Counter-intuitive influence of Himalayan river morphodynamics on Indus Civilisation urban settlements

Urbanism in the Bronze-age Indus Civilisation (~4.6–3.9 thousand years before the present, ka) has been linked to water resources provided by large Himalayan river systems, although the largest concentrations of urban-scale Indus settlements are located far from extant Himalayan rivers. Here we analyse the sedimentary architecture, chronology and provenance of a major palaeochannel associated with many of these settlements. We show that the palaeochannel is a former course of the Sutlej River, the third largest of the present-day Himalayan rivers. Using optically stimulated luminescence dating of sand grains, we demonstrate that flow of the Sutlej in this course terminated considerably earlier than Indus occupation, with diversion to its present course complete shortly after ~8 ka. Indus urban settlements thus developed along an abandoned river valley rather than an active Himalayan river. Confinement of the Sutlej to its present incised course after ~8 ka likely reduced its propensity to re-route frequently thus enabling long-term stability for Indus settlements sited along the relict palaeochannel

An Exact Diagonalization Demonstration of Incommensurability and Rigid Band Filling for N Holes in the t-J Model

We have calculated S(q) and the single particle distribution function for N holes in the t - J model on a non--square sqrt{8} X sqrt{32} 16--site lattice with periodic boundary conditions; we justify the use of this lattice in compariosn to those of having the full square symmetry of the bulk. This new cluster has a high density of vec k points along the diagonal of reciprocal space, viz. along k = (k,k). The results clearly demonstrate that when the single hole problem has a ground state with a system momentum of vec k = (pi/2,pi/2), the resulting ground state for N holes involves a shift of the peak of the system's structure factor away from the antiferromagnetic state. This shift effectively increases continuously with N. When the single hole problem has a ground state with a momentum that is not equal to k = (pi/2,pi/2), then the above--mentioned incommensurability for N holes is not found. The results for the incommensurate ground states can be understood in terms of rigid--band filling: the effective occupation of the single hole k = (pi/2,pi/2) states is demonstrated by the evaluation of the single particle momentum distribution function . Unlike many previous studies, we show that for the many hole ground state the occupied momentum states are indeed k = (+/- pi/2,+/- pi/2) states.Comment: Revtex 3.0; 23 pages, 1 table, and 13 figures, all include

Confined granular packings: structure, stress, and forces

The structure and stresses of static granular packs in cylindrical containers are studied using large-scale discrete element molecular dynamics simulations in three dimensions. We generate packings by both pouring and sedimentation and examine how the final state depends on the method of construction. The vertical stress becomes depth-independent for deep piles and we compare these stress depth-profiles to the classical Janssen theory. The majority of the tangential forces for particle-wall contacts are found to be close to the Coulomb failure criterion, in agreement with the theory of Janssen, while particle-particle contacts in the bulk are far from the Coulomb criterion. In addition, we show that a linear hydrostatic-like region at the top of the packings unexplained by the Janssen theory arises because most of the particle-wall tangential forces in this region are far from the Coulomb yield criterion. The distributions of particle-particle and particle-wall contact forces $P(f)$ exhibit exponential-like decay at large forces in agreement with previous studies.Comment: 11 pages, 11 figures, submitted to PRE (v2) added new references, fixed typo

A standardization approach to compare treatment safety and effectiveness outcomes between clinical trials and real-world populations in psoriasis.

BACKGROUND: Patients recruited in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for biologic therapies in psoriasis are not fully representative of the real-world psoriasis population. OBJECTIVES: Firstly, to investigate whether patient characteristics are associated with being included in a psoriasis RCT. Secondly, to estimate the differences in the incidence of severe adverse events (SAEs) and the response rate between RCT and real-world populations of patients on biologic therapies for psoriasis using a standardization method. METHODS: Data from the British Association of Dermatologists Biologics and Immunomodulators Register (BADBIR) were appended to individual participant-level data from two RCTs assessing ustekinumab in patients with psoriasis. Baseline variables were assessed for association of being in an RCT using a multivariable logistic regression model. Propensity score weights were derived to reweigh the registry population so that variables had the distribution of the trial population. We measured the C-statistic of the model with trial status as the dependent variable, and the risk differences in the incidence rate of SAEs in the first year and Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) after 6 months in the BADBIR cohort before and after weighting. RESULTS: In total 6790 registry and 2021 RCT participants were included. The multivariable logistic regression model had a C-statistic of 0.82 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.81-0.83]. The risk differences for the incidence rate of SAEs and the proportion of patients with PASI < 1.5 were 9.27 (95% CI -3.91-22.5) per 1000 person-years and 0.95 (95% CI -1.98-4.15), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that RCTs of biologic therapies in patients with psoriasis are not fully representative of the real-world population, but this lack of external validity does not account for the efficacy-effectiveness gap. What's already known about this topic? Patients with psoriasis who would not be eligible for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) investigating biologic therapies have a greater risk of serious adverse events and lower treatment effectiveness than patients who would have been eligible. What does this study add? Baseline patient characteristics were shown to be predictive of whether a patient would have been eligible for enrolment in an RCT for psoriasis biologic therapy. We did not find any efficacy-effectiveness gap between the sample representative of the real-world population of patients with psoriasis and the sample representative of the RCT population. Factors outside of baseline patient characteristics, such as observer effect and higher adherence in RCTs, may be more influential in any efficacy-effectiveness gap between trial and real-world populations of patients with psoriasis

Risk of major cardiovascular events in patients with psoriasis receiving biologic therapies: a prospective cohort study

Background: The cardiovascular safety profile of biologic therapies used for psoriasis is unclear. Objectives: To compare the risk of major cardiovascular events (CVEs; acute coronary syndrome, unstable angina, myocardial infarction and stroke) in patients with chronic plaque psoriasis treated with adalimumab, etanercept or ustekinumab in a large prospective cohort. Methods: Prospective cohort study examining the comparative risk of major CVEs was conducted using the British Association of Dermatologists Biologics and Immunomodulators Register. The main analysis compared adults with chronic plaque psoriasis receiving ustekinumab with tumour necrosis‐α inhibitors (TNFi: etanercept and adalimumab), whilst the secondary analyses compared ustekinumab, etanercept or methotrexate against adalimumab. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using overlap weights by propensity score to balance baseline covariates among comparison groups. Results: We included 5468 biologic‐naïve patients subsequently exposed (951 ustekinumab; 1313 etanercept; and 3204 adalimumab) in the main analysis. The secondary analyses also included 2189 patients receiving methotrexate. The median (p25–p75) follow‐up times for patients using ustekinumab, TNFi, adalimumab, etanercept and methotrexate were as follows: 2.01 (1.16–3.21), 1.93 (1.05–3.34), 1.94 (1.09–3.32), 1.92 (0.93–3.45) and 1.43 (0.84–2.53) years, respectively. Ustekinumab, TNFi, adalimumab, etanercept and methotrexate groups had 7, 29, 23, 6 and 9 patients experiencing major CVEs, respectively. No differences in the risk of major CVEs were observed between biologic therapies [adjusted HR for ustekinumab vs. TNFi: 0.96 (95% CI 0.41–2.22); ustekinumab vs. adalimumab: 0.81 (0.30–2.17); etanercept vs. adalimumab: 0.81 (0.28–2.30)] and methotrexate against adalimumab [1.05 (0.34–3.28)]. Conclusions: In this large prospective cohort study, we found no significant differences in the risk of major CVEs between three different biologic therapies and methotrexate. Additional studies, with longer term follow‐up, are needed to investigate the potential effects of biologic therapies on incidence of major CVEs

Identifying demographic, social and clinical predictors of biologic therapy effectiveness in psoriasis: a multicentre longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Biologic therapies have revolutionized the treatment of moderate-to-severe psoriasis. However, for reasons largely unknown, many patients do not respond or lose response to these drugs. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate demographic, social and clinical factors that could be used to predict effectiveness and stratify response to biologic therapies in psoriasis. METHODS: Using a multicentre, observational, prospective pharmacovigilance study (BADBIR), we identified biologic-naive patients starting biologics with outcome data at 6 (n = 3079) and 12 (n = 3110) months. Associations between 31 putative predictors and outcomes were investigated in univariate and multivariable regression analyses. Potential stratifiers of treatment response were investigated with statistical interactions. RESULTS: Eight factors associated with reduced odds of achieving = 90% improvement in Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI 90) at 6 months were identified (described as odds ratio and 95% confidence interval): demographic (female sex, 0·78, 0·66-0·93); social (unemployment, 0·67, 0·45-0·99); unemployment due to ill health (0·62, 0·48-0·82); ex- and current smoking (0·81, 0·66-0·99 and 0·79, 0·63-0·99, respectively); clinical factors (high weight, 0·99, 0·99-0·99); psoriasis of the palms and/or soles (0·75, 0·61-0·91); and presence of small plaques only compared with small and large plaques (0·78, 0·62-0·96). White ethnicity (1·48, 1·12-1·97) and higher baseline PASI (1·04, 1·03-1·04) were associated with increased odds of achieving PASI 90. The findings were largely consistent at 12 months. There was little evidence for predictors of differential treatment response. CONCLUSIONS: Psoriasis phenotype and potentially modifiable factors are associated with poor outcomes with biologics, underscoring the need for lifestyle management. Effect sizes suggest that these factors alone cannot inform treatment selection

Development and validation of a multivariable risk prediction model for serious infection in patients with psoriasis receiving systemic therapy

BACKGROUND: Patients with psoriasis are often concerned about the risk of serious infection associated with systemic psoriasis treatments. OBJECTIVES: To develop and externally validate a prediction model for serious infection in patients with psoriasis within 1 year of starting systemic therapies. METHODS: The risk prediction model was developed using the British Association of Dermatologists Biologic Interventions Register (BADBIR), and the German Psoriasis Registry PsoBest was used as the validation dataset. Model discrimination and calibration were assessed internally and externally using the C-statistic, the calibration slope and the calibration in the large. RESULTS: Overall 175 (1·7%) out of 10 033 participants from BADBIR and 41 (1·7%) out of 2423 participants from PsoBest developed a serious infection within 1 year of therapy initiation. Selected predictors in a multiple logistic regression model included nine baseline covariates, and starting infliximab was the strongest predictor. Evaluation of model performance showed a bootstrap optimism-corrected C-statistic of 0·64 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0·60-0·69], calibration in the large of 0·02 (95% CI -0·14 to 0·17) and a calibration slope of 0·88 (95% CI 0·70-1·07), while external validation performance was poor, with C-statistic 0·52 (95% CI 0·42-0·62), calibration in the large 0·06 (95% CI -0·25 to 0·37) and calibration slope 0·36 (95% CI -0·24 to 0·97). CONCLUSIONS: We present the first results of the development of a multivariable prediction model. This model may help patients and dermatologists in the U.K. and the Republic of Ireland to identify modifiable risk factors and inform therapy choice in a shared decision-making process

Grain Surface Models and Data for Astrochemistry

AbstractThe cross-disciplinary field of astrochemistry exists to understand the formation, destruction, and survival of molecules in astrophysical environments. Molecules in space are synthesized via a large variety of gas-phase reactions, and reactions on dust-grain surfaces, where the surface acts as a catalyst. A broad consensus has been reached in the astrochemistry community on how to suitably treat gas-phase processes in models, and also on how to present the necessary reaction data in databases; however, no such consensus has yet been reached for grain-surface processes. A team of ∼25 experts covering observational, laboratory and theoretical (astro)chemistry met in summer of 2014 at the Lorentz Center in Leiden with the aim to provide solutions for this problem and to review the current state-of-the-art of grain surface models, both in terms of technical implementation into models as well as the most up-to-date information available from experiments and chemical computations. This review builds on the results of this workshop and gives an outlook for future directions

Optimizing metastatic-cascade-dependent Rac1 targeting in breast cancer: guidance using optical window intravital FRET imaging

Assessing drug response within live native tissue provides increased fidelity with regards to optimizing efficacy while minimizing off-target effects. Here, using longitudinal intravital imaging of a Rac1-Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) biosensor mouse coupled with in vivo photoswitching to track intratumoral movement, we help guide treatment scheduling in a live breast cancer setting to impair metastatic progression. We uncover altered Rac1 activity at the center versus invasive border of tumors and demonstrate enhanced Rac1 activity of cells in close proximity to live tumor vasculature using optical window imaging. We further reveal that Rac1 inhibition can enhance tumor cell vulnerability to fluid-flow-induced shear stress and therefore improves overall anti-metastatic response to therapy during transit to secondary sites such as the lung. Collectively, this study demonstrates the utility of single-cell intravital imaging in vivo to demonstrate that Rac1 inhibition can reduce tumor progression and metastases in an autochthonous setting to improve overall survival.Alessia Floerchinger … Michael S. Sasmuel … et al

Global reporting of cases of COVID-19 in psoriasis and atopic dermatitis: an opportunity to inform care during a pandemic.

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