Great earthquakes in low strain rate continental interiors: An example from SE Kazakhstan

The Lepsy fault of the northern Tien Shan, SE Kazakhstan, extends E-W 120 km from the high mountains of the Dzhungarian Ala-tau, a subrange of the northern Tien Shan, into the low-lying Kazakh platform. It is an example of an active structure that connects a more rapidly deforming mountain region with an apparently stable continental region and follows a known Palaeozoic structure. Field-based and satellite observations reveal an ∼10 m vertical offset exceptionally preserved along the entire length of the fault. Geomorphic analysis and age control from radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence dating methods indicate that the scarp formed in the Holocene and was generated by at least two substantial earthquakes. The most recent event, dated to sometime after ∼400 years B.P., is likely to have ruptured the entire ∼120 km fault length in a Mw 7.5–8.2 earthquake. The Lepsy fault kinematics were characterized using digital elevation models and high-resolution satellite imagery, which indicate that the predominant sense of motion is reverse right lateral with a fault strike, dip, and slip vector azimuth of ∼110∘, 50∘S, and 317–343∘, respectively, which is consistent with predominant N-S shortening related to the India-Eurasia collision. In light of these observations, and because the activity of the Lepsy fault would have been hard to ascertain if it had not ruptured in the recent past, we note that the absence of known active faults within low-relief and low strain rate continental interiors does not always imply an absence of seismic hazard

Assessing the activity of faults in continental interiors: Palaeoseismic insights from SE Kazakhstan

The presence of fault scarps is a first-order criterion for identifying active faults. Yet the preservation of these features depends on the recurrence interval between surface rupturing events, combined with the rates of erosional and depositional processes that act on the landscape. Within arid continental interiors single earthquake scarps can be preserved for thousands of years, and yet the interval between surface ruptures on faults in these regions may be much longer, such that the lack of evidence for surface faulting in the morphology may not preclude activity on those faults. In this study we investigate the 50 km-long ‘Toraigyr’ thrust fault in the northern Tien Shan. From palaeoseismological trenching we show that two surface rupturing earthquakes occurred in the last $\textbf{39.9±2.7 ka}$ BP, but only the most recent event (3.15–3.6 ka BP) has a clear morphological expression. We conclude that a landscape reset took place in between the two events, likely as a consequence of the climatic change at the end of the last glacial maximum. These findings illustrate that in the Tien Shan evidence for the most recent active faulting can be easily obliterated by climatic processes due to the long earthquake recurrence intervals. Our results illustrate the problems related to the assessment of active tectonic deformation and seismic hazard assessments in continental interior settings.This study was financed by NERC and ESRC (Earthquakes without Frontiers project, Grant code: EwF_NE/J02001X/1_1), and the Centre for Observation and Modelling of Earthquakes and Tectonics (COMET). KOMPSAT-2 imagery was obtained through a category-1 award to RTW. EJC thanks St. Edmund Hall for travel support. RTW was supported during this research by a University Research Fellowship from the Royal Society of London

ПОЛЯ НАПРЯЖЕНИЙ ПО АФТЕРШОКАМ СИЛЬНЕЙШИХ ЗЕМЛЕТРЯСЕНИЙ ТЯНЬ-ШАНЯ

This study focused on the state of stress in the aftershock areas of the strongest earthquakes registered in Tien Shanon 11 August 1974 (MS=7.3), 24 March 1978 (MS=7.1), 01 November 1978 (MS=6.8), 19 August 1992 (MS=7.3), and 05 October 2008 (MS=6.9). These earthquakes occurred in similar geodynamic conditions in the zone of the nearly N–S oriented compression caused by the India-Eurasia collision. The parameters of the state of stress were determined by Yu.L. Rebetsky method of cataclastic analysis (MCA) of displacements on faults, based on the focal mechanisms of aftershocks. In the first stage of MCA, we determined the orientations of the principal stress axes, the Lode-Nadai coefficients, and the geodynamic types of the state of stress in the study area. The stress fields reconstructed from the aftershocks of different energy levels show that the principal deviatoric stress axes pattern becomes less orderly as the magnitude of seismic events decreases. A peculiar feature of the aftershock process is the misalignment of the axes of maximum compression in the mechanisms of the weakest aftershocks and the compression axis in the focal mechanism of the main seismic event. Most of the aftershocks were recorded west of the location of the main earthquake.Изучены особенности напряженного состояния афтершоковых областей сильнейших землетрясений, зарегистрированных на территории Тянь-Шаня: 11 августа 1974 г. (Мs=7.3), 24 марта 1978 г. (MS=7.0), 1 ноября 1978 г. (MS=6.8), 19 августа 1992 г. (MS=7.3) и 5 октября 2008 г. (MS=6.9). Рассматриваемые землетрясения произошли в сходных геодинамических условиях – в зоне близмеридионального сжатия за счет Индо-Евразийской коллизии. Восстановление параметров напряженного состояния проводилось по методу катакластического анализа разрывных смещений Ю.Л. Ребецкого с использованием механизмов очагов афтершоков. В работе рассматриваются результаты первого этапа МКА, позволившего реконструировать ориентацию главных осей напряжений и такие параметры, как коэффициент Лоде – Надаи и геодинамический тип напряженного состояния. Полученные поля напряжений по афтершокам разных энергетических уровней показывают уменьшение упорядоченности осей главных девиаторных напряжений по мере уменьшения магнитуд событий. Одной из особенностей афтершокового процесса является несоосность осей максимального сжатия механизмов наиболее слабых афтершоков и оси сжатия механизма очага главного события. Основная масса афтершоков регистрируется западне

Active Tectonics Around Almaty and along the Zailisky Alatau Rangefront

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017TC004657/abstractThe Zailisky Alatau is a >250-km-long mountain range in Southern Kazakhstan. Its northern rangefront around the major city of Almaty has more than 4 km topographic relief, yet in contrast to other large mountain fronts in the Tien Shan, little is known about its Late Quaternary tectonic activity despite several destructive earthquakes in the historical record. We analyse the tectonic geomorphology of the rangefront fault using field observations, differential GPS measurements of fault scarps, historical and recent satellite imagery, metre-scale topography derived from stereo satellite images, and decimetre-scale elevation models from UAV surveys. Fault scarps ranging in height from ~2 m to >20 m in alluvial fans indicate surface rupturing earthquakes occurred along the rangefront fault since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Minimum estimated magnitudes for those earthquakes are M6.8- 7. Radiocarbon dating results from charcoal layers in uplifted river terraces indicate a Holocene slip rate of ~1.2-2.2 mm/a. We find additional evidence for active tectonic deformation all along the Almaty rangefront, basinward in the Kazakh platform, and in the interior of the Zailisky mountain range. Our data indicate the seismic hazard faced by Almaty comes from a variety of sources, and we emphasize the problems related to urban growth into the loess-covered foothills and secondary earthquake effects. With our structural and geochronologic framework we present a schematic evolution of the Almaty rangefront that may be applicable to similar settings of tectonic shortening in the mountain ranges of Central Asia

STRESS FIELDS REVEALED BY AFTERSHOCKS OF THE STRONGEST EARTHQUAKES OF TIEN SHAN

This study focused on the state of stress in the aftershock areas of the strongest earthquakes registered in Tien Shanon 11 August 1974 (MS=7.3), 24 March 1978 (MS=7.1), 01 November 1978 (MS=6.8), 19 August 1992 (MS=7.3), and 05 October 2008 (MS=6.9). These earthquakes occurred in similar geodynamic conditions in the zone of the nearly N–S oriented compression caused by the India-Eurasia collision. The parameters of the state of stress were determined by Yu.L. Rebetsky method of cataclastic analysis (MCA) of displacements on faults, based on the focal mechanisms of aftershocks. In the first stage of MCA, we determined the orientations of the principal stress axes, the Lode-Nadai coefficients, and the geodynamic types of the state of stress in the study area. The stress fields reconstructed from the aftershocks of different energy levels show that the principal deviatoric stress axes pattern becomes less orderly as the magnitude of seismic events decreases. A peculiar feature of the aftershock process is the misalignment of the axes of maximum compression in the mechanisms of the weakest aftershocks and the compression axis in the focal mechanism of the main seismic event. Most of the aftershocks were recorded west of the location of the main earthquake

The Dzhungarian fault: Late Quaternary tectonics and slip rate of a major right-lateral strike-slip fault in the northern Tien Shan region

The Dzhungarian strike-slip fault of Central Asia is one of a series of long, NW-SE right-lateral strike-slip faults that are characteristic of the northern Tien Shan region and extends over 300 km from the high mountains into the Kazakh Platform. Our field-based and satellite observations reveal that the Dzhungarian fault can be characterized by three 100 km long sections based on variation in strike direction. Through morphological analysis of offset streams and alluvial fans, and through optically stimulated luminescence dating, we find that the Dzhungarian fault has a minimum average late Quaternary slip rate of 2.2 ± 0.8 mm/yr and accommodates N-S shortening related to the India-Eurasia collision. This shortening may also be partly accommodated by counterclockwise rotation about a vertical axis. Evidence for a possible paleo-earthquake rupture indicates that earthquakes up to at least Mw 7 can be associated with just the partitioned component of reverse slip on segments of the central section of the fault up to 30 km long. An event rupturing longer sections of the Dzhungarian fault has the potential to generate greater magnitude earthquakes (Mw 8); however, long time periods (e.g., thousands of years) are expected in order to accumulate enough strain to generate such earthquakes

Site effect analysis around the seismically induced Ananevo, Rockslide, Kyrgyzstan

In 1911, the surface-wave magnitude 8.2 Kemin earthquake hit northeastern Tien Shan (Kyrgyzstan), close to the cities of Bishkek and Almaty, the capitals of Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, respectively. Several hundreds of people were killed by the earthquake, some by indirect effects such as landslides and mudflows. A particular but nonfatal landslide triggered by the Kemin event was a rockslide in the vicinity of Ananevo, north of lake Issyk Kul (Kyrgyzstan) rockslide located above the fault zone activated in 1911. In the summer of 1999, a geophysical-seismological field trip was organized to study geology and to record seismic ground motions on and around the Ananevo rockslide. The work was part of project assessing seismogenic landslide hazard in northern Kyrgyzstan, based on various case studies of slope failures in connection with site-specific ground-motion dynamics. The geophysical investigations consisted of seismic refraction tests processed as 2D seismic tomographies and surface-wave inversion, which were combined to build a 3D geophysical model of the landslide site. Ground motions from small earthquakes were analyzed using several techniques to define site effects over the mountain massif. Both H/V and standard spectral ratios indicated lower dominant frequencies with stronger amplification in the crest region with respect to the mountain slope. These effects could be partially simulated by I D, 2D, and 3D finite-element modeling. By comparing the numerical results with the experimental data, the presence of a surficial low-velocity layer of varying thickness appeared to be the key factor controlling the ground motion around the rockslide

Assessing the activity of faults in continental interiors: palaeoseismic insights from SE Kazakhstan

The presence of fault scarps is a first-order criterion for identifying active faults. Yet the preservation of these features depends on the recurrence interval between surface rupturing events, combined with the rates of erosional and depositional processes that act on the landscape. Within arid continental interiors single earthquake scarps can be preserved for thousands of years, and yet the interval between surface ruptures on faults in these regions may be much longer, such that the lack of evidence for surface faulting in the morphology may not preclude activity on those faults. In this study we investigate the 50 km-long ‘Toraigyr’ thrust fault in the northern Tien Shan. From palaeoseismological trenching we show that two surface rupturing earthquakes occurred in the last 39.9±2.7 ka BP, but only the most recent event (3.15 – 3.6 ka BP) has a clear morphological expression. We conclude that a landscape reset took place in between the two events, likely as a consequence of the climatic change at the end of the last glacial maximum. These findings illustrate that in the Tien Shan evidence for the most recent active faulting can be easily obliterated by climatic processes due to the long earthquake recurrence intervals. Our results illustrate the problems related to the assessment of active tectonic deformation and seismic hazard assessments in continental interior settings