Capturing regional differences in flood vulnerability improves flood loss estimation

Flood vulnerability is quantified by loss models which are developed using either empirical or synthetic approaches. In reality, processes influencing flood risk are stochastic and loss predictions bear significant uncertainty, especially due to differences in vulnerability across exposed objects and regions. However, many state-of-the-art flood loss models are deterministic, i.e., they do not account for data and model uncertainty. The Bayesian Data-Driven Synthetic (BDDS) model was one of the first approaches that used empirical data to reduce the prediction errors at object-level and enhance the reliability of synthetic flood loss models. However, the BDDS model does not account for regional differences in vulnerability which may result in over-/under-estimation of losses in some regions. In order to overcome this limitation, this study introduces a hierarchical parameterization of the BDDS model which enhances synthetic flood loss model predictions by quantifying regional differences in vulnerability. The hierarchical parameterization makes optimal use of the process information contained in the overall data set for the various regional applications, so that it is particularly suitable for cases in which only a small amount of empirical data is available. The implementation and performance of the hierarchical parametrization is demonstrated with the Multi-Colored Manual (MCM) loss functions and empirical damage dataset from the UK consisting of residential buildings from the regions Appleby, Carlisle, Kendal and Cockermouth that suffered losses during the 2015 flood event. The developed model improves prediction accuracy of flood loss compared to MCM by reducing the absolute error and bias by at least 23 and 90%, respectively. The model reliability in terms of hit rate (i.e., the probability that the observed value lies in the 90% high density interval of predictions) is 88% for residential buildings from the same regions used for calibration and 73% for residential buildings from new regions. The approach is of high practical relevance for all regions where only limited amounts of empirical flood loss data is available

A consistent approach for probabilistic residential flood loss modeling in Europe

In view of globally increasing flood losses, a significantly improved and more efficient flood risk management and adaptation policy are needed. One prerequisite is reliable risk assessments on the continental scale. Flood loss modeling and risk assessments for Europe are until now based on regional approaches using deterministic depth‐damage functions. Uncertainties associated with the risk estimation are hardly known. To reduce these shortcomings, we present a novel, consistent approach for probabilistic flood loss modeling for Europe, based on the upscaling of the Bayesian Network Flood Loss Estimation MOdel for the private sector, BN‐FLEMOps. The model is applied on the mesoscale in the whole of Europe and can be adapted to regional situations. BN‐FLEMOps is validated in three case studies in Italy, Austria, and Germany. The officially reported loss figures of the past flood events are within the 95% quantile range of the probabilistic loss estimation, for all three case studies. In the Italian, Austrian, and German case studies, the median loss estimate shows an overestimation by 28% (2.1 million euro) and 305% (5.8 million euro) and an underestimation by 43% (104 million euro), respectively. In two of the three case studies, the performance of the model improved, when updated with empirical damage data from the area of interest. This approach represents a step forward in European wide flood risk modeling, since it delivers consistent flood loss estimates and inherently provides uncertainty information. Further validation and tests with respect to adapting the model to different European regions are recommended

Development and assessment of uni- and multivariable flood loss models for Emilia-Romagna (Italy)

Flood loss models are one important source of uncertainty in flood risk assessments. Many countries experience sparseness or absence of comprehensive high-quality flood loss data, which is often rooted in a lack of protocols and reference procedures for compiling loss datasets after flood events. Such data are an important reference for developing and validating flood loss models. We consider the Secchia River flood event of January 2014, when a sudden levee breach caused the inundation of nearly 52km2 in northern Italy. After this event local authorities collected a comprehensive flood loss dataset of affected private households including building footprints and structures and damages to buildings and contents. The dataset was enriched with further information compiled by us, including economic building values, maximum water depths, velocities and flood durations for each building. By analyzing this dataset we tackle the problem of flood damage estimation in Emilia-Romagna (Italy) by identifying empirical uni- and multivariable loss models for residential buildings and contents. The accuracy of the proposed models is compared with that of several flood damage models reported in the literature, providing additional insights into the transferability of the models among different contexts. Our results show that (1) even simple univariable damage models based on local data are significantly more accurate than literature models derived for different contexts; (2) multivariable models that consider several explanatory variables outperform univariable models, which use only water depth. However, multivariable models can only be effectively developed and applied if sufficient and detailed information is available

Potential Energy Surface for H_2 Dissociation over Pd(100)

The potential energy surface (PES) of dissociative adsorption of H_2 on Pd(100) is investigated using density functional theory and the full-potential linear augmented plane wave (FP-LAPW) method. Several dissociation pathways are identified which have a vanishing energy barrier. A pronounced dependence of the potential energy on ``cartwheel'' rotations of the molecular axis is found. The calculated PES shows no indication of the presence of a precursor state in front of the surface. Both results indicate that steering effects determine the observed decrease of the sticking coefficient at low energies of the H_2 molecules. We show that the topology of the PES is related to the dependence of the covalent H(s)-Pd(d) interactions on the orientation of the H_2 molecule.Comment: RevTeX, 8 pages, 5 figures in uufiles forma

Contribution of the nucleon-hyperon reaction channels to K−^- production in proton-nucleus collisions

The cross sections for producing K$^-$ mesons in nucleon-hyperon elementary processes are estimated assuming one-pion exchange and using the experimentally known pion-hyperon cross sections. The results are implemented in a transport model which is applied to calculation of proton-nucleus collisions. In significant difference to earlier estimates for heavy-ion collisions the inclusion of the nucleon-hyperon cross section roughly doubles the K$^-$ production in near-threshold proton-nucleus collisions

The high-energy environment in the super-earth system CoRoT-7

High-energy irradiation of exoplanets has been identified to be a key influence on the stability of these planets' atmospheres. So far, irradiation-driven mass-loss has been observed only in two Hot Jupiters, and the observational data remain even more sparse in the super-earth regime. We present an investigation of the high-energy emission in the CoRoT-7 system, which hosts the first known transiting super-earth. To characterize the high-energy XUV radiation field into which the rocky planets CoRoT-7b and CoRoT-7c are immersed, we analyzed a 25 ks XMM-Newton observation of the host star. Our analysis yields the first clear (3.5 sigma) X-ray detection of CoRoT-7. We determine a coronal temperature of ca. 3 MK and an X-ray luminosity of 3*10^28 erg/s. The level of XUV irradiation on CoRoT-7b amounts to ca. 37000 erg/cm^2/s. Current theories for planetary evaporation can only provide an order-of-magnitude estimate for the planetary mass loss; assuming that CoRoT-7b has formed as a rocky planet, we estimate that CoRoT-7b evaporates at a rate of about 1.3*10^11 g/s and has lost ca. 4-10 earth masses in total.Comment: 5 pages, accepted for publication by Astronomy & Astrophysic

Preface: Natural hazard event analysis for risk reduction and adaptation

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Three-Dimensional Fermi Surface of Overdoped La-Based Cuprates

We present a soft x-ray angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy study of the overdoped high-temperature superconductors La$_{2-x}$Sr$_x$CuO$_4$ and La$_{1.8-x}$Eu$_{0.2}$Sr$_x$CuO$_4$. In-plane and out-of-plane components of the Fermi surface are mapped by varying the photoemission angle and the incident photon energy. No $k_z$ dispersion is observed along the nodal direction, whereas a significant antinodal $k_z$ dispersion is identified. Based on a tight-binding parametrization, we discuss the implications for the density of states near the van-Hove singularity. Our results suggest that the large electronic specific heat found in overdoped La$_{2-x}$Sr$_x$CuO$_4$ can not be assigned to the van-Hove singularity alone. We therefore propose quantum criticality induced by a collapsing pseudogap phase as a plausible explanation for observed enhancement of electronic specific heat