Large Deviations Principle for a Large Class of One-Dimensional Markov Processes

We study the large deviations principle for one dimensional, continuous, homogeneous, strong Markov processes that do not necessarily behave locally as a Wiener process. Any strong Markov process $X_{t}$ in $\mathbb{R}$ that is continuous with probability one, under some minimal regularity conditions, is governed by a generalized elliptic operator $D_{v}D_{u}$, where $v$ and $u$ are two strictly increasing functions, $v$ is right continuous and $u$ is continuous. In this paper, we study large deviations principle for Markov processes whose infinitesimal generator is $\epsilon D_{v}D_{u}$ where $0<\epsilon\ll 1$. This result generalizes the classical large deviations results for a large class of one dimensional "classical" stochastic processes. Moreover, we consider reaction-diffusion equations governed by a generalized operator $D_{v}D_{u}$. We apply our results to the problem of wave front propagation for these type of reaction-diffusion equations.Comment: 23 page

COVID-19 Impact on Global Maritime Mobility

To prevent the outbreak of the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), many countries around the world went into lockdown and imposed unprecedented containment measures. These restrictions progressively produced changes to social behavior and global mobility patterns, evidently disrupting social and economic activities. Here, using maritime traffic data collected via a global network of AIS receivers, we analyze the effects that the COVID-19 pandemic and containment measures had on the shipping industry, which accounts alone for more than 80% of the world trade. We rely on multiple data-driven maritime mobility indexes to quantitatively assess ship mobility in a given unit of time. The mobility analysis here presented has a worldwide extent and is based on the computation of: CNM of all ships reporting their position and navigational status via AIS, number of active and idle ships, and fleet average speed. To highlight significant changes in shipping routes and operational patterns, we also compute and compare global and local density maps. We compare 2020 mobility levels to those of previous years assuming that an unchanged growth rate would have been achieved, if not for COVID-19. Following the outbreak, we find an unprecedented drop in maritime mobility, across all categories of commercial shipping. With few exceptions, a generally reduced activity is observable from March to June, when the most severe restrictions were in force. We quantify a variation of mobility between -5.62% and -13.77% for container ships, between +2.28% and -3.32% for dry bulk, between -0.22% and -9.27% for wet bulk, and between -19.57% and -42.77% for passenger traffic. This study is unprecedented for the uniqueness and completeness of the employed dataset, which comprises a trillion AIS messages broadcast worldwide by 50000 ships, a figure that closely parallels the documented size of the world merchant fleet

Systemic Risk and Default Clustering for Large Financial Systems

As it is known in the finance risk and macroeconomics literature, risk-sharing in large portfolios may increase the probability of creation of default clusters and of systemic risk. We review recent developments on mathematical and computational tools for the quantification of such phenomena. Limiting analysis such as law of large numbers and central limit theorems allow to approximate the distribution in large systems and study quantities such as the loss distribution in large portfolios. Large deviations analysis allow us to study the tail of the loss distribution and to identify pathways to default clustering. Sensitivity analysis allows to understand the most likely ways in which different effects, such as contagion and systematic risks, combine to lead to large default rates. Such results could give useful insights into how to optimally safeguard against such events.Comment: in Large Deviations and Asymptotic Methods in Finance, (Editors: P. Friz, J. Gatheral, A. Gulisashvili, A. Jacqier, J. Teichmann) , Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics, Vol. 110 2015

Migrant care workers at the intersection of rural belonging in small English communities

Shortage of staff in the private care sector brought migrant participants of this study to rural communities in northwest England. The care workers, fourteen highly skilled first-generation migrants, described experiences of feeling unsettled, despite residing in these communities for an average of nine years. Social divisions, such as their race, ethnicity, and gender, intersected in rural England to create an overwhelming, at times, feeling of being othered. We use intersectionality as a framework to examine the advantageous and disadvantageous positionings of migrant workers, alongside their strategies of resistance and adaptation, filling in the gaps that acculturation theory glosses over

Endovascular Treatment for Anterior Circulation Large-Vessel Occlusion Ischemic Stroke with Low ASPECTS: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: Endovascular treatment (EVT) for acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients presenting with Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS) 0-5 has not yet proven safe and effective by clinical trials. Objectives: The aim of the study was to assess whether EVT in AIS patients presenting with low ASPECTS is beneficial. Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis of available studies in accordance with the PRISMA statement. Data sources and methods: We have searched MEDLINE, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and reference lists of articles published until 28 May 2022 with the aim to calculate (1) modified Rankin scale (mRS) score 0-3 at 3 months, (2) mRS score 0-2 at 3 months, (3) symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH), and (3) mortality at 3 months. Results: Overall, 24 eligible studies were included in the meta-analysis, comprising a total of 2539 AIS patients with ASPECTS 0-5 treated with EVT. The pooled proportion of EVT-treated patients achieving mRS 0-3 at 3 months was calculated at 38.4%. The pooled proportion of EVT-treated patients achieving mRS 0-2 at 3 months was 25.7%. Regarding safety outcomes, sICH occurred in 12.8% of patients. The 3-month pooled mortality was 30%. In pairwise meta-analysis, patients treated with EVT had a higher likelihood of achieving mRS 0-3 at 3 months compared with patients treated with best medical therapy (BMT, OR: 2.41). sICH occurred more frequently in EVT-treated patients compared with the BMT-treated patients (OR: 2.30). Mortality at 3 months was not different between the two treatment groups (OR: 0.71). Conclusion: EVT may be beneficial for AIS patients with low baseline ASPECTS despite an increased risk for sICH. Further data from randomized-controlled clinical trials are needed to elucidate the role of EVT in this subgroup of AIS patients. Registration: The protocol has been registered in the International Prospective Register of Ongoing Systematic Reviews PROSPERO; Registration Number: CRD42022334417.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

App-based COVID-19 syndromic surveillance and prediction of hospital admissions in COVID Symptom Study Sweden

The app-based COVID Symptom Study was launched in Sweden in April 2020 to contribute to real-time COVID-19 surveillance. We enrolled 143,531 study participants (≥18 years) who contributed 10.6 million daily symptom reports between April 29, 2020 and February 10, 2021. Here, we include data from 19,161 self-reported PCR tests to create a symptom-based model to estimate the individual probability of symptomatic COVID-19, with an AUC of 0.78 (95% CI 0.74–0.83) in an external dataset. These individual probabilities are employed to estimate daily regional COVID-19 prevalence, which are in turn used together with current hospital data to predict next week COVID-19 hospital admissions. We show that this hospital prediction model demonstrates a lower median absolute percentage error (MdAPE: 25.9%) across the five most populated regions in Sweden during the first pandemic wave than a model based on case notifications (MdAPE: 30.3%). During the second wave, the error rates are similar. When we apply the same model to an English dataset, not including local COVID-19 test data, we observe MdAPEs of 22.3% and 19.0% during the first and second pandemic waves, respectively, highlighting the transferability of the prediction model

Research trends in combinatorial optimization

Acknowledgments This work has been partially funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation, and Universities through the project COGDRIVE (DPI2017-86915-C3-3-R). In this context, we would also like to thank the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. Open access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Prognostic factors affecting long-term outcomes in patients with resected stage IIIA pN2 non-small-cell lung cancer: 5-year follow-up of a phase II study

The aim was to investigate the efficacy of neoadjuvant docetaxel–cisplatin and identify prognostic factors for outcome in locally advanced stage IIIA (pN2 by mediastinoscopy) non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. In all, 75 patients (from 90 enrolled) underwent tumour resection after three 3-week cycles of docetaxel 85 mg m−2 (day 1) plus cisplatin 40 or 50 mg m−2 (days 1 and 2). Therapy was well tolerated (overall grade 3 toxicity occurred in 48% patients; no grade 4 nonhaematological toxicity was reported), with no observed late toxicities. Median overall survival (OS) and event-free survival (EFS) times were 35 and 15 months, respectively, in the 75 patients who underwent surgery; corresponding figures for all 90 patients enrolled were 28 and 12 months. At 3 years after initiating trial therapy, 27 out of 75 patients (36%) were alive and tumour free. At 5-year follow-up, 60 and 65% of patients had local relapse and distant metastases, respectively. The most common sites of distant metastases were the lung (24%) and brain (17%). Factors associated with OS, EFS and risk of local relapse and distant metastases were complete tumour resection and chemotherapy activity (clinical response, pathologic response, mediastinal downstaging). Neoadjuvant docetaxel–cisplatin was effective and tolerable in stage IIIA pN2 NSCLC, with chemotherapy contributing significantly to outcomes