A model for dynamic allocation of human attention among multiple tasks

The problem of multi-task attention allocation with special reference to aircraft piloting is discussed with the experimental paradigm used to characterize this situation and the experimental results obtained in the first phase of the research. A qualitative description of an approach to mathematical modeling, and some results obtained with it are also presented to indicate what aspects of the model are most promising. Two appendices are given which (1) discuss the model in relation to graph theory and optimization and (2) specify the optimization algorithm of the model

Modeling human decision making behavior in supervisory control

An optimal decision control model was developed, which is based primarily on a dynamic programming algorithm which looks at all the available task possibilities, charts an optimal trajectory, and commits itself to do the first step (i.e., follow the optimal trajectory during the next time period), and then iterates the calculation. A Bayesian estimator was included which estimates the tasks which might occur in the immediate future and provides this information to the dynamic programming routine. Preliminary trials comparing the human subject's performance to that of the optimal model show a great similarity, but indicate that the human skips certain movements which require quick change in strategy

Measuring the measurement error: A method to qualitatively validate survey data

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.Empirical social science relies heavily on self-reported data, but subjects may misreport behaviors, especially sensitive ones such as crime or drug abuse. If a treatment influences survey misreporting, it biases causal estimates. We develop a validation technique that uses intensive qualitative work to assess survey misreporting and pilot it in a field experiment where subjects were assigned to receive cash, therapy, both, or neither. According to survey responses, both treatments reduced crime and other sensitive behaviors. Local researchers spent several days with a random subsample of subjects after surveys, building trust and obtaining verbal confirmation of four sensitive behaviors and two expenditures. In this instance, validation showed survey underreporting of most sensitive behaviors was low and uncorrelated with treatment, while expenditures were under reported in the survey across all arms, but especially in the control group. We use these data to develop measurement error bounds on treatment effects estimated from surveys.This study was funded by the National Science Foundation (SES-1317506), the World Bank's Learning on Gender and Conflict in Africa (LOGiCA) trust fund, the World Bank's Italian Children and Youth (CHYAO) trust fund, the Department of International Development, UK (DFID, GA-C1-RA2-114) via the Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), a Vanguard Charitable Trust, the American People through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID, AID-OAA-A-12-00066) DCHA/CMM office, and the Robert Wood Johnson Health and Society Scholars Program at Harvard University (Cohort 5). The contents of this study are the sole responsibility of authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of their employers or any of these funding agencies or governments

Developing a serocorrelate of protection against invasive group B streptococcus disease in pregnant women: a feasibility study.

BACKGROUND: Group B streptococcus is the leading cause of infection in infants. Currently, intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis is the major strategy to prevent invasive group B streptococcus disease. However, intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis does not prevent maternal sepsis, premature births, stillbirths or late-onset disease. Maternal vaccination may offer an alternative strategy. Multivalent polysaccharide protein conjugate vaccine development is under way and a serocorrelate of protection is needed to expedite vaccine licensure. OBJECTIVES: The ultimate aim of this work is to determine the correlate of protection against the major group B streptococcus disease-causing serotypes in infants in the UK. The aim of this feasibility study is to test key operational aspects of the study design. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study of pregnant women and their infants in a 6-month period (1 July to 31 December 2018). SETTING: Five secondary and tertiary hospitals from London and South England. National iGBS disease surveillance was conducted in all trusts in England and Wales. PARTICIPANTS: Pregnant women aged ≥ 18 years who were delivering at one of the selected hospitals and who provided consent during the study period. There were no exclusion criteria. INTERVENTIONS: No interventions were performed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: (1) To test the feasibility of collecting serum at delivery from a large cohort of pregnant women. (2) To test the key operational aspects for a proposed large serocorrelates study. (3) To test the feasibility of collecting samples from those with invasive group B streptococcus. RESULTS: A total of 1823 women were recruited during the study period. Overall, 85% of serum samples were collected at three sites collecting only cord blood. At the two sites collecting maternal, cord and infant blood samples, the collection rate was 60%. A total of 614 women were screened for group B streptococcus with a colonisation rate of 22% (serotype distribution: 30% III, 25% Ia, 16% II, 14% Ib, 14% V and 1% IV). A blood sample was collected from 34 infants who were born to colonised women. Maternal and infant blood and the bacterial isolates for 15 newborns who developed invasive group B streptococcal disease during the study period were collected (serotype distribution: 29% III, 29% II, 21% Ia, 7% Ib, 7% IV and 7% V). LIMITATIONS: Recruitment and sample collection were dependent on the presence of research midwives rather than the whole clinical team. In addition, individualised consent limited the number of women who could be approached each day, and site set-up for the national surveillance study and the limited time period of this feasibility study limited recruitment of all eligible participants. CONCLUSIONS: We have verified the feasibility of collecting and processing rectovaginal swabs and blood samples in pregnant women, as well as samples from those with invasive group B streptococcal disease. We have made recommendations for the recruitment of cases within the proposed GBS3 study and for controls both within GBS3 and as an extension of this feasibility study. FUTURE WORK: A large case-control study comparing specific immunoglobulin G levels in mothers whose infants develop invasive group B streptococcal disease with those in colonised mothers whose infants do not develop invasive group B streptococcal disease is recommended. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN49326091; IRAS project identification number 246149/REC reference number 18/WM/0147. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 23, No. 67. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information

The Effect of Succinic Acid on Metabolic Profile in High-Fat Diet-Induced Obesity and Insulin Resistance

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Investigating TriHaloMethanes with respect to humidity

The disinfection of potable water has dramatically reduced the instances of Cholera and similar ailments within a population drawing upon that water source. There is however the possibility that Natural Organic Matter (NOM) can interact with the disinfection compounds to form Disinfection By-Products (DBP). One group of DBPs are Trihalomethanes (THMs) with several compounds of the group being suspected carcinogens. Within the UK the total concentration of all THMs within drinking water must not exceed 100µg/l. At present water authorities take samples of the water supply and return them to a central laboratory for analysis. This provides an accurate test but one which can involve a long lead time in discovering a potential hazard to public health. A Field Asymmetric Ion Mobility Spectrometer (FAIMS) sensor may be ideally placed to perform in situ continuous monitoring at particular sites. As part of a PhD co-sponsored by The Open University and Owlstone Nanotech Plc an investigation is ongoing to discover how sensitive a FAIMS device is with respect to THMs and humidity when sampling. Initial results and the method of data processing, which involves peak fitting to evolving spectra are presented

Quantification of ethyl acetate using FAIMS

The enjoyment of wine is based not only on its flavour but also its aroma. The presence of compounds, such as ethyl acetate, can add a desirable depth of body, richness and sweetness to a wine. However, if the levels exceed the human perception threshold (100 - 200 mg/l) an aroma similar to acetone becomes prevalent and the wine is regarded as spoilt.A study was undertaken to determine the concentration of ethyl acetate within wine using a Gas Chromatograph coupled with Field Asymmetric Ion Mobility Spectrometry (FAIMS). The use of FAIMS (also known as Differential Mobility Spectrometry) as a selective detector has increasingly become prevalent within analytical science. There is now a vibrant community of researchers working with the technique and different commercial systems are readily available. Two such systems are the Tourist and Lonestar instruments available from Owlstone Ltd. The Owlstone systems are characterised by the sensor being a solid state device, which imposes constraints on operational parameters but also offers opportunities over comparable devices. FAIMS technology requires the interaction of compounds both within the ionisation and separation region. To influence the interactions in these two regions studies were completed at elevated (compared to ambient) pressures and humidity. The study of ethyl acetate within wine provided an opportunity to investigate these effects and also provided a route for optimisation of the instrument for the study. It was found, in contrast to a previously reported investigation, that increasing the pressure resulted in a greater resolution of compounds. A more complicated relationship was observed with respect to humidity, believed attributable to water being an important constituent of reactive and product ion formation. Additional effects due to the presence of co-solvents were observed and subsequently managed so as to provide increased sensitivity. The quantification of ethyl acetate within wine was accomplished considerably below the human perception threshold providing the opportunity to better manage this multifarious compound throughout manufacture and the product lifecycle