Implications of climate change and anthropogenic activity for the water security of West African river basins

West Africa experiences some of the most extreme climatic variability anywhere in the world. The 1970s and 1980s saw drought triggering regional-scale famine; in more recent years, a recovery in rainfall totals has led to devastating flood events, such as those seen across the region in 2009. Knowledge of the potential impact of future climate and anthropogenic change on water resources, food production and ecosystem services for highly vulnerable populations is essential to water planners, managers and policy makers. The GWAVA water resources model provides key information on the potential scale of water deficits and/or surpluses across West Africa for the present and future climate using 29 Global Circulation Models from the CMIP5 ensemble. Areas of concern are highlighted, and mitigating strategies explored, such as supplementary irrigation or use of more drought-tolerant crops, as sustainable ways in which to support climate-compatible development in the region. Analysis considers the role of current policy on the allocation of water resources in West Africa, and how a changing future climate may impact these policies and the region’s growing population

Understanding future water challenges in a highly regulated Indian river basin — modelling the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the upper Narmada

The Narmada river basin is a highly regulated catchment in central India, supporting a population of over 16 million people. In such extensively modified hydrological systems, the influence of anthropogenic alterations is often underrepresented or excluded entirely by large-scale hydrological models. The Global Water Availability Assessment (GWAVA) model is applied to the Upper Narmada, with all major dams, water abstractions and irrigation command areas included, which allows for the development of a holistic methodology for the assessment of water resources in the basin. The model is driven with 17 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to assess the impact of climate change on water resources in the basin for the period 2031–2060. The study finds that the hydrological regime within the basin is likely to intensify over the next half-century as a result of future climate change, causing long-term increases in monsoon season flow across the Upper Narmada. Climate is expected to have little impact on dry season flows, in comparison to water demand intensification over the same period, which may lead to increased water stress in parts of the basin

Flood impacts across scales: towards an integrated multi-scale approach for Malaysia

Flooding is a recurring challenge across Malaysia, causing loss of life, extensive disruption and having a major impact on the economy. A new collaboration between Malaysia and UK, supported by the Newton-Ungku Omar Fund, aims to address a critical and neglected aspect of large-scale flood risk assessment: the representation of damage models, including exposure, vulnerability and inundation. In this paper we review flood risk and impact across Malaysia and present an approach to integrate multiple sources of information on the drivers of flood risk (hazard, exposure and vulnerability) at a range of scales (from household to national), with reference to past flood events. Recent infrastructure projects in Malaysia, such as Kuala Lumpur’s SMART Tunnel, aim to mitigate the effects of flooding both in the present and, ideally, for the foreseeable future. Our collaborative project aims to develop and assess a new multi-scale model of flood risk in Malaysia for current and projected future scenarios, and to address climate adaptation questions of policy relevance for flood stakeholders. This approach will enable us to identify the preferred adaptation pathways given multiple scenarios of climate and socio-economic change in Malaysia, and, beyond the life of our project, internationall

Identification of genetic variants associated with Huntington's disease progression: a genome-wide association study

Background Huntington's disease is caused by a CAG repeat expansion in the huntingtin gene, HTT. Age at onset has been used as a quantitative phenotype in genetic analysis looking for Huntington's disease modifiers, but is hard to define and not always available. Therefore, we aimed to generate a novel measure of disease progression and to identify genetic markers associated with this progression measure. Methods We generated a progression score on the basis of principal component analysis of prospectively acquired longitudinal changes in motor, cognitive, and imaging measures in the 218 indivduals in the TRACK-HD cohort of Huntington's disease gene mutation carriers (data collected 2008–11). We generated a parallel progression score using data from 1773 previously genotyped participants from the European Huntington's Disease Network REGISTRY study of Huntington's disease mutation carriers (data collected 2003–13). We did a genome-wide association analyses in terms of progression for 216 TRACK-HD participants and 1773 REGISTRY participants, then a meta-analysis of these results was undertaken. Findings Longitudinal motor, cognitive, and imaging scores were correlated with each other in TRACK-HD participants, justifying use of a single, cross-domain measure of disease progression in both studies. The TRACK-HD and REGISTRY progression measures were correlated with each other (r=0·674), and with age at onset (TRACK-HD, r=0·315; REGISTRY, r=0·234). The meta-analysis of progression in TRACK-HD and REGISTRY gave a genome-wide significant signal (p=1·12 × 10−10) on chromosome 5 spanning three genes: MSH3, DHFR, and MTRNR2L2. The genes in this locus were associated with progression in TRACK-HD (MSH3 p=2·94 × 10−8 DHFR p=8·37 × 10−7 MTRNR2L2 p=2·15 × 10−9) and to a lesser extent in REGISTRY (MSH3 p=9·36 × 10−4 DHFR p=8·45 × 10−4 MTRNR2L2 p=1·20 × 10−3). The lead single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in TRACK-HD (rs557874766) was genome-wide significant in the meta-analysis (p=1·58 × 10−8), and encodes an aminoacid change (Pro67Ala) in MSH3. In TRACK-HD, each copy of the minor allele at this SNP was associated with a 0·4 units per year (95% CI 0·16–0·66) reduction in the rate of change of the Unified Huntington's Disease Rating Scale (UHDRS) Total Motor Score, and a reduction of 0·12 units per year (95% CI 0·06–0·18) in the rate of change of UHDRS Total Functional Capacity score. These associations remained significant after adjusting for age of onset. Interpretation The multidomain progression measure in TRACK-HD was associated with a functional variant that was genome-wide significant in our meta-analysis. The association in only 216 participants implies that the progression measure is a sensitive reflection of disease burden, that the effect size at this locus is large, or both. Knockout of Msh3 reduces somatic expansion in Huntington's disease mouse models, suggesting this mechanism as an area for future therapeutic investigation

Genome editing

Die Lerneinheit «Genome Editing – Zur Erzeugung von genetischer Vielfalt im landwirtschaftlichen Anbau» besteht aus drei Teilen. Der erste und dritte Teil enthalten theoretische Lektionen, welche den zweiten Teil (einen Workshop mit dem Zurich-Basel Plant Science Center) einbetten und die gesellschaftliche Relevanz des Themas verdeutlichen. Lektion 1 thematisiert die Herausforderungen an die heutige Pflanzenzucht. Anhand von Beispielen wird diskutiert, welche Bedeutung eine hohe genetische Vielfalt einer Kulturpflanze hat. In Lektion 2 wird CRISPR/Cas9 vorgestellt, ein Werkzeug, mit dem Kultursorten mit gewünschten Eigenschaften ausgestattet werden können. Zum Beispiel können Wildsorten mit nützlichen Eigenschaften von Kultursorten ausgestattet werden und so für den landwirtschaftlichen Anbau nutzbar werden. Lektion 3 erklärt den Ursprung des CRISPR/Cas9-Systems. Damit wird die Funktion des Systems in Bakterien erklärt. In Lektion 4 werden die verschiedenen Züchtungsmethoden in Bezug auf ihre Einsatzmöglichkeiten in der Pflanzenzucht miteinander verglichen – dies v.a. im Zusammenhang mit den aktuellen Regulierungen in der Schweiz

Genome Editing: PSC Discovery Workshop

Das Ziel von Genome Editing in der Pflanzenzucht sind Pflanzen mit verbesserten Merkmalen. Dieser Workshop gibt Schülerinnen und Schülern einen Einblick ins Genome Editing mittels der Genschere CRISPR/ Cas9. Am Beispiel der Tomate (Solanum lycopersicum) und einem Online-Tool identifizieren sie selber künstliche RNA-Sequenzen (sgRNA), die für die Cas9-Reaktion eingesetzt werden können. Das Einführen des Cas9/ sgRNA-Systems in die Pflanzenzellen wird thematisiert, ebenso die Analyse der veränderten Pflanzen. Anhand von Sequenzvergleichen analysieren die Schülerinnen und Schüler, was die CRISPR/Cas9-Methode in unserem Beispiel bewirkt hat. Zum Abschluss wird die gesellschaftliche Relevanz der vorgestellten Methode in der Pflanzenzucht diskutiert

River basin planning

Chapter 8. The impact of climate change and human intervention on water resources is exemplified by India, where changes in climate are compounded by rapid urbanisation, growing population and their associated water demands, and unsustainable resource exploitation. In addition, many of India’s major rivers are impounded along their course for diverse purposes. Evaluations of existing and future water resource are essential for sustainable development and management, and large-scale hydrological models that incorporate anthropogenic influences can be critical for such assessments. Outputs from these models can inform water planners, managers and policy-makers of the potential scale of water deficits or surpluses, and identify specific areas of concern. This chapter discusses these models and why they are important, and presents an example application of one model in the Narmada river basin in India

An integrative transcranial magnetic stimulation mapping technique using non-linear curve fitting

The aim of this study is to develop a new simple method for analyzing one-dimensional transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) mapping studies in humans. Motor evoked potentials (MEP) were recorded from the abductor pollicis brevis (APB) muscle during stimulation at nine different positions on the scalp along a line passing through the APB hot spot and the vertex. Non-linear curve fitting according to the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm was performed on the averaged amplitude values obtained at all points to find the best-fitting symmetrical and asymmetrical peak functions. Several peak functions could be fitted to the experimental data. Across all subjects, a symmetric, bell-shaped curve, the complementary error function (erfc) gave the best results. This function is characterized by three parameters giving its amplitude, position, and width. None of the mathematical functions tested with less or more than three parameters fitted better. The amplitude and position parameters of the erfc were highly correlated with the amplitude at the hot spot and with the location of the center of gravity of the TMS curve. In conclusion, non-linear curve fitting is an accurate method for the mathematical characterization of one-dimensional TMS curves. This is the first method that provides information on amplitude, position and width simultaneously

Impact of coil position and electrophysiological monitoring on determination of motor thresholds to transcranial magnetic stimulation

OBJECTIVE: We compared motor and movement thresholds to transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) in healthy subjects and investigated the effect of different coil positions on thresholds and MEP (motor-evoked potential) amplitudes. METHODS: The abductor pollicis brevis (APB) 'hot spot' and a standard scalp position were stimulated. APB resting motor threshold (APB MEP-MT) defined by the '5/10' electrophysiological method was compared with movement threshold (MOV-MT), defined by visualization of movements. Additionally, APB MEP-MTs were evaluated with the '3/6 method,' and MEPs were recorded at a stimulation intensity of 120% APB MEP-MT at each position. RESULTS: APB MEP-MTs were significantly lower by stimulation of the 'hot spot' than of the standard position, and significantly lower than MOV-MTs (n=15). There were no significant differences between the '3/6' and the '5/10' methods, or between APB MEP amplitudes by stimulating each position at 120% APB MEP-MT. CONCLUSIONS: Coil position and electrophysiological monitoring influenced motor threshold determinations. Performing 6 instead of 10 trials did not produce different threshold measurements. Adjustment of intensity according to APB MEP-MT at the stimulated position did not influence APB MEP amplitudes. SIGNIFICANCE: Standardization of stimulation positions, nomenclature and criteria for threshold measurements should be considered in design and comparison of TMS protocols

Modeling the Hydrological Regime of Turkana Lake (Kenya, Ethiopia) by Combining Spatially Distributed Hydrological Modeling and Remote Sensing Datasets

International audienceHydrological modeling in poorly gauged basins can benefit from the use of remote sensing datasets although there are challenges associated with the mismatch in spatial and temporal scales between catchment scale hydrological models and remote sensing products. We model the hydrological processes and long-term water budget of the Lake Turkana catchment, a transboundary basin between Kenya and Ethiopia, by integrating several remote sensing products into a spatially distributed and physically explicit model, Topkapi-ETH. Lake Turkana is the world largest desert lake draining a catchment of 145’500 km2. It has three main contributing rivers: the Omo river, which contributes most of the annual lake inflow, the Turkwel river, and the Kerio rivers, which contribute the remaining part. The lake levels have shown great variations in the last decades due to long-term climate fluctuations and the regulation of three reservoirs, Gibe I, II, and III, which significantly alter the hydrological seasonality. Another large reservoir is planned and may be built in the next decade, generating concerns about the fate of Lake Turkana in the long run because of this additional anthropogenic pressure and increasing evaporation driven by climate change. We consider different remote sensing datasets, i.e., TRMM-V7 for precipitation, MERRA-2 for temperature, as inputs to the spatially distributed hydrological model. We validate the simulation results with other remote sensing datasets, i.e., GRACE for total water storage anomalies, GLDAS-NOAH for soil moisture, ERA-Interim/Land for surface runoff, and TOPEX/Poseidon for satellite altimetry data. Results highlight how different remote sensing products can be integrated into a hydrological modeling framework accounting for their relative uncertainties. We also carried out simulations with the artificial reservoirs planned in the north part of the catchment and without any reservoirs, to assess their impacts on the catchment hydrological regime and the Lake Turkana level variability