visit, developed at least one OI in the first two years of treatment (9.40 per 100 person-years). The incidence rate of any first OI declined from 12.52 to 7.58 per 100 person-years during 2011-2013 and 2017-2020. Lower hazard of OIs were found in those with age at first ART 2-14 years, current CD4 ≥200 cells/μl, and receiving ART between 2017 and 2020. The analysis demonstrated increasing number of children and adolescents starting ART with high CD4 count at ART start. The rate of first OI markedly decreased in children who started ART in more recent years. There remains a clear need for improvement in HIV control strategies in children, by promoting earlier diagnosis and timely treatment

Global estimates of viral suppression in children and adolescents and adults on antiretroviral therapy adjusted for missing viral load measurements: a multiregional, retrospective cohort study in 31 countries

BACKGROUND: As countries move towards the UNAIDS's 95-95-95 targets and with strong evidence that undetectable equals untransmittable, it is increasingly important to assess whether those with HIV who are receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) achieve viral suppression. We estimated the proportions of children and adolescents and adults with viral suppression at 1, 2, and 3 years after initiating ART. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, seven regional cohorts from the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) consortium contributed data from individuals initiating ART between Jan 1, 2010, and Dec 31, 2019, at 148 sites in 31 countries with annual viral load monitoring. Only people with HIV who started ART after the time a site started routine viral load monitoring were included. Data up to March 31, 2020, were analysed. We estimated the proportions of children and adolescents (aged <18 years at ART initiation) and adults (aged ≥18 years at ART initiation) with viral suppression (viral load <1000 copies per mL) at 1, 2, and 3 years after ART initiation using an intention-to-treat approach and an adjusted approach that accounted for missing viral load measurements. FINDINGS: 21 594 children and adolescents (11 812 [55%] female, 9782 [45%] male) from 106 sites in 22 countries and 255 662 adults (163 831 [64%] female, 91 831 [36%] male) from 143 sites in 30 countries were included. Using the intention-to-treat approach, the proportion of children and adolescents with viral suppression was 7303 (36%) of 20 478 at 1 year, 5709 (30%) of 19 135 at 2 years, and 4287 (24%) of 17 589 at 3 years after ART initiation; the proportion of adults with viral suppression was 106 541 (44%) of 240 600 at 1 year, 79 141 (36%) of 220 925 at 2 years, and 57 970 (29%) of 201 124 at 3 years after ART initiation. After adjusting for missing viral load measurements among those who transferred, were lost to follow-up, or who were in follow-up without viral load testing, the proportion of children and adolescents with viral suppression was 12 048 (64% [plausible range 43-81]) of 18 835 at 1 year, 10 796 (62% [41-77]) of 17 553 at 2 years, and 9177 (59% [38-91]) of 15 667 at 3 years after ART initiation; the proportion of adults with viral suppression was 176 964 (79% [53-80]) of 225 418 at 1 year, 145 552 (72% [48-79]) of 201 238 at 2 years, and 115 260 (65% [43-69]) of 178 458 at 3 years after ART initiation. INTERPRETATION: Although adults with HIV are approaching the global target of 95% viral suppression, progress among children and adolescents is much slower. Substantial efforts are still needed to reach the viral suppression target for children and adolescents. FUNDING: US National Institutes of Health