Impacts of natural and human drivers on the multi-decadal morphological evolution of tidally-influenced deltas

The world's deltas are at risk of being drowned due to rising relative sea levels as a result of climate change, decreasing supplies of fluvial sediment, and human responses to these changes. This paper analyses how delta morphology evolves over multi-decadal timescales under environmental change using a process-based model. Model simulations over 10^2 years are used to explore the influence of three key classes of environmental change, both individually and in combination: (i) varying combinations of fluvial water and sediment discharges; (ii) varying rates of relative sea-level rise; and (iii) selected human interventions within the delta, comprising polder-dykes and cross-dams. The results indicate that tidal asymmetry and rate of sediment supply together affect residual flows and delta morphodynamics (indicated by sub-aerial delta area, rates of progradation and aggradation). When individual drivers of change act in combination, delta building processes such as the distribution of sediment flux, aggradation, and progradation are disrupted by the presence of isolated polder-dykes or cross-dams. This suggests that such interventions, unless undertaken at a very large scale, can lead to unsustainable delta building processes. Our findings can inform management choices in real-world tidally-influenced deltas, while the methodology can provide insights into other dynamic morphological systems

Identification of undiagnosed atrial fibrillation patients using a machine learning risk prediction algorithm and diagnostic testing (PULsE-AI): Study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk of stroke, enhanced stroke severity, and other comorbidities. However, AF is often asymptomatic, and frequently remains undiagnosed until complications occur. Current screening approaches for AF lack either cost-effectiveness or diagnostic sensitivity; thus, there is interest in tools that could be used for population screening. An AF risk prediction algorithm, developed using machine learning from a UK dataset of 2,994,837 patients, was found to be more effective than existing models at identifying patients at risk of AF. Therefore, the aim of the trial is to assess the effectiveness of this risk prediction algorithm combined with diagnostic testing for the identification of AF in a real-world primary care setting. Eligible participants (aged ≥30 years and without an existing AF diagnosis) registered at participating UK general practices will be randomised into intervention and control arms. Intervention arm participants identified at highest risk of developing AF (algorithm risk score ≥ 7.4%) will be invited for a 12‑lead electrocardiogram (ECG) followed by two-weeks of home-based ECG monitoring with a KardiaMobile device. Control arm participants will be used for comparison and will be managed routinely. The primary outcome is the number of AF diagnoses in the intervention arm compared with the control arm during the research window. If the trial is successful, there is potential for the risk prediction algorithm to be implemented throughout primary care for narrowing the population considered at highest risk for AF who could benefit from more intensive screening for AF. Trial Registration: NCT04045639

Doubling of World Population Unlikely

Most national and international agencies producing population projections explicitly avoid addressing the issue of uncertainty. Typically, they provide either a single projection or a set of low, medium, and high variants, and only very rarely do they give these projections a probabilistic interpretation. Probabilistic population projections have been developed for specific industrialized countries, mostly the United States, and are based largely on time-series analysis. On a global level, time-series analysis is not applicable because there is a lack of appropriate data, and for conceptual reasons such as the structural discontinuity caused by the demographic transition. Here we report on a new probabilistic approach that makes use of expert opinion on trends in fertility, and on the 90% uncertainty range of those trends in different parts of the world. We have used simulation techniques to derive probability distributions of population sizes and age structures for 13 regions of the world up to the year 2100. Among other things, there is a probability of two-thirds that the world's population will not double in the twenty-first century

Maternal fish and shellfish intake and pregnancy outcomes: A prospective cohort study in Brittany, France

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Recommendations about risks and benefits of seafood intake during pregnancy have been published in the last decade, but the specific health effects of the different categories of seafood remain unknown. Fish and shellfish may differ according to their fatty acid content and their concentration of chemical pollutants and toxins. Not taking these particularities into account may result in underestimating of both the positive and negative effects of seafood on birth outcomes and partly explains inconsistent results on the subject.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In the PELAGIE cohort study, including 2398 pregnant women from Brittany, we fit multiple linear and logistic regression models to examine associations of fish (salt-water fish only) and shellfish intake before pregnancy with length of gestation, birthweight, and risks of preterm births, low birthweight or small-for-gestational-age (SGA) babies.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>When fish and shellfish consumptions were considered simultaneously, we observed a decrease in the risk of SGA birth with increasing frequency of fish intake: OR = 0.57 (95%CI: 0.31 to 1.05) for women eating fish twice a week or more compared with those eating it less than once a month. The risk of SGA birth was significantly higher among women eating shellfish twice a week or more than among those eating it less than once a month: OR = 2.14 (95%CI: 1.13 to 4.07). Each additional monthly meal including fish was significantly related to an increase in gestational length of 0.02 week (95%CI: 0.002 to 0.035). No association was observed with birthweight or preterm birth.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These results suggest that different categories of seafood may be differently associated with birth outcomes, fish consumption with increased length of gestation and shellfish consumption with decreased fetal growth.</p

Autism as a disorder of neural information processing: directions for research and targets for therapy

The broad variation in phenotypes and severities within autism spectrum disorders suggests the involvement of multiple predisposing factors, interacting in complex ways with normal developmental courses and gradients. Identification of these factors, and the common developmental path into which theyfeed, is hampered bythe large degrees of convergence from causal factors to altered brain development, and divergence from abnormal brain development into altered cognition and behaviour. Genetic, neurochemical, neuroimaging and behavioural findings on autism, as well as studies of normal development and of genetic syndromes that share symptoms with autism, offer hypotheses as to the nature of causal factors and their possible effects on the structure and dynamics of neural systems. Such alterations in neural properties may in turn perturb activity-dependent development, giving rise to a complex behavioural syndrome many steps removed from the root causes. Animal models based on genetic, neurochemical, neurophysiological, and behavioural manipulations offer the possibility of exploring these developmental processes in detail, as do human studies addressing endophenotypes beyond the diagnosis itself

Leishmania HASP and SHERP Genes are Required for In Vivo Differentiation, Parasite Transmission and Virulence Attenuation in the Host

Differentiation of extracellular Leishmania promastigotes within their sand fly vector, termed metacyclogenesis, is considered to be essential for parasites to regain mammalian host infectivity. Metacyclogenesis is accompanied by changes in the local parasite environment, including secretion of complex glycoconjugates within the promastigote secretory gel and colonization and degradation of the sand fly stomodeal valve. Deletion of the stage-regulated HASP and SHERP genes on chromosome 23 of Leishmania major is known to stall metacyclogenesis in the sand fly but not in in vitro culture. Here, parasite mutants deficient in specific genes within the HASP/SHERP chromosomal region have been used to investigate their role in metacyclogenesis, parasite transmission and establishment of infection. Metacyclogenesis was stalled in HASP/SHERP mutants in vivo and, although still capable of osmotaxis, these mutants failed to secrete promastigote secretory gel, correlating with a lack of parasite accumulation in the thoracic midgut and failure to colonise the stomodeal valve. These defects prevented parasite transmission to a new mammalian host. Sand fly midgut homogenates modulated parasite behaviour in vitro, suggesting a role for molecular interactions between parasite and vector in Leishmania development within the sand fly. For the first time, stage-regulated expression of the small HASPA proteins in Leishmania (Leishmania) has been demonstrated: HASPA2 is expressed only in extracellular promastigotes and HASPA1 only in intracellular amastigotes. Despite its lack of expression in amastigotes, replacement of HASPA2 into the null locus background delays onset of pathology in BALB/c mice. This HASPA2-dependent effect is reversed by HASPA1 gene addition, suggesting that the HASPAs may have a role in host immunomodulation

A cross-sectional study of the number and frequency of terms used to refer to knowledge translation in a body of health literature in 2006: a Tower of Babel?

<p/> <p>Background</p> <p>The study of implementing research findings into practice is rapidly growing and has acquired many competing names (<it>e.g</it>., dissemination, uptake, utilization, translation) and contributing disciplines. The use of multiple terms across disciplines pose barriers to communication and progress for applying research findings. We sought to establish an inventory of terms describing this field and how often authors use them in a collection of health literature published in 2006.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We refer to this field as knowledge translation (KT). Terms describing aspects of KT and their definitions were collected from literature, the internet, reports, textbooks, and contact with experts. We compiled a database of KT and other articles by reading 12 healthcare journals representing multiple disciplines. All articles published in these journals in 2006 were categorized as being KT or not. The KT articles (all KT) were further categorized, if possible, for whether they described KT projects or implementations (KT application articles), or presented the theoretical basis, models, tools, methods, or techniques of KT (KT theory articles). Accuracy was checked using duplicate reading. Custom designed software determined how often KT terms were used in the titles and abstracts of articles categorized as being KT.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 2,603 articles were assessed, and 581 were identified as KT articles. Of these, 201 described KT applications, and 153 included KT theory. Of the 100 KT terms collected, 46 were used by the authors in the titles or abstracts of articles categorized as being KT. For all 581 KT articles, eight terms or term variations used by authors were highly discriminating for separating KT and non-KT articles (p < 0.001): implementation, adoption, quality improvement, dissemination, complex intervention (with multiple endings), implementation (within three words of) research, and complex intervention. More KT terms were associated with KT application articles (n = 13) and KT theory articles (n = 18).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We collected 100 terms describing KT research. Authors used 46 of them in titles and abstracts of KT articles. Of these, approximately half discriminated between KT and non-KT articles. Thus, the need for consolidation and consistent use of fewer terms related to KT research is evident.</p

Arp2/3 Complex Regulates Asymmetric Division and Cytokinesis in Mouse Oocytes

Mammalian oocyte meiotic maturation involves oocyte polarization and a unique asymmetric division, but until now, the underlying mechanisms have been poorly understood. Arp2/3 complex has been shown to regulate actin nucleation and is widely involved in a diverse range of processes such as cell locomotion, phagocytosis and the establishment of cell polarity. Whether Arp2/3 complex participates in oocyte polarization and asymmetric division is unknown. The present study investigated the expression and functions of Arp2/3 complex during mouse oocyte meiotic maturation. Immunofluorescent staining showed that the Arp2/3 complex was restricted to the cortex, with a thickened cap above the meiotic apparatus, and that this localization pattern was depended on actin. Disruption of Arp2/3 complex by a newly-found specific inhibitor CK666, as well as by Arpc2 and Arpc3 RNAi, resulted in a range of effects. These included the failure of asymmetric division, spindle migration, and the formation and completion of oocyte cytokinesis. The formation of the actin cap and cortical granule-free domain (CGFD) was also disrupted, which further confirmed the disruption of spindle migration. Our data suggest that the Arp2/3 complex probably regulates oocyte polarization through its effect on spindle migration, asymmetric division and cytokinesis during mouse oocyte meiotic maturation

A bioavailable strontium (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr) isoscape for Aotearoa New Zealand: Implications for food forensics and biosecurity

As people, animals and materials are transported across increasingly large distances in a globalized world, threats to our biosecurity and food security are rising. Aotearoa New Zealand is an island nation with many endemic species, a strong local agricultural industry, and a need to protect these from pest threats, as well as the economy from fraudulent commodities. Mitigation of such threats is much more effective if their origins and pathways for entry are understood. We propose that this may be addressed in Aotearoa using strontium isotope analysis of both pests and products. Bioavailable radiogenic isotopes of strontium are ubiquitous markers of provenance that are increasingly used to trace the origin of animals and plants as well as products, but currently a baseline map across Aotearoa is lacking, preventing use of this technique. Here, we have improved an existing methodology to develop a regional bioavailable strontium isoscape using the best available geospatial datasets for Aotearoa. The isoscape explains 53% of the variation (R² = 0.53 and RMSE = 0.00098) across the region, for which the primary drivers are the underlying geology, soil pH, and aerosol deposition (dust and sea salt). We tested the potential of this model to determine the origin of cow milk produced across Aotearoa. Predictions for cow milk (n = 33) highlighted all potential origin locations that share similar ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr values, with the closest predictions averaging 7.05 km away from their true place of origin. These results demonstrate that this bioavailable strontium isoscape is effective for tracing locally produced agricultural products in Aotearoa. Accordingly, it could be used to certify the origin of Aotearoa’s products, while also helping to determine if new pest detections were of locally breeding populations or not, or to raise awareness of imported illegal agricultural products