Modelling human choices: MADeM and decision‑making

Research supported by FAPESP 2015/50122-0 and DFG-GRTK 1740/2. RP and AR are also part of the Research, Innovation and Dissemination Center for Neuromathematics FAPESP grant (2013/07699-0). RP is supported by a FAPESP scholarship (2013/25667-8). ACR is partially supported by a CNPq fellowship (grant 306251/2014-0)

SUMMARY

In 1998 a Government commissioned independent review of railway safety addressed, inter alia, the safety adequacy of the Irish railway system. In conducting the review consultants International Risk Management Services (IRMS) developed a model that calculated the level of individual and cumulative risk exposure on various sections of the network. This information was used to support prioritisation of expenditure of 660m n.p.v. under the first five year phase of an envisaged fifteen year Government funded railway safety investment programme commencing in 1999. A more refined model has since been developed built on a wider and more extensively populated asset database and including rolling stock and human factor inputs. In addition to providing a more robust basis for prioritising investment over the second five year phase of the safety investment programme the underlying process of risk assessment is a key element of the operational safety management system. Where there are no mandated standards, or elements of the system that are operated under grandfather rights do not comply with best industry practice, it also provides an effective mechanism for demonstrating safety adequacy