Modelling and forecasting of catfish species yield from Mangochi artisan fisheries of Lake malawi in Malawi

Most of the wild fish stocks in Malawi either are fully or over exploited. This challenge underpins importance of forecasting using available data to support sustainable fisheries management. The study aimed at modelling and forecasting Catfish (Mlamba) species yield from artisan fishery on Lake Malawi in Mangochi District as they are becoming important food fish due to decline of more important fish species such as Oreochromis(Chambo). The study was based on secondary data on fish catches between1976 and 2012, collected from Fisheries Research Unit of the Department of Fisheries in Malawi. The study considered Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) processes to select an appropriate stochastic model for forecasting the species yield. Appropriate models were chosen based on ARIMA (p, d, q). Autocorrelation function (ACF), Partialautocorrelation (PACF), Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Box-Ljung statistics, correlogram of residual errors, distribution of residual errors, ME, RMSE, MAPE and MAE. Selected model was ARIMA (0, 0, 1) for forecasting artisan landings of Catfish from Lake Malawi in Mangochi District from 2013 to 2022. Based on the chosen model, forecast for artisan Catfish landings showed mean of 352 tonnes and mean of actual catches was 362 tonnes. However, catches in year 2022 are projected to be 360 tonnes, slightly below the actual catches mean but above 236 tonnes in 2010, assuming other factors remain constant. Confidence intervals of the forecasts included a zero and as such over exploitation of the species cannot be ruled out. Landings of the fishery will increase to 360 tonnes and remain stable through year 2022 necessitating fisheries managementconsideration to improve the trend. Policy makers should secure sustainable exploitation of Catfish species, among artisan fishery in the study area by controlling all fishing effort that lands the species such as gillnets, beach seines, open water seines among others

Biomarkers of collagen synthesis predict progression in the PROFILE idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis cohort.

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is characterised by excessive extracellular matrix (ECM) deposition and remodelling. Measuring this activity provides an opportunity to develop tools capable of identifying individuals at-risk of progression. Longitudinal change in markers of ECM synthesis was assessed in 145 newly-diagnosed individuals with IPF. Serum levels of collagen synthesis neoepitopes, PRO-C3 and PRO-C6 (collagen type 3 and 6), were elevated in IPF compared with controls at baseline, and progressive disease versus stable disease during follow up, (PRO-C3 p  0 vs. LOW slope, slope < =0) demonstrated no relationship with mortality for these markers (PRO-C3 (HR 1.62, p = 0.080); PINP (HR 0.76, p = 0.309); PRO-C6 (HR 1.14, p = 0.628)). As previously reported, rising concentrations of collagen degradation markers C1M, C3M, C6M and CRPM were associated with an increased risk of overall mortality (HR = 1.84, CI 1.03–3.27, p = 0.038, HR = 2.44, CI 1.39–4.31, p = 0.002; HR = 2.19, CI 1.25–3.82, p = 0.006; HR = 2.13 CI 1.21–3.75, p = 0.009 respectively). Elevated levels of PRO-C3 and PRO-C6 associate with IPF disease progression. Collagen synthesis and degradation biomarkers have the potential to enhance clinical trials in IPF and may inform prognostic assessment and therapeutic decision making in the clinic

EVerT: Cryotherapy versus salicylic acid for the treatment of verrucae - a randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVE: To compare the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of cryotherapy using liquid nitrogen versus patient daily self-treatment with 50% salicylic acid for the treatment of verrucae (plantar warts). DESIGN: A multicentre, pragmatic, open, two-armed randomised controlled trial with an economic evaluation. Randomisation was simple, with the allocation sequence generated by a computer in a 1 : 1 ratio. SETTING: Podiatry clinics, university podiatry schools and primary care in England, Scotland and Ireland. PARTICIPANTS: Patients were eligible if they presented with a verruca which, in the opinion of the health-care professional, was suitable for treatment with both salicylic acid and cryotherapy, and were aged 12 years and over. INTERVENTIONS: Cryotherapy using liquid nitrogen delivered by a health-care professional compared with daily patient self-treatment with 50% salicylic acid (Verrugon, William Ransom & Son Plc, Hitchin, UK) for a maximum of 8 weeks. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was complete clearance of all verrucae at 12 weeks. Secondary outcomes were complete clearance of all verrucae at 12 weeks, controlling for age, whether or not the verrucae had been previously treated and type of verrucae, with a second model to explore the effect of patient preferences, time to clearance of verrucae, clearance of verrucae at 6 months, number of verrucae at 12 weeks and patient satisfaction with the treatment RESULTS: In total, 240 eligible patients were recruited, with 117 patients allocated to the cryotherapy group and 123 to the salicylic acid group. There was no evidence of a difference in clearance rates between the treatment groups in the primary outcome [17/119 (14.3%) in the salicylic acid group vs 15/110 (13.6%) in the cryotherapy group; p = 0.89]. The results of the study did not change when controlled for age, whether or not the verrucae had been previously treated and type of verrucae, or when patient preferences were explored. There was no evidence of a difference in time to clearance of verrucae between the two groups [hazard ratio (HR) 0.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.51 to 1.25; p = 0.33] or in the clearance of verrucae at 6 months (33.7% cryotherapy vs 30.5% salicylic acid). There was no evidence of a difference in the number of verrucae at 12 weeks between the two groups (incidence rate ratio 1.08, 95% CI 0.81 to 1.43; p = 0.62). Nineteen participants reported 28 adverse events, 14 in each group, with two treatment-related non-serious adverse events in the cryotherapy group. Cryotherapy was also associated with higher mean costs per additional healed patient (£101.17, 95% bias-corrected and accelerated CI £85.09 to £117.26). The probability of cryotherapy being cost-effective is 40% for a range of willingness-to-pay thresholds of £15,000-30,000 per patient healed. CONCLUSIONS: There is no evidence for a difference in terms of clearance of verrucae between cryotherapy and salicylic acid (at both 12 weeks and 6 months), number of verrucae at 12 weeks and time to clearance of verrucae. Cryotherapy was associated with higher mean costs per additional healed patient compared with salicylic acid. TRIAL REGISTRATION:Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN18994246. FUNDING: This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 15, No. 32. See the HTA programme website for further project information

Clinical quantification of the integrin αvβ6 by [18F]FB-A20FMDV2 positron emission tomography in healthy and fibrotic human lung (PETAL Study)

© 2019, The Author(s). Purpose: The RGD-integrin, αvβ6, plays a role in the pathogenesis of pulmonary fibrosis through activation of transforming growth factor beta (TGFβ). This study sought to quantify expression of αvβ6 in the lungs of healthy humans and subjects with pulmonary fibrosis using the αvβ6-selective [18F]FB-A20FMDV2 PET ligand. Methods: [18F]FB-A20FMDV2 PET/CT scans were performed in healthy subjects and those with fibrotic lung disease. Standard uptake values (SUV) and volume of distribution (VT) were used to quantify αvβ6 expression. In subjects with fibrotic lung disease, qualitative assessment of the relationship between αvβ6 expression and the distribution of fibrosis on high resolution computed tomography was conducted. Results: A total of 15 participants (6 healthy, 7 with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and 2 with connective tissue disease (CTD) associated PF) were enrolled. VT and SUV of [18F]FB-A20FMDV2 were increased in the lungs of subjects with pulmonary fibrosis (PF) compared with healthy subjects. Geometric mean VT (95% CI) was 0.88 (0.60, 1.29) mL/cm3 for healthy subjects, and 1.40 (1.22, 1.61) mL/cm3 for subjects with IPF; and SUV was 0.54 (0.36, 0.81) g/mL for healthy subjects and 1.03 (0.86, 1.22) g/mL for subjects with IPF. The IPF/healthy VT ratio (geometric mean, (95% CI of ratio)) was 1.59 (1.09, 2.32) (probability ratio > 1 = 0.988)) and the SUV ratio was 1.91 (1.27, 2.87) (probability ratio > 1 = 0.996). Increased uptake of [18F]FB-A20FMDV2 in PF was predominantly confined to fibrotic areas. [18F]FB-A20FMDV2 measurements were reproducible at an interval of 2 weeks. [18F]FB-A20FMDV2 was safe and well tolerated. Conclusions: Lung uptake of [18F]FB-A20FMDV2, a measure of expression of the integrin αvβ6, was markedly increased in subjects with PF compared with healthy subjects

Acupuncture, Counseling, and Usual care for Depression (ACUDep): study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background: The evidence on the effect of acupuncture or counseling for depression is not conclusive yet is sufficient to warrant further research. Our aim is to conduct a full-scale RCT to determine the clinical and cost effectiveness of acupuncture and counseling compared to usual care alone. We will explore the experiences and perspectives of patients and practitioners. Methods/Design: Randomized controlled trial with three parallel arms: acupuncture plus usual care, counseling plus usual care, and usual care alone, in conjunction with a nested qualitative study using in-depth interviews with purposive samples of trial participants. Participants: Patients aged over 18 years diagnosed with depression or mood disorder by their GP and with a score of 20 or above on the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II). Randomization: Computer randomization by York Trials Unit to acupuncture, counseling, and usual care alone in proportions of 2:2:1, respectively, with secure allocation concealment. Interventions: Patients allocated to acupuncture and counseling groups receive the offer of up to 12 weekly sessions. Both interventions allow flexibility to address patient variation, yet are constrained within defined protocols. Acupuncture is based on traditional Chinese medicine and counseling is non-directive within the humanistic tradition. Outcome: The PHQ-9 is the primary outcome measure, collected at baseline, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months. Also measured is BDI-II, SF-36 Bodily pain subscale, and EQ-5D. Texted mood scores are collected weekly over the first 15 weeks. Health-related resource use is collected over 12 months. Analysis: The sample size target was for 640 participants, calculated for an effect size of 0.32 on the PHQ-9 when comparing acupuncture with counseling given 90% power, 5% significance, and 20% loss to follow-up. Analysis of covariance will be used on an intention-to-treat basis. Thematic analysis will be used for qualitative data. We will compare incremental cost-effectiveness of the three treatment options at 12 months. Discussion: Ethical approval was obtained in October 2009. There were six subsequent protocol amendments, the last of which was approved in January 2012. Recruitment of 755 participants took place over 18 months. Data collection will be completed by June 2012. No interim analyses have been conducted

The complex relationship between human immunodeficiency virus infection and death in adults being treated for tuberculosis in Cape Town, South Africa

Background Despite recognised treatment strategies, mortality associated with tuberculosis (TB) remains significant. Risk factors for death during TB treatment have been described but the complex relationship between TB and HIV has not been fully understood. Methods A retrospective analysis of all deaths occurring during TB treatment in Cape Town, South Africa between 2009 and 2012 were done to investigate risk factors associated with this outcome. The main risk factor was HIV status at the start of treatment and its interaction with age, sex and other risk factors were evaluated using a binomial regression model and thus relative risks (RR) are reported. Results Overall in the 93,133 cases included in the study 4619 deaths (5 %) were recorded. Across all age groups HIV-positive patients were more than twice as likely to die as HIV-negative patients, RR = 2.19 (95 % CI: 2.03–2.37). However in an age specific analysis HIV-positive patients 15–24 and 25–34 years old were at an even higher risk of dying than HIV-negative patients, RR = 4.82 and RR = 3.76 respectively. Gender also modified the effect of HIV- with positive women having a higher risk of death than positive men, RR = 2.74 and RR = 1.94 respectively. Conclusion HIV carries an increased risk of death in this study but specific high-risk groups pertaining to the impact of HIV are identified. Innovative strategies to manage these high risk groups may contribute to reduction in HIV-associated death in TB patients

Total invasive Nontyphoidal Salmonella (iNTS) disease cases, malaria cases, annual rainfall and nutritional rehabilitation unit (NRU) admissions by year.

<p>*Malaria cases not recorded for Oct, Nov and Dec 2004</p><p>Total invasive Nontyphoidal Salmonella (iNTS) disease cases, malaria cases, annual rainfall and nutritional rehabilitation unit (NRU) admissions by year.</p

Seasonal structural equation model (SEM) of the interaction between malaria, malnutrition, HIV, rainfall, and time upon iNTS disease.

<p>Numbers are standardised regression coefficients from SEM model fits. Blue lines indicate statistically significant <i>positive</i> relationships; red lines indicate statistically significant <i>negative</i> relationships; grey lines indicate statistically <i>non-</i>significant relationships. The black line indicates a non-directional correlation.</p