A New Approach to Evaluate and Reduce Uncertainty of Model-Based Biodiversity Projections for Conservation Policy Formulation

Biodiversity projections with uncertainty estimates under different climate, land-use, and policy scenarios are essential to setting and achieving international targets to mitigate biodiversity loss. Evaluating and improving biodiversity predictions to better inform policy decisions remains a central conservation goal and challenge. A comprehensive strategy to evaluate and reduce uncertainty of model outputs against observed measurements and multiple models would help to produce more robust biodiversity predictions. We propose an approach that integrates biodiversity models and emerging remote sensing and in-situ data streams to evaluate and reduce uncertainty with the goal of improving policy-relevant biodiversity predictions. In this article, we describe a multivariate approach to directly and indirectly evaluate and constrain model uncertainty, demonstrate a proof of concept of this approach, embed the concept within the broader context of model evaluation and scenario analysis for conservation policy, and highlight lessons from other modeling communities

School Effects on the Wellbeing of Children and Adolescents

Well-being is a multidimensional construct, with psychological, physical and social components. As theoretical basis to help understand this concept and how it relates to school, we propose the Self-Determination Theory, which contends that self-determined motivation and personality integration, growth and well-being are dependent on a healthy balance of three innate psychological needs of autonomy, relatedness and competence. Thus, current indicators involve school effects on children’s well-being, in many diverse modalities which have been explored. Some are described in this chapter, mainly: the importance of peer relationships; the benefits of friendship; the effects of schools in conjunction with some forms of family influence; the school climate in terms of safety and physical ecology; the relevance of the teacher input; the school goal structure and the implementation of cooperative learning. All these parameters have an influence in promoting optimal functioning among children and increasing their well-being by meeting the above mentioned needs. The empirical support for the importance of schools indicates significant small effects, which often translate into important real-life effects as it is admitted at present. The conclusion is that schools do make a difference in children’s peer relationships and well-being

Mechanisms of T cell organotropism

F.M.M.-B. is supported by the British Heart Foundation, the Medical Research Council of the UK and the Gates Foundation

Detection of OXA-48-like-producing Enterobacterales in Irish recreational water

The rapid dissemination of carbapenemase-producing&nbsp;Enterobacterales&nbsp;(CPE) is a major public health concern. The role that the aquatic environment plays in this dissemination is underexplored. This study aimed to examine seawater as a reservoir for CPE. Seawater sampling took place at a bathing site throughout the 2017 bathing season. Each 30 L sample (n = 6) was filtered using the CapE filtration system. Wastewater samples (200 mL) (pre-treatment (n = 3) and post-treatment (n = 3)) were obtained from a nearby secondary wastewater treatment plant, during the same time period. All samples were examined for CPE. Whole genome sequencing of confirmed CPE was carried out using Illumina sequencing. Isolate genomes were hosted in corresponding BIGSdb databases and analyses were performed using multiple web-based tools. CPE was detected in 2/6 seawater samples. It was not detected in any wastewater samples. OXA-48-like-producing ST131&nbsp;Escherichia coli&nbsp;(Ec_BM707) was isolated from a seawater sample collected in May 2017 and OXA-48-like-producing ST101&nbsp;Klebsiella pneumoniae&nbsp;(Kp_BM758) was isolated from a seawater sample collected in August 2017. The genomes of the environmental isolates were compared to a collection of previously described Irish clinical OXA-48-like-producing&nbsp;Enterobacterales&nbsp;(n = 105). Ec_BM707 and Kp_BM758 harboured&nbsp;blaOXA-48&nbsp;on similar mobile genetic elements to those identified in the clinical collection (pOXA-48 fragment in Ec_BM707 and IncL(pOXA-48) plasmid in Kp_BM758). Genetic similarities were observed between Ec_BM707 and several of the clinical ST131&nbsp;E. coli,&nbsp;with allele matches at up to 98.2% of 2513 core genome multilocus sequence type (cgMLST) loci. In contrast, Kp_BM758 and the 34 clinical&nbsp;K. pneumoniae&nbsp;were genetically distant. The source of the CPE at this site was not identified. The detection of OXA-48-like-producing ST131&nbsp;E. coli&nbsp;and OXA-48-like-producing ST101&nbsp;K. pneumoniae&nbsp;in Irish recreational water is a concern. The potential for contamination of the aquatic environment to contribute to dissemination of CPE in Europe warrants further study.</p

Analysis of genetic diversity and conservation priorities in Iberian pigs based on microsatellite markers

The Iberian breed is the most important pig population of the Mediterranean type. The genetic structure of two strains (Torbiscal and Guadyerbas) and three varieties (Retinto, Entrepelado and Lampiño) of this breed was studied using 173 pigs genotyped for 36 microsatellites. In addition, 40 pigs of the related Duroc breed were also analysed. In the 1960s, the Iberian breed's numbers were severely reduced by disease, due to economic change and to crossbreeding. Varieties are in danger of disappearance or blending. A new conservation strategy is required. An analysis was performed that allows us to ascertain the loss or gain of genetic diversity if one or several subpopulations are removed. The results are compared with those using the Weitzman method. The two methodologies produce conservation priorities that are completely different, the reason being that the Weitzman method does not take into account the within-population genetic diversity. We apply optimal contribution theory and a new procedure for cluster analysis, and discuss their value in the general framework of the problems of setting of priorities and tactics for the conservation of genetic resources

Analysis of the invasiveness of spotted wing Drosophila (Drosophila suzukii) in North America, Europe, and the Mediterranean Basin

The polyphagous Asian vinegar fly Drosophila suzukii (spotted wing Drosophila) is a native of Eastern and Southeastern Asia. It emerged as an important invasive insect pest of berries and stone fruits in the Americas and Europe beginning in 2008. Species distribution models are commonly used for analyzing the extant and potential range expansion of invasive species. Previous modeling efforts for D. suzukii include a degree-day model, a MaxEnt ecological niche model, a demographic model incorporating the effects of temperature, and a preliminary mechanistic physiologically-based demographic model (PBDM). In the present analysis, we refine the PBDM for D. suzukii based on biological data reported in the literature. The PBDM is used to assess the effects of temperature and relative humidity from a recently published global climate dataset (AgMERRA) on the prospective geographic distribution and relative abundance of the pest in the USA and Mexico, and in Europe and the Mediterranean Basin. Our focus is on areas of recent invasion and of predicted higher invasiveness in these areas. Although the species is native to Asia and is of putative temperate origins, it has established in subtropical to north temperate zones worldwide where it infests a wide range of wild and domesticated berries and stone fruits. The model captures the observed phenology of D. suzukii at specific locations, as well as the potential geographic distribution and relative favorability across larger regions. The main limiting factor is cold winter temperature in northern areas, though high temperatures and low relative humidity may be limiting in arid areas. The effect of greater cold tolerance in winter morph adults is explored